Iran halted its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 and has not restarted it since, a stunning new assessment released by America's intelligence agencies has found.
The findings, published yesterday, contradict an assessment by US intelligence officials two years ago that Tehran was seeking nuclear weapons and appeared to undercut President Bush's repeated and ominous warnings about a nuclear-armed Iran.
As recently as August Mr Bush gave warning that Iran's pursuit of nuclear technology could lead to a nuclear holocaust and that the US and its allies “will confront this danger before it is too late”. In October he warned that a nuclear-armed Iran could lead to a third world war.
Last night, however, Mr Bush's closest aides claimed that the finding was vindication for the White House's focus on a muscular but diplomatic approach to Iran.
The report, the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report — the consensus view of all 16 US intelligence agencies — said that Iran still continued to enrich uranium, which meant that it might be able to develop a weapon between 2010 and 2015 if it restarted its weapons programme. It also said that Iran's ultimate goal was still to develop the capability to produce a nuclear weapon.
But it adds: “Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons programme suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons that we have been judging since 2005.” Two years ago the NIE stated with “high confidence” that Iran was pursuing the nuclear bomb.
Yesterday's assessment said Iran's ultimate intentions about acquiring a nuclear weapon remained unclear, but that Tehran's “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs”.
It added: “Some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways might — if perceived by Iran's leaders as credible — prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program.”
The assessment is being published five years after the release of another report by the NIE which claimed that Iraq possessed chemical and biological weapons and was pursuing the nuclear bomb. The report was one of the most important pieces of evidence used by the White House to justify the invasion of Iraq.
It also comes amid a presidential campaign in which the issue of Iran has eclipsed Iraq as the most pressing foreign policy challenge facing America. Anti-Iranian rhetoric has been particularly bellicose among several leading Republican candidates.
The report addresses claims by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the President of Iran, that Tehran has 3,000 centrifuges enriching uranium. It says that Iran might have the centrifuges, but it is having technological difficulties in making them work.
Stephen Hadley, Mr Bush's National Security Adviser, said the report “offers some positive news”.
He added: “It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons. It tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does not happen.
“But the intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem.
“The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically — without the use of force — as the Administration has been trying to do. And it suggests that the President has the right strategy: intensified international pressure along with a willingness to negotiate a solution.”
Last month the International Atomic Energy Agency, the world's nuclear watchdog, reported that Iran was operating 3,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges, but it said it was unclear whether the country was pursuing a nuclear weapon. | Sure. Those centrifuges could be to make ice cream instead. Really hot ice cream. |
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