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| Science & Technology |
| How long will oil last? (Popular Mechanics article) |
| 2008-04-11 |
| Posted under Non-WoT, but could very well be placed under WoT-Politix! Saw the magazine last night at store, so figured I'd share the "knowledge wealth" EXPANDING SUPPLY These days everyone is worried about oil. The primitive black goo has been linked to climate change, economic disruption and other problems, but make no mistake: We still need oil, and lots of it. Not only is American demand rising—this year it’s expected to top 21 million barrels per day—but ascendant economies in India and China have developed huge appetites for the stuff. The stark reality is that the supply is finite. "Peak oil" theorists argue that production is already maxed out, meaning imminent shortages and sharper price spikes; more optimistic experts believe that day is 20 to 30 years away. Both camps agree that the task ahead is twofold: Develop new supplies while learning to stretch existing reserves. The Relentless Search There has not been a major find on U.S. soil since Prudhoe Bay in 1968, which means most major exploration has moved to the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where drilling and production are difficult and expensive. Last year, a Chevron-led consortium announced the discovery of the Jack field, 270 miles off Louisiana. It may hold 15 billion barrels, which would more than double domestic reserves. Boy, howdy, that'd be a welcome relief. "The technology that is being brought to bear is phenomenal," says energy writer Robert Bryce, author of Gusher of Lies. "What we are seeing today in offshore drilling is the terrestrial version of the space program." Bryce is among those pushing to open offshore leases along the East and West coasts currently under federal moratorium but estimated to hold as much as 19 billion barrels of oil and 86 trillion cu. ft. of natural gas. So, let me get this straight. We just found a Gulf reserve that could double our domestic reserves and there's another 50+% (on top of those 2 reserves) there in offshore "banned" areas (tripling our domestic reserves, without even tapping the oil shale out west)? Tapping vast unconventional sources that don’t flow to the surface is also hugely challenging. The oil sands of Alberta, Canada, contain 175 billion barrels of proven reserves—the largest in the world outside Saudi Arabia—but the oil costs as much as $15 per barrel to produce, compared to $2 for Saudi crude. Likewise, shale deposits in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming hold promise, but no one has yet figured out how to extract them at a profit. Royal Dutch Shell has placed a $200 million bet that it can unlock Colorado’s Green River Formation, which could produce 4 million barrels per day—20 percent of current U.S. consumption. That doesn't even include the "light crude" in the recently announced oil-shale formation in the Dakotas??? Pretty cool how $100+/barrel can "spur" new finds, eh? More at link, including info on efficiencies of "Enhanced Recovery" wells, etc. |
| Posted by:BA |
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| Posted by: badanov 2008-04-11 22:31 |
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| Posted by: Harcourt Jush7795 2008-04-11 19:12 |
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| Posted by: mhw 2008-04-11 18:33 |
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| Posted by: Laurence of the Rats 2008-04-11 14:34 |
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| Posted by: Herman Phusotle4913 2008-04-11 13:51 |