Analyst Dominique Dwor-Frocaut of Barclays Capital Research has written a very interesting analysis of North Korea's economic and financial policies. Download the full PDF document here: Download file (Please be patient.. it may take a little time to load.)
Her conclusions include:
- "The North Korean economy does not seem about to collapse" (contrary to what many out there might think).
- As time goes by we are likely to see "the development of an uneasy coexistence with the US".
- There are some signs of improvement in the North Korea's economy thanks to recent reforms. The growth will remain very slow, but the regime has built in "coping mechanisms" that will prevent collapse.
- "A slow income growth could be supportive of political stability because it would make it easier for the regime to control popular expectations."
- What the Chinese would call peaceful evolution is possible: "Political and economic stability would, over the longer term, see the completion of the transition from a planned to a market economy and greater integration of North Korea into the global economy. This in turn, could support a long-term normalisation of North Korea's diplomatic relations with the external world."
|