Emerging markets are the car industryÂ’s big hope. But it wonÂ’t be an easy ride
Not all is doom and gloom. Mature vehicle markets may be close to saturation, but there is huge unsatisfied demand in the big emerging car markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China (the so-called BRICs). Although not immune from the rich countriesÂ’ troubles, they are likely to suffer much less. For one thing, levels of personal debt are far lower and a smaller proportion of cars are bought on credit. For another, the BRIC economies have been expanding so fast that even a slowdown should still leave them with growth rates that look respectable to Western eyes.
One measure of the BRIC countriesÂ’ new importance to the car industry is that, recession or not, global car sales in 2008 may still hit an all-time record of about 59m. For the first time passenger-vehicle sales in the BRICs, at around 14m, are likely to overtake those in America, which are expected to be the worst since 1992. |