According to EUROCHAMBRES, the Association of European Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the economic performance of the EU is about 20 years behind that of the US. A study* presented by the business organisation at its pre-spring summit Business Forum in Brussels today compares the EU to the US in terms of GDP, R&D, productivity and employment by ''time distances'' between the two regions and forecasts how many years the EU will take to catch up with the US, and under what conditions of growth.
Commenting on the results, Arnaldo Abruzzini, Secretary General of EUROCHAMBRES, said: ''The US has a clear economic time lead, even increasing it after 2000. The current EU levels in GDP, R&D investment, productivity and employment were already reached by the US in the late 70s/early 80s. Even the most optimistic assumptions show it will take the EU decades to catch up and this only if there is considerable EU improvement. European leaders must set a clear signal in favour of the economy at the Spring Summit!'' The time-lags for the various key indicators are as follows:
Employment: Europe's employment level for 2003 was achieved be the US in 1978. It will take the EU until 2023 to reach US levels of employment, and then only if EU employment growth will exceed that of the US by 0.5% p.a.
R&D: Europe's R&D investment for 2002 was achieved by the US in 1979. It will take the EU until 2123 to reach US levels of R&D investment, and then only if EU investment will exceed that of the US by 0.5% p. a.
Income: Europe's income for 2003 was achieved by the US in 1985. It will take the EU until 2072 to reach US levels of income per capita, and then only if EU income growth will exceed that of the US by 0.5% p. a.
Productivity: Europe's level of productivity for 2003 was achieved by the US in 1989. It will take the EU until 2056 to reach US productivity rates per employed, and then only if EU productivity growth will exceed that of the US by 0.5%.
What happened to Lisbon? Taking over the U. S. by 2010?
Obviously, taking in the 10 eastern nations last year screws up the numbers a lot and these countries should have above average growth while they play catch-up. This study was commissioned by an organization that will probably show up in Brussels this morning with palms up. But the aggregate numbers are also meaningful as the frogs and friends think they can put together a bigger market than the U. S. that challenges us for world leadership. Deckchairs. |