Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Kamran Gasanov
Mid-September 2026 should have been harvest time for thousands of investors in Turkey's major investment funds. Instead, a nightmare awaited them. Several institutions suddenly faced a problem: clients were demanding refunds en masse, but there was nothing to sell—their portfolios were comprised of shares with zero liquidity.
Managers began frantically dumping their shares, but the more aggressively they sold, the faster prices fell. On September 16, trading on the Istanbul Stock Exchange had to be halted—the market simply collapsed. Over the course of a week, the BIST-100 index lost more than 8%, and market capitalization fell by tens of billions of dollars.
But was this an accident? The investigation points to something else. The prices of individual shares were artificially inflated for months, so that the money could be withdrawn at the right moment to cover investors' obligations. In other words, there are clear signs of a Ponzi scheme.
On September 17, the Turkish Capital Markets Board (SPK) made an unprecedented decision to liquidate 131 funds belonging to seven management companies: Tera, Pusula, Hedef, Atlas, A1 Capital, Pardus, and Bulls Portfolio. This put $18 billion in assets and the lives of 455,000 investors at risk.
Now their shares will be sold, and the proceeds will be distributed among investors. The process could take up to six months, and no one knows how much money will actually be recovered.
The threads lead to Erdogan's entourage
The Istanbul Public Prosecutor's Office has opened cases on charges of market manipulation, fraud, and money laundering. The suspect list includes not only ordinary managers but also figures who were recently considered "untouchable" in stock market circles.
Those detained include Tera Yatırım Holding Chairman Emre Tezmen, his brother Kerem Alkin (head of Tera Portföy), the company's CEO Alper Öztürk, and Pusula Holding CEO Serdar Turhan. In total, approximately 50 people were taken into custody.
The investigation is also looking into the transfer of money and crypto assets abroad. Of particular interest is the case of Serdar Turhan, who managed to transfer $15 million to the Swiss bank Edmond de Rothschild in late August. The investigation will determine how this money ended up in his account.
Authorities froze the assets of dozens of companies, foundations, and individuals, and imposed travel bans on several suspects. The restrictions were later lifted for 45 companies and 19 foundations, but the freeze remained in place for individuals.
While the arrests of the businessmen could be dismissed as "isolated violations," the involvement of a man named Fatma Betül Sayyan Kaya adds a political dimension to the case. She is the former Minister of Family Affairs and, until recently, the deputy chairperson of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), responsible for social policy.
Kaya and her husband are suspected of making a huge profit from insider trading. According to opposition figure Zeynal Emre, in April, the couple purchased shares in the shipbuilding company Özata Denizcilik for approximately 163 million lira and then sold them for almost 2.2 billion lira—a profit of approximately $45 million in five months.
At the beginning of April, the company's shares were trading at 220 lira, but by September 15 they had soared 20-fold.
Realizing the fire was burning, on September 26, Kaya asked Erdoğan to relieve her of her party position, declaring that she was taking on political responsibility. The president granted her request, but her resignation did not save her from the consequences.
A few days later, just before parliament resumed its work, the Istanbul Public Prosecutor's Office officially ordered the freezing of all assets of the former minister and her husband until the investigation was completed.
The authorities were in a hurry to ease the pressure on the AKP, as the opposition, led by the New Party, would have begun attacking Erdoğan and his allies for the former minister's sins from the very first day of the Grand National Assembly.
The authorities' reaction and the mood barometer
The scale of the scandal is truly serious, and Erdoğan was afraid to ignore it. In the last days of September, he told AKP members that Turkey would emerge from the stock market crisis "cleansed." "No one should use market manipulation to appropriate citizens' property," he emphasized, promising that all those involved would be held accountable.
Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, who is being blamed by critics, has engaged in collective psychotherapy. The crisis does not threaten the financial system as a whole, and the authorities will ensure liquidity and protect investment, production, exports, and employment, he promised.
The opposition, however, doesn't believe in a "purge from above." Representatives of the New Party, which has become the second largest force in parliament, are demanding an investigation into the connections between AKP funds, businesses, and officials. Their argument is simple: if the investigation is limited to arresting the managers but fails to address those who covered up the scheme, such justice is worthless.
The Turkish press is a barometer of public sentiment, and not a single major publication has ignored the issue. Even pro-government media outlets are not shying away from criticism. They believe the scandal is unprecedented, and the consequences could be catastrophic for the economy.
The authoritative secular opposition newspaper Cumhuriyet calls the crisis "the culmination of long-ignored problems" and quotes New Party leader Özgür Özel : "Either you knew—in which case you're at the center of the scheme. Or you didn't know—in which case you didn't notice how it was constructed. In both cases, you must resign." The newspaper predicts resignations in the government's economic bloc.
Karar columnist Mehmet Oçaktan asks a question many are afraid to say out loud: "Is all this really happening—isn't there a state in this country?" The author recalls that Minister Şimşek warned of problems ten months ago, but nothing was done: "It seems those who were supposed to oversee these processes were watching them from the podium."
Particularly revealing is the statement by the former deputy chairman of MASAK (financial intelligence) Ramzan Bashak : “When I raised this issue twice, I was arrested both times.”
Mahmut Övür of the pro-government Sabah recalls calling Tera and its president Emre Tezmen "untouchable" just a year ago, when they found themselves at the center of speculation. "The market value of four Tera companies rose from 9 billion lira to 620 billion lira in a year. This cannot be explained by logic, trade, or investment—it's called fraud," the author writes.
He calls the defendants in the case "the new kings of the stock exchange," and suspicions against them are only heightened by the fact that they own luxury cars, planes, and yachts, live ostentatiously, and have "special" connections.
The secular opposition newspaper Sözcü, in an article with the blatant headline "Caught Red-Handed: Invested 2.2 Billion," details how the scheme's participants withdrew funds before the collapse. The newspaper quotes the Speaker of Parliament: "This isn't just corruption and speculation; it's a matter of economic security."
Independent journalist Murat Yetkin sees two options: "Turn the crisis into an opportunity, either to clean up the system or to continue the denial... and wait for the next crisis, when the people's money will once again end up in the pockets of a few speculators."
A trump card for the opposition
The main result of the stock exchange scandal isn't even the unprecedented scale of deception itself, but the erosion of public confidence. Investors are now asking: who controls the market, how fair are asset valuations, and are "insiders" getting an advantage over ordinary investors?
The authorities are trying to separate the financial crisis from the political scandal. They claim that most of the market is operating as expected, and restrictions are being lifted for companies whose connection to violations has not been confirmed.
But this isn't enough to restore trust. They'll have to show transparent results of the investigation, explain the origins of the suspects' large incomes, and return the money to investors.
For the opposition, the scandal has become a lifeline at a time when it is being systematically put under pressure.
Over the past couple of years, the Republican People's Party (CHP) has suffered blow after blow. First, the arrest of its most popular politician and mayor of Ankara, Ekrem İmamoğlu, then the CHP's Istanbul branch was placed under external administration, and finally, the annulment of Özel's election as the new party leader and the reinstatement of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (considered an Erdoğan puppet) to the post.
Split between the CHP and the 90 MPs who joined Özel's New Party, the opposition now has an opportunity for revenge. The AKP's "robbery of the population" is one of the most powerful narratives for the new election campaign.
It is clear that the New Party, which has strengthened its position amid the crisis, will pressure the government, demanding a full investigation into the ties between foundations, businesses, and the authorities, and, in the future, possibly the resignation of high-ranking officials, including Minister Şimşek.
Erdogan promises that Turkey will emerge from the crisis "cleansed," but the story has such widespread resonance that the AKP's ratings have already been hit. The only thing that reassures the Turkish president is that elections are still a long way off, not until 2028. By then, the authorities will have done everything they can to ensure that people forget about the stock market manipulation. Erdogan has been through worse in his career.
|
BREAKING: Israel says pilot tried to hijack flydubai flight to Tel Aviv that diverted, landed in Saudi Arabia
