A lack of resolve may have effects worse than can be imagined, writes Aaron Friedberg.
After four years of bluster and build-up, North Korea has finally reached the nuclear finish line. Last week it announced its intention to step across.
At every point along the way, North Korea has telegraphed its intentions, first announcing that it would withdraw from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and reprocess plutonium, then declaring that it already possessed a "deterrent force" and now proclaiming that it will conduct a weapons test. In this way, it has probed the resolve of those seeking to stop it, extorting economic rewards for simply showing up at the negotiating table while forcing the world to adjust to the idea that it either already is, or soon will be, a member of the nuclear club.
In keeping with past practice, North Korea will probably not test right away, preferring to see what new concessions it can extract. Unless it encounters a tougher and more unified response than it has to date, it will probably follow through on its latest threat. On the nuclear issue, at least, Kim Jong-il has proved a man of his word.
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