The U-turn on Iran by U.S. spy agencies, the biggest since the Iraq debacle five years ago, is the result of “physical” intelligence, probably a defector, according to various diplomatic and security sources in Washington.
One of the main figures in the frame is General Ali-Reza Asgari, a former Deputy Defence Minister and Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander. General Asgari apparently disappeared in Turkey over the past 12 months, having either defected or been kidnapped, and may be in U.S. hands.
Other senior intelligence officials, quoted in the New York Times, argue that the turnaround may not have been the result of a single defector but pointed to an analysis of video footage of a tour by foreign journalists of IranÂ’s nuclear facility at Natanz in 2005. During his press conference on Tuesday, U.S. President George W. Bush said he first heard about the national intelligence estimate report in August, when Mike McConnell, Director of National Intelligence since February, approached him. But he added that he had only had confirmation by Mr. McConnell last week.
The President admitted that the U.S. intelligence-gathering in Iran had been difficult since its 1979 revolution. Work on the latest NIE report on Iran has been under way for more than a year. The NIE is the consensus view of the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies. |