[David Robert's Blog] If by "losses" we mean military casualties—killed, wounded and missing—the precise figures are impossible to know. Both Russia and Ukraine keep their own losses secret or have strong incentives to present figures favourable to themselves. The best independent estimates therefore give ranges, rather than a single reliable number.
MILITARY LOSSES SINCE THE FULL-SCALE INVASION IN FEBRUARY 2022
The most useful recent independent estimate I can find is from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), published in July 2026:
CSIS estimates that Russian military casualties have been roughly 2—2.5 times Ukrainian casualties.
Oh dear. But how many of those deaths are hired cannon fodder — North Koreans, Syrians, all sorts of excess population from elsewhere?
These figures refer to the full-scale war since 24 February 2022, not the earlier fighting in Donbas from 2014—2022.
WHY THE FIGURES VARY SO MUCH
There is no authoritative running casualty count. Estimates are assembled from such things as:
battlefield intelligence;
satellite imagery of military cemeteries;
Ukrainian and Russian official announcements;
leaked Russian demographic and recruitment data;
confirmed individual deaths;
hospital and military reporting;
assessments by Western intelligence agencies.
For example, independent Russian sources have identified hundreds of thousands of individual Russian military deaths, but the true number is inevitably higher because not every death can be documented.
The Russian government does not publish a current figure for its military deaths. A recent Reuters report noted that independent estimates put Russian military deaths at over 350,000, while the Russian government continues not to disclose an updated total.
#1
I just stumbled onto Robert's Blog while searching for casualty figures. His is an interesting perspective on a number of topics. Some, possibly many, I do not agree with. His perspective and writings on global conflicts is worth exploring.
TASS opinion piece authored by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin
As the situation for Ukraine deteriorates and the inability to reverse the negative dynamics of the proxy war against Russia, which is detrimental to Kyiv, NATO is increasingly attempting to resort to direct military threats against Russia. Following the example of Adolf Hitler, who justified the attack on the USSR as a "preemptive strike," Western propaganda is churning out crude propaganda about repelling "Moscow aggression."
Meanwhile, the Kaliningrad Oblast is increasingly being openly declared the main target for a potential alliance strike.
LONG-STANDING PLANS AND FAILED REASONS.
The geographic vulnerability of the Kaliningrad Oblast as a semi-exclave surrounded by NATO countries has predetermined the increased attention it receives from Western planners. Simulations of a direct clash between Russia and the Alliance in the Suwalki Gap have been tested in strategic war games between the US and its allies since the 2010s.
The territories of northwestern Russia, the Baltic states, Poland, and Belarus are considered a single theater of military operations (TOMO) in the exercise scenarios. A blockade of Kaliningrad or a direct military attack on it is considered a provocation for a counteroffensive by the Russian Armed Forces from Belarus through the Baltic states to create a land corridor to the isolated region.
Many such Western simulations have documented the inability of the weak Baltic armies to withstand this onslaught, and therefore the inability to establish a full-fledged blockade of the Kaliningrad region or even seize it. This makes the current NATO deployment and modernization of the Baltic states' infrastructure all the more telling.
Sensing the alliance's support, the puppet Baltic regimes are no longer shy about issuing direct military threats. Thus, in mid-September, the new head of the Estonian Ministry of Defense, Martin Herem, declared a readiness to strike Russia's border military infrastructure, naming Ivangorod and Pechory as targets.
In practice, if war breaks out, the Baltic states' task is to hold back Russian forces while NATO attacks Kaliningrad. The core of the ground force should be the Polish army, with the active participation of Germany (whose elites are clearly not averse to ideas of historical revanchism and the return of the cradle of Prussian militarism).
Berlin is already concentrating mechanized units on the region's borders and in the Suwalki Gap, and is accelerating the formation of full-fledged Bundeswehr brigades in Lithuania and Poland.
FURTHERMORE, A NUMBER OF GENERAL SIGNS OF PREPARATION FOR A POTENTIAL WAR ARE BEING RECORDED:
The active modernization of roads, bridges, ports, and military pipelines; the deployment of fuel and ammunition storage systems near the Russian border; a sharp increase in defense spending and the mass production of conventional weapons.
The militaristic indoctrination of public opinion is persuading NATO citizens of the necessity of a military confrontation with Russia.
All these steps are disguised as "strategic ambiguity," as French President Emmanuel Macron calls it. Essentially, NATO is attempting to pressure Russia to abandon the goals of a special military operation and impose unfavorable terms for ending the conflict—for the sake of a subsequent, already open, occupation of Ukraine at the invitation of the local Nazi regime. Elements of "ambiguity" include speculation about the "expansion of the French nuclear umbrella" to all of Europe, the deployment of nuclear weapons in Finland and the Baltics, and Warsaw's nuclear ambitions.
Thus, the West seeks not only to extract political concessions but also to divert some forces and Russian defense resources from the Ukrainian theater of operations to strengthen the Leningrad Military District, the Arctic, and the Belarusian border.
This scenario has a historical antecedent. During the Russo-Turkish War of 1877–1878, when the Russian Empire was already finishing off the Ottoman Empire, it was the threat of war from the coalition of the German Reich, Austria-Hungary, and Britain that forced St. Petersburg to abandon the favorable Treaty of San Stefano and accept the abridged terms of the Congress of Berlin. Today, too, the "coalition of the willing" is attempting to exploit the threat of a world war to force Russia to make concessions on the Ukrainian issue.
Meanwhile, the modern West deliberately confuses actual war preparations with propaganda and disinformation campaigns to conceal the scale of NATO deployments and the timing of a potential attack (should such a political decision be made).
THE WMD ARGUMENT AND BLAMING THE CULPRIT
However, such a strategy has several limitations. Yes, Russia is undoubtedly forced to increase its military capabilities in the northwest of the country in order to respond to the growing direct threats from NATO. But the key point here is that even a hypothetical conflict between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance cannot remain within conventional frameworks.
NATO enjoys an overall advantage in demographics, combined GDP, and the number of conventional weapons. And the main deterrent for the alliance remains Russia's possession of the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. When Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov say that a clash with NATO will be "very brief," they are relying precisely on the doctrinal logic of ruling out a protracted conventional campaign—this includes attempts to seize Kaliningrad. I have no doubt that Moscow's priority in the event of an attack by the Alliance will be to realize its superiority in the number of nuclear warheads and their delivery systems. Russia is capable of inflicting unacceptable damage on the enemy's key centers—the capitals and major cities of most NATO countries.
Western planners are restrained from taking radical steps solely by the understanding that Moscow will not limit itself to diplomatic demarches. And the Kremlin's signals leave no doubt: Russia has no intention of playing by the imposed European scenarios.
So, if not for weapons of mass destruction (WMD), it's highly likely that a world war would have been underway long ago. And a new war under such circumstances is precisely that—a world war. However, I have no doubt that Russia would not be the initiator of such a war.
It's worth noting that, in addition to the disproportionate number of nuclear warheads, NATO faces a pressing air defense problem. The war in the Middle East and the Ukrainian conflict have depleted the arsenals of the US and Europe, creating a long-term shortage of interceptor missiles. Therefore, in an exchange of strikes, European capitals will be defenseless against Russia's latest ballistic and hypersonic systems.
Even under normal conditions, the use of missiles by Iran and the Yemeni Houthis has demonstrated that advanced Western air defense and missile defense systems are incapable of providing reliable interception. Russia, however, possesses even more sophisticated technologies for penetrating missile defenses, including the Avangard and Oreshnik systems. This makes the scenario of a nuclear conflict even more fatal for NATO.
Incidentally, an important doctrinal aspect of the Russian position is the clear identification of the culprit of a potential terminal crisis—the North Atlantic Alliance. This delicate statement is addressed not only to NATO elites (don't interfere, they'll kill you), but also to the states of the Global South. Moscow consistently demonstrates to the international community who exactly is a potential aggressor, ready to cross a dangerous line.
Unlike during the Berlin Congress, modern Russia has a compelling counterargument. This is the same argument that allowed the USSR to survive the Cuban Missile Crisis, forcing the US to withdraw nuclear missiles from Turkey and agree to new rules of coexistence. This gives Moscow the opportunity to resist blackmail from Western warmongers who, while losing their hybrid war in Ukraine, are attempting to threaten global escalation.
The current position of the Russian leadership makes it clear that Moscow is prepared to act decisively in the event of a critical threat to Russia's sovereignty. But is Europe prepared to risk its very existence for the sake of its elites' ambitions and an illusory victory? The concept of a "limited" nuclear conflict in the European theater of operations could certainly be advantageous to the United States, but in today's reality, it is unlikely that it would be confined to Europe.
Therefore, the Kaliningrad region is undoubtedly capable of becoming both the trigger for a new world war (just as Germany's invasion of Poland provoked a global catastrophe in 1939) and the point of a large-scale geopolitical compromise comparable to the 1962 denouement. However, as the Russian leadership has repeatedly noted, it is better not to let such scenarios reach their conclusion.
The West must acknowledge the collapse of the era of colonial domination and the fact that the world has finally embarked on the path of multipolarity. It is precisely the attempts of former hegemons to deny the new reality in which Russia determines its own destiny that create risks for humanity.
#3
#2 Funny thing. The more EUropeans bend over and spread it for their Muslim masters, the more belligerent they become toward Russia.
Posted by Grom the Reflective 2026-10-07 09:47||
[Promethean] Mike Steger examines trade, nuclear energy, and national defense through the history of the American System, connecting Kennedy’s industrial policies, Reagan’s research, and Trump’s Golden Dome.
Mike Steger examines President Trump’s approach to trade, energy, and national defense, arguing that these policies form part of a broader effort to revive the American System.
The discussion covers Iraqi energy infrastructure, Jamieson Greer’s remarks on international trade, and Kennedy’s support for industrial development at home and abroad. Mike connects these topics to his argument that national sovereignty depends on the ability to produce, build, and advance scientifically.
He also explores nuclear power, American shipbuilding, and emerging defense technologies before tracing the relationship between Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative, national laboratory research, and advanced semiconductor manufacturing. The episode concludes with his assessment of Golden Dome and the potential economic benefits of fundamental research.
[IsraelTimes] In Gaza, military says it has killed 4 Hamas chiefs, established 40 new outposts; reserve army expands by 36%; 30,000 security personnel treated by Defense Ministry rehab center
As the country marked the passage of three years since the onset of the multifront war on October 7, 2023, the Israel Defense Forces on Wednesday published new data about its operations on all fronts, from the number of rockets fired at Israel to the number of sites struck by the military.
The Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response... war began with the Hamas ..a contraction of the Arabic words for "frothing at the mouth",... -led invasion in southern Israel, during which gunnies rampaged through communities, an outdoor rave and military bases, massacring some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting 251 to the Strip.
Israel responded with a military campaign to topple the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip, destroy the terror group and free the hostages. The day after the Hamas assault, the Iran-backed Lebanese terror group Hezbollah began attacking along Israel’s northern border, saying it was acting in support of Gaza, a conflict that later escalated to all-out war. Israel also engaged in several rounds of fighting directly against Iran ...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate JewsZionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol... over the past three years, including major 12-day and 40-day wars in 2025 and earlier this year, respectively. Iran’s proxies in Yemen ...an area of the Arabian Peninsula sometimes mistaken for a country. It is populated by more antagonistic tribes and factions than you can keep track of... and Iraq also attacked Israel amid the fighting.
The fighting has largely subsided since an October 2025 ceasefire in Gaza, an April ceasefire in Iran, and a June truce in Leb ...The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else?... In all, since the start of the war, the Israeli military said it has carried out strikes on approximately 100,000 targets, including 65,000 in the Gaza Strip, 28,000 in Lebanon and Syria, 4,500 in Iran, and 80 in Yemen.
The war between Israel and Hamas has killed over 74,200 people in Gaza, including more than 1,400 since the October 2025 ceasefire, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, although the toll does not differentiate between combatants and civilians. The Israeli military believes that Hamas’s overall toll is largely accurate, with IDF officials estimating that two to three non-combatants were killed for every dead terror operative.
The IDF has said that it has killed over 24,000 combatants in Gaza and another estimated 1,600 gunnies inside Israel during the October 7 onslaught.
The IDF’s data said that since the October 7 attack, the military has killed four leaders of Hamas’s military wing, 17 brigade commanders and those of an equivalent rank, some 30 battalion commanders, and some 300 company commanders.
The IDF has assessed that Hamas is no longer the military and governing organization it was before October 7, but said the terror group "continues attempts to rebuild and rearm."
Gaza remains bisected into Israeli- and Hamas-controlled areas, and talks to bring about Hamas’s disarmament and the territory’s reconstruction have made only limited progress.
Israel has expanded its control in the Strip amid the ceasefire, from an initial 53% to around 63% currently. The IDF also now maintains some 40 army posts in the Israeli-held portion of the Strip.
In the West Bank, since October 7, the IDF said troops have arrested more than 45,000 wanted Paleostinians for questioning, including gunnies planning imminent attacks. More than 1,100 Paleostinians have been killed in the territory by Israeli forces or settlers since the war started, according to the West Bank-based Paleostinian Authority health ministry. The IDF has said the vast majority of them were button men killed in exchanges of fire, rioters who clashed with troops, or gunnies carrying out attacks.
Also in the West Bank, the IDF said troops had seized more than 3,800 weapons, as well as NIS 46 million ($15.1 million) in cash intended for terrorism.
Since the beginning of the war, over 31,500 rockets, missiles, and drones have been launched at Israel from multiple fronts, according to the IDF’s latest data.
The numbers included 10,200 projectiles fired from Gaza — at least 5,000 on October 7 alone — 20,000 from Lebanon, around 50 from Syria, 90 from Yemen, and 1,200 from Iran. The IDF did not detail how many drones and missiles had been launched from Iraq at Israel amid the war.
The figures did not include rockets — said by Israel to be in the thousands at minimum — launched by Gazook terror groups that misfired and landed in the Strip, those launched by Hezbollah that landed short in Lebanon, and ballistic missiles launched by Iran that failed to reach Israel.
CASUALTIES AND RESERVE DUTY
A total of 970 soldiers, reservists, and local security officers have been killed, and another 6,424 have been maimed in the war since October 7. Of them, 472 were killed and 3,004 were maimed during the ground offensive in Gaza, according to the IDF’s data.
The military said that more than 70% of soldiers maimed in the war returned to service.
Among the 970 fallen soldiers, 85 were killed due to friendly fire and other military-related accidents during the war, according to the IDF’s data.
Separately, on Tuesday, the Defense Ministry said more than 30,000 maimed soldiers and security personnel have sought treatment through its Rehabilitation Department since the war began.
Some 63 percent are receiving care for psychological conditions, including post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety, depression and difficulties surrounding reintegration into civilian life.
The ministry said the total number of maimed from all of Israel’s wars under the department’s care reached 91,200, a number that is expected to surpass 100,000 by 2028, with roughly half expected to be coping with psychological harm.
The rehab department deals with maimed veterans from all of Israel’s security bodies, not just the IDF.
According to the ministry, of those maimed since the start of the October 7 war, 63 are classified as having over 100% disability — the most severe level of injury; 249 have severe head injuries; 29 are suffering from blindness; and 106 are amputees.
Also, according to the data, women make up 8% of security personnel maimed in the past three years, while 62% are reservists.
Meanwhile,
...back at the wine tasting, Vince was about to start on his third quart... the military said that its reserve army had grown by some 36% since the start of the war, with several new units for reservists established in the past three years and some 22,000 ex-soldiers returning to service despite having been granted exemptions from reserve duty.
Hundreds of thousands of reservists have been called up during the war. The IDF said that in the past three years, new standing army units were also established to reduce the strain on the reserve army.
This year, the military said combat reservists are expected to serve on average between 80 and 100 days in reserve duty, compared to the military’s initial estimate of 55 days per year, "due to evolving operational needs."
At a military conference on Sunday, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said the army was concluding its investigations into the October 7 onslaught, "out of an understanding of the magnitude of the disaster, alongside the understanding that we must not become mired in them, but rather learn, draw lessons, implement them, and move forward."
"One of our greatest lessons from October 7 is the need to expand the security margin. We need to build the IDF’s force structure to meet challenges and threats across multiple arenas. The size of the IDF is our strategic depth," he said, according to a readout of his remarks published by the military.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
..a contraction of the Arabic words for "frothing at the mouth",...
BREAKING: Israel says pilot tried to hijack flydubai flight to Tel Aviv that diverted, landed in Saudi Arabia
