The presidential race is a virtual dead heat between President Bush and Democratic candidate John Kerry as the Democratic convention approaches, according to a Los Angeles Times poll released Thursday. Kerry leads Bush by 2 percentage points nationally in both a two-way race and in a three-way contest including independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to the poll posted on the newspaper's Web site. In a three-way contest, Kerry led 46 percent to Bush's 44 percent, with Nader at 3 percent and 7 percent undecided. Kerry's lead is within the poll's margin of error and smaller than his advantage last month in a Times poll.
While 51 percent approved of Bush's job performance and 48 percent disapproved, the survey included some narrow majorities unhappy with the direction Bush has taken the country. Fifty-four percent said the nation is moving in the wrong direction, down from 58 percent in last month's poll, and 51 percent said the war in Iraq was not justified. One-third of voters said they don't know enough about Kerry to decide whether he would make a better president than Bush. The paper's June poll had similar results. Asked who is more likely to flip-flop on issues, 43 percent named Kerry and 31 percent picked Bush. Kerry's selection of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as his vice presidential candidate was well-received by those surveyed. Fifty-nine percent described the pick as excellent or good, while 26 percent saw it as fair or poor. The telephone poll surveyed 1,529 registered voters nationwide from Saturday to Wednesday. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
I ususally avoid polls because I think they are 'fuzzy' math when it comes to the elections. However if the LA Times says the race is a dead heat, you can bet the Bush has a lead between 5 to 10 points. Just prior to the recall election the LA Times said the recall measure was a 'dead heat' and that Arnold/Cruz were in a 'dead heat'. We all know what happened on election day. |