A report issued last month by the Century Foundation warns that some in the Bush administration are making the case for air strikes aimed not only at setting back Iran's nuclear programme, but also at toppling the country's government. The report's author, retired Air Force Colonel Sam Gardiner, says that these officials are undeterred by the concerns of military leaders about whether such attacks would be effective. "If this uncertainty does not appear to worry the proponents of air strikes in Iran it is in no small part because the real US policy objective is not merely to eliminate the nuclear programme, but to overthrow the regime," according to him. "It is hard to believe, after the misguided talk prior to Iraq of how American troops would be greeted with flowers and welcomed as liberators, but those inside and close to the administration who are arguing for an air strike against Iran actually sound as if they believe the regime in Tehran can be eliminated by air attacks," the author adds.
The report titled ‘The End of the ‘Summer of Diplomacy’: assessing US military options on Iran,’ claims that the policymakers’ plan is to use targeted air strikes to kill the leadership and “enable the people” of Iran to take over the government. The assumption is that more reasonable, US-friendly, leadership will emerge. Gardiner argues that the plan is dangerously flawed and would more likely yield very different results. “No serious expert on Iran believes the argument about enabling a regime change,” he reveals. “On the contrary, whereas the presumed goal is to weaken or disable the leadership and then replace it with others who would improve relations between Iran and the United States, it is far more likely that such strikes would strengthen the clerical leadership and turn the United States into Iran’s permanent enemy.”