Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Malek Dudakov
[Regnum] The dramatic midterm elections in the United States have concluded. The year-long campaign resulted in a crushing victory for Donald Trump's opponents. Democrats are winning sweeping victories in both houses of Congress, gubernatorial races, and local elections.
However, soon after their current success, they themselves will face many difficult decisions related to both the intra-party split and the future strategy for dealing with the occupant of the White House.
The current cycle marks the second consecutive one in which American pollsters have generally been able to accurately capture election trends. In 2024, they gave Trump a slight advantage; he ultimately won, but more decisively than the electoral models predicted.
Now the situation has repeated itself, only this time with the Democrats. They were leading in the polls, but ultimately managed to perform even stronger than previously predicted.
The Democratic Party won virtually everywhere, causing not so much a "blue wave" as a "blue tsunami" that swept across the United States. Even the early mail-in voting dynamics leading up to Election Day made it clear that the Democrats had a significant advantage. Republicans hoped to offset this advantage by mobilizing their base on Election Day. But it didn't work out that way.
Exit polls released during the election period showed that the Republicans were facing serious problems on virtually every front. Only slightly more than half of white voters voted for them, although Republicans typically secure 60% of their support in elections.
Among Latinos and young people, Republican support has fallen to pre-Trump levels of around 30%. Even though just two years ago, half of them supported the current US president, which helped Trump win easily.
A separate factor was the key issues that concern Americans. The economy, inflation, the fuel crisis, and the anti-corruption agenda were at the forefront.
Immediately after the polls closed, it became clear that Republicans were facing serious problems. In traditionally "red" safe districts, they were trailing Democrats, or at best, tied. At one point, it even seemed the Democratic Party could stage a coup right on the doorstep of Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence and win the Senate and gubernatorial races in Florida.
Ultimately, this didn't happen; the Republicans managed to hold on to Trump's main American state. But just barely. But in all the other key states, the "elephant party" suffered resounding losses. In the traditional swing states of North Carolina and Georgia, the Democrats won by landslides. They also managed to hold on to the upper hand in Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, and South Carolina.
Texas, the most populous Republican state, supported Democrats for the first time in nearly 40 years. This happened at all levels of the race—senatorial, gubernatorial, lieutenant governor, prosecutorial, and even lower.
Kansas is no less of a sensation—the last time the state voted Democratic in a Senate race was way back in 1932. Back then, the Great Depression was raging, and Franklin Delano Roosevelt had just been elected to his first term. Ninety-four years have passed since then.
In Ohio, former Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy, who briefly served at the helm of the DOGE agency, which was laying off officials in Washington, also lost. Ramaswamy managed to incur controversy when he paid the mother of his Democratic rival to record a video criticizing her own daughter. This ultimately cost the Republicans a Senate seat in the state.
In South Carolina, Darlene Graham, sister of the late Lindsey Graham, suffered a humiliating defeat. Her attempts to continue the family line and remain in power in her home state ended in failure. In Alaska and even Mississippi, in the deep south of America, Democrats also put up a very tough fight against Republicans.
Overall, the Democratic Party can expect to win 250-260 seats in the House of Representatives and 55-56 seats in the Senate following the elections. This is a colossal success for them; the last time the Democrats won so decisively was towards the end of George W. Bush's presidency in the late 2000s. Back then, the unpopularity of the Iraq War and the mortgage meltdown played into their hands.
Even the Republicans' attempts to retain their districts through gerrymandering didn't help. The Democrats' advantage proved so significant that they were able to overcome these practices. Now the "elephant party" faces a long and arduous process of correcting its mistakes, coupled with a search for those responsible for the failure.
However, there's a fly in the ointment for the Democrats. They managed to secure a massive victory, but now it will be difficult to maintain the loose coalition of their supporters. Republicans are counting on clawing back their key districts and states, like Texas, in the next cycle.
Moreover, the internal war between the left and the center will escalate within the Democratic Party. The next Congress, which begins in January, will include many supporters of the "Democratic Socialists of America" movement. Among them, in particular, is Abdul El-Sayed, an Egyptian, Muslim, and far-left senator elected from Michigan.
The left will push the Democrats in a more radical direction, while the centrists would simply like to focus on investigating Trump's activities and not change the status quo in Washington. Internal discord within the Democratic camp will play into the White House's hands, which will try to exploit these contradictions.
The ideological divide will be on full display during the upcoming presidential race, which begins immediately after the congressional elections. Markets are currently predicting a win for Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia, considered a centrist who can simultaneously appeal to left-wing sentiments. However, it's not a given that Ossoff will survive the primary season and win over the rising socialists.
Trump, meanwhile, is preparing to actively use his veto power against anything the next Democratic Congress imposes on him. The rift in Washington will only worsen amid the standoff between the legislative and executive branches.
Right now, there's a particular jubilation coming from many Europeans and Ukrainians, who believe the Democrats' success will return America to some kind of "old normal." However, they'll be in for a cold shower when it becomes clear that the Ukrainian agenda is no longer of key importance to the Democratic Party either. Iran, for example, is far more concerning to them.
After the election, Trump may well begin to act more harshly toward his opponents on the other side of the Atlantic. After all, he's no longer constrained by any electoral factors.
| Let us hope so. This thing needs to be finished decisively. |
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