The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season wonÂ’t be as bad as earlier predicted. ThatÂ’s according to the noted hurricane research team from Colorado State University which has revised its hurricane predictions.
In May, the CSU team formed by pioneer forecaster William Gray had predicted the 2006 season would bring 17 storms and that nine would become hurricanes.
The team has reduced the number of named storms from seventeen to fifteen. It also reduced the number of likely hurricanes from nine to seven and intense hurricanes from five to three.
The CSU forecast is updated several times each year.
The fact that there have only been two named storms in July is not the reason for the revision, Professor William Gray said.
Several factors suggest less activity, he said. Atlantic sea surface temperatures are not quite as warm and surface pressure is not quite as low. Also, the eastern equatorial Pacific has warmed some and trade winds in the tropical Atlantic are slightly stronger.
Gray and his team say hurricane activity will continue to be above average and will continue to be for another 15 to 20 years.
Last year produced a record 28 tropical storms, topping the old mark of 21 set in 1933. Fifteen turned into hurricanes and four of those were Category 5, the most destructive type. |