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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Pause to Disguise: West Prepares for Main Task in Iran
2025-06-25
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semenov

[REGNUM] The temporary pause in mutual attacks between Israel, the US and Iran so far leaves more questions than it answers.

Given that neither side has achieved its objectives,
…Iran has not erased Israel, but Israel has severely damaged Iran’s nuclear program, killed or wounded many of its civilian and military leaders, and made a severe dent in Iran’s war matériel, hindering both their ability to wage war and rule the country. Also, there’s that little thing about Israel wiping out most of the leadership, funding, and war matériel of Hamas and Hezbollah, and the ports used by the Houthis, severely reducing the ability of Iran’s catspaws to attack Israel at home, though they are thus far mostly untouched in Europe and the Americas…
a new escalation can be expected soon. Although it is also likely that Iran's opponents will move to a new stage and focus their efforts on subversion within the country in order to bring about a change of power and the dismantling of the Islamic Republic.

NEW METHODS OF OVERTHROW
In the event of a long-term truce, Washington and Tel Aviv are counting on the Yugoslav scenario being launched in Iran. Then, strikes on the country caused significant damage and, although not immediately, paved the way for a “color revolution” and a change of power.

Trump has most likely generally accepted Israel's view on the need to dismantle the political system of the Islamic Republic. At the same time, the range of possible actions to achieve this goal is very wide, including the assassination of Iran's supreme leader, which could trigger revolutionary events.

Therefore, what is happening is a serious challenge for Russia as well. Iran is being used to develop elements of future subversive activities against both us and China, Donald Trump's main adversary.

First of all, the creation and launch of not only effective terrorist and sabotage networks, but also cells engaged in subversive activities through the dissemination of narratives favorable to the United States and Israel and organizing protests in Iranian society is being tested.

Perhaps the previous principles and methods of "color revolutions" that worked against weak political regimes, such as those in Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, etc., have already been revised. They have proven ineffective against countries such as Russia or Iran.

It is also worth recalling that the subversive actions of the US and Israel in Iran occurred immediately after Operation Spider Web, when strategic aviation bases were attacked by sabotage terrorist groups using drones from Russian territory. And earlier, there were explosions of transport infrastructure, murders of Russian generals and public figures.

Both operations—the actions of cells in both Iran and Russia—followed similar algorithms, so they most likely had a single foreign coordination and decision-making center.

If we consider the geopolitical consequences, then, by continuing their subversive activities against the Islamic Republic, the United States and Israel also intend to destroy the “One Belt, One Road” and “North-South” transport corridor systems that are being built.

Therefore, the actions of the American-Israeli bloc are a common threat, and it would be good if it led to strengthening cooperation in the Moscow-Tehran-Beijing triangle with the possible involvement of Pakistan to the extent that it does not cost the break in the strategic partnership with India.

A LIBERAL SHOWCASE WITH RADICAL CONTENT
Naturally, if the enemies of the Islamic Republic aim to change power in the country, then they must prepare a leader who will personify a new Iran “without mullahs, hijabs and Sharia.”

The most acceptable candidate was chosen to be the shahzade, that is, the prince, the son of the last shah, Muhammad Pahlavi, who, like his grandfather, the founder of the dynasty, bears the name Reza.

As early as February 2025, Pahlavi was chosen by various fringe factions of the Iranian opposition as their leader and head of a future transitional government “until the formation of the first national assembly and the beginning of democratic rule through free elections.”

In reality, however, his supporters do not wield any real influence within the country. Reza, like his father, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was never a popular leader.

Reza Pahlavi, the grandfather, the first shah of the dynasty, essentially usurped power after a military coup and declared himself the new monarch in 1925, rather than establish a republic in Iran. In this sense, both shahs resemble the father and son of the Assad family in Syria, who led the country to collapse and revolution.

Therefore, the legitimacy of the Pahlavis themselves is very conditional - they came to power through a coup and, by historical standards, soon lost power through a revolution. It is not possible to compare them with the Romanovs in Russia or other dynasties - overthrown, but having deep foundations for legitimacy.

At the same time, there are more serious opposition forces in Iran, which, unlike the freak monarchists, have their own networks of influence and can really lay claim to power in the event of a hypothetical collapse.

This includes, for example, the Organization of the Mujahideen of the Iranian People (OMIN), a revolutionary leftist-Islamist organization that waged armed struggle against the Islamic Republic for a long time while in Saddam Hussein's camp. The ideology of this organization is a mixture of Marxist, Leninist and Islamist positions.

The MEK participated in the Islamic Revolution in Iran, but then lost the struggle for power to the "Khomeinists" and its supporters were subjected to repression. The mujahideen responded to this with a wave of terror and mass murder of supporters of the new authorities.

The MEK had its own National Army of Liberation of Iran (NAL), based in Iraq and numbering 7,000 fighters. In 1988, six days after Ayatollah Khomeini announced his acceptance of a UN-brokered ceasefire, the NLA advanced under heavy Iraqi air cover, crossed the border, and captured the city of Islamabad-e-Gharb. But it was then driven back with heavy losses.

In 2003, the MEK and NAO, still based in Iraq, fought on Saddam's side against the US and its allies who had attacked Iraq, but a ceasefire was then agreed upon.

However, since 2009, the new Iraqi government, close to the Islamic Republic, has demanded that MEK leave Iraq. Then, pro-Iranian Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki announced that the group would be banned from basing itself on Iraqi territory. He backed up his statements with repression and arrests of its members.

After that, the US began to remove the organization's fighters from Iraq. At the same time, OMIN was removed from the terrorist lists, and the US was able to convince Albania to accept the remaining 2,700 NAO members who were brought to Tirana between 2014 and 2016. It is obvious that the CIA, by showing such patronage over OMIN, expected to use its resources in the future.

A 2008 report by the U.S. Army Intelligence Center said the MEK operates a large network of supporters in Iran, sparking debate among intelligence experts about whether Western powers should use the opportunity to better build their own intelligence picture of the Iranian regime’s goals and intentions.

Iran has also carried out operations to expose MEK networks, for example, in 2010 and 2011, Ali Saremi, Mohammad Ali Hajj Aghaei and Jafar Kazemi were executed for collaborating with the organization .

Donald Trump, even during his first presidency, wanted to use MEK against the Islamic Republic. In January 2018, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called French President Emmanuel Macron and asked him to order the expulsion of MEK from its French base in Auvers-sur-Oise, claiming that the organization had provoked the Iranian protests of 2017–2018.

The main base of the OMIN, however, remained Albania, where more than 4,000 of its members were located. There, during the Free Iran 2019 conference, former New York City Mayor and Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani described the group as a “government in exile,” saying it was a ready-made alternative to lead the country if the Iranian government fell.

Moreover, the Trump administration then stated that it did not rule out the MEK as a viable replacement for the current Iranian regime.

In turn, OMIN networks in Albania were subjected to cyber attacks in 2022, which the Albanian authorities blamed on Iran, leading to a rupture in diplomatic relations between the countries.

Thus, if the Shah is a kind of “face” of the pro-Western opposition, then in reality the change of power in the Islamic Republic will be carried out by networks of radical organizations such as OMIN.

Of course, it now positions itself as a respectable structure that shares Western values, but in reality this group has hardly moved far from its previous principles.

Therefore, even if we assume that the West will succeed in dismantling the current state system in Iran, this does not mean that they will succeed in bringing to power their own supporters, who are not an organized force.

GUARDIANS OF THE REVOLUTION
At the same time, there are serious obstacles to such plans for a change of power in Iran. Thus, despite the split in Iranian society, its pro-government part has united around the supreme leader.

It is a foundation that can withstand any pressure, even from the majority of Iranians themselves, who are unable to crack it until it cracks itself. However, its foundation still appears monolithic, despite attempts to drive wedges through military actions by the US and Israel.

At the core of this foundation is the very ideology of the Islamic Republic, the guardians and cement of which are the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Unlike the CPSU and the Komsomol of the late USSR, the IRGC is not just a party of supporters of the Islamic regime or special services, which are also there. The IRGC is a multi-million army, an armed force of supporters of the Islamic Republic and the ideas of the Islamic revolution, whose tentacles are present in all spheres of society, holding it back from disintegration.

And the opposition, even one as organized as OMIN, has nothing to counter this “monster” with.

It is pointless to look for complete analogues of the IRGC: this is a purely Iranian specificity. The formation of the Corps took place without looking back at any Western examples. And what it has now become - with its own industry, aviation, navy and special services - was clearly not envisaged at the time of its creation.

The IRGC emerged primarily as a military structure, a kind of guard during the war with Iraq. At that time, assault battalions were created from the most zealous Muslim supporters of the Islamic Revolution, which were then united into the divisions of "Prophet Mohammad", "Imam Hussein", "Ashura" and "Najaf", which became some of the most combat-ready during the Iran-Iraq war.

Initially these were formations designed to fight Iraq on the battlefield, but were recruited from motivated volunteers who later found wider use.

Thus, the IRGC rather reflects the Middle Eastern, Islamic specificity, and the most similar to it is probably the National Guard of Saudi Arabia. It arose from the religious militia of zealous Wahhabis, the "Ikhwan" (not to be confused with other "Ikhwan", the "Muslim Brotherhood").

The Saudi Ikhwan might have also secured for themselves powers as broad as those of the IRGC in Iran, if not for their conflict with the king, the unsuccessful uprising in 1929, and the transformation of those of them who remained loyal to the monarch despite their own understanding of religion into the National Guard. Instead of guardians of religion, they became guardians of the oil fields and borders of the House of Saud.

That is, both the Saudi Ikhwan and the IRGC are, first and foremost, defenders, guardians of religion and a state based on religious principles. And they must protect religion from enemies, both external and internal.

This is the main difference between the IRGC and the Iranian army. If the army must protect the state as a territory, then the IRGC stands guard over the Islamic revolution, its goals and ideals. Therefore, they are called upon to act both inside the country and far beyond Iran. That is why the range of tasks of the IRGC is much wider.

For example, for the "export of the Islamic revolution" there is the Al-Quds command - an organization with its own structure. It is intended for foreign operations, support of allied movements and countries.

That is, if we imagine the IRGC as a matryoshka doll, as a state within a state, then Al-Quds is also a state, a matryoshka doll, but already within the “IRGC state”. With its own separate intelligence structures, special forces, ground forces. And it seems that it will be difficult to find a suitable analogue for this.

The IRGC has its own intelligence and counterintelligence, but so does the Quds Force command. At the same time, the Islamic Republic itself as a state also has its own intelligence and counterintelligence, not connected to the IRGC.

But functions similar to those of, for example, our Federal Security Service are concentrated in the IRGC. The Ansar al-Mahdi unit operates to protect senior officials and religious centers, and the Supreme Leader himself is protected by the Wali-e Amr unit.

The IRGC also has rapid reaction forces and special operations forces that duplicate the army special forces, including the Saberin Takavor Brigade, the 110th Salman Farsi Special Operations Brigade, the 33rd Al-Mahdi Airborne Brigade and separate battalions in provincial corps. While in the Army, the Special Forces are represented by the 55th and 65th Brigades.

The IRGC's ground forces are organized into 32 infantry territorial corps, which were deployed from regular divisions from the Iran-Iraq War, combined with regular battalions and militias from the Basij command.

Unlike the army divisions, the IRGC divisions are mostly infantry. Although they do have tank units, they are significantly fewer than the army. There are probably 8 IRGC "operational" divisions deployed at all times in peacetime, but in wartime there may be more than 40.

The core of the land component in the provinces is the "Hussein Battalions", which are part of the Basij and serve as the basis for the reserve infantry divisions in wartime that will be deployed from the militias. These battalions can also be used as expeditionary forces. They have, for example, participated in the fighting in Syria.

Therefore, the Basij is not only the militia and reserve of the IRGC, but also the regular units. This includes the first-priority reserve and the so-called “army of 20 million” - a broader, mass militia that can be called up to suppress internal threats.

If the Hussein Battalions are the backbone of the IRGC ground forces, the equivalent of a territorial army in the provinces, then the Ali Battalions of the Basij Command are the equivalent of a gendarmerie aimed at suppressing unrest and counter-revolutionary rebellions. They work closely with the police and security forces.

The IRGC has created a multi-layered presence in Iranian society and has engaged in its activities in one form or another millions of people who are ready to stand up for the Islamic revolution at the first order. At least, this is what is expected of them.

This is the foundation, the basis on which the Iranian regime relies. And even if its supporters are in the minority, their unity and organization will most likely allow them to withstand the challenges and threats of internal destabilization.

Link


Iraq
Top Shiite politicians consolidate grip on power in Iraq’s local elections
2023-12-24
[Rudaw] Iraq’s former prime minister and a pro-Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
politician emerged as the main winners of Monday’s provincial elections in Iraq, according to official preliminary results.

The State of Law Coalition, led by former premier Nouri al-Maliki, gained most of the votes in Muthana province. It emerged second in Wasit, Najaf, Diwaniyah, Karbala, Maysan and Dhi Qar provinces and third in the oil-rich Basra as well as in the capital city of Baghdad, announced the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) in a presser on Tuesday.

The We Build Alliance, headed by Hadi al-Amiri, leader of the pro-Iran Badr Organization, performed extremely well in the polls. The alliance garnered most of the votes in Najaf, Diwaniyah, Babil, Maysan, and Dhi Qar province. It emerged as second in Basra and Baghdad provinces and third in Wasit, Karbala and Muthana provinces, according to the official preliminary results by the IHEC.

The IHEC announced that the results represented 94 percent of the counted votes.

Both Shiite alliances are among the main backers of Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s cabinet.

Maliki was the third winner of the 2021 parliamentary vote and Amiri was the fifth.

Moqtada Tater al-Sadr
...hereditary Iraqi holy man and leader of a political movement in Iraq. He had his hereditary rival al-Khoei assassinated shortly after the holy rival's appearance out of exile in 2003. Formerly an Iranian catspaw, lately he's gagged over some of their more outlandish antics, then went back to catspawry...
, whose Sadrist Movement, gained most of the seats in the parliamentary poll but later withdrew from the political scene boycotted Monday’s polls after labeling them as "corrupt elections." However,
a person who gets all wrapped up in himself makes a mighty small package...
 he called on his supporters not to attack the process.

The main Shiite winner in the elections is the National State Forces Alliance which includes Ammar al-Hakim’s National Wisdom Movement and former prime minister Haider al-Abadi’s Victory Party.

The overall voter turnout reached 41 percent, higher than the parliamentary elections in 2021 despite the boycott by influential holy man Sadr.

The councils were dissolved in 2019 in response to demands by Tishreen protesters who criticized the system for its failures and for enabling corruption. After several delays, the election date was set for December 18.

Iraq's long-anticipated provincial elections took place in 15 provinces, excluding the Kurdistan Region. The last provincial council elections took place in 2013, without Kirkuk.

The provincial councils were created by the 2005 Iraqi constitution following the fall of dictator Saddam Hussein’s regime. They hold significant power, including setting budgets for several key sectors such as education, health, and transport, but are accused of being rife with corruption.
Related:
Hadi al-Amiri: 2023-10-10 IRAQ (Actually Iran Shill) Threatens US
Hadi al-Amiri: 2023-07-30 Why Iraq thinks a plot is fanning the flames of its diplomatic crises
Hadi al-Amiri: 2022-01-02 Secretary-General of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq: the ''resistance'' will force the Americans to leave Iraq
Related:
Badr Organization: 2023-10-10 IRAQ (Actually Iran Shill) Threatens US
Badr Organization: 2023-09-05 Volunteer mobilization in Sinjar District for deployment in Syria, Source
Badr Organization: 2023-07-30 Why Iraq thinks a plot is fanning the flames of its diplomatic crises
Related:
Nouri al-Maliki: 2023-08-07 Iraq blocks Telegram over ‘national security’ concerns
Nouri al-Maliki: 2022-08-30 Day 2: Death toll rises to 15 amid Clashes after Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr resigned
Nouri al-Maliki: 2022-08-14 Sadrist Movement calls for 'million' demonstration in Baghdad
Related:
State of Law Coalition: 2022-04-01 Al-Sadr withdraws from negotiations to form the government, Al-Maliki starts talks
State of Law Coalition: 2022-01-16 No technocrats in the new government, source says
State of Law Coalition: 2022-01-11 Kataib Hezbollah: ''tough days will pass in Iraq''
Link


Iraq
Iraq blocks Telegram over ‘national security’ concerns
2023-08-07
[Rudaw] Iraq's Ministry of Communications on Sunday announced that the country was blocking popular messaging service Telegram, citing concerns over "national security" and threats to citizens’ personal data.

The ministry said that the decision has been issued "based on directives of higher authorities," claiming that relative authorities had repeatedly requested Telegram to shut down channels that were leaking documents of state institutions and personal data of Iraqi users, but had not received a response from the platform.

Digital Media Center (DMC), an Iraqi non-governmental organization monitoring and analyzing digital media, in late July criticized Telegram’s "poor" technical support saying that the ignoring of reports filed by Iraqi users has turned the app into a "hotspot for digital crime" in the country.

The DMC said that it had recorded dozens of channels on the platform that specialize in electronic extortion and have leaked personal data of thousands Iraqi users, while Telegram "continuously ignores requests to delete the violating channels."

Telegram is very popular among Iraqi users, and is the main platform for many of the country’s armed factions and militias.

Sabreen news, a channel affiliated with Iranian-backed factions of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), has heavily criticized the Iraqi government’s decision, labelling it as "silencing" and "fighting press freedom."

The channel, which has over 330 thousand subscribers on Telegram, has called for a campaign of "political and media opposition to all government activities" in response to the recent decision.

"The communication ministry reaffirms its respect for the people’s rights to freedom of expression and communication without violating the security of the state and its institutions, and expresses its confidence in the citizens' understanding of this measure.," read the statement from the Iraqi ministry.

Human right watchdogs frequently criticize Iraqi authorities for violating press freedom.

According to a Reporters Without Borders (RSF) report, Iraq ranks 172nd out of 180 countries in the 2022 World Press Freedom Index, falling even further from 163rd in 2021.
Shafaq News adds:
Iraq's former prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, on Sunday, expressed discontent with banning Telegram, a popular messaging application in Iraq, stressing that the government should direct its attention toward platforms that promote violence and hatred.

Iraq's telecoms ministry said it had blocked Telegram over national security concerns and in order to preserve the integrity of users' data, which it said the app had mishandled.

"Iraq, a democratic nation that upholds the freedom of media and expression, recognizes these as fundamental rights, albeit not absolute ones," the head of the State of Law bloc wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, "blocking social media sites for security reasons should take into consideration the distinction between sites supporting the state and government, versus those inciting hatred, violence, and infringements on others' privacy."

The app is widely used in Iraq for messaging but also as a source of news and for sharing content.

Some channels contain large amounts of personal data, including the names, addresses, and family ties of Iraqis.

The ministry said in a statement it had asked the app to close down "platforms that leak the data of the official state institutions and the personal data of citizens... but the company did not respond and did not interact with any of these requests."

"The Ministry of Communications affirms its respect for citizens' rights to freedom of expression and communication, without prejudice to the security of the state and its institutions," the statement said.
Related:
Telegram: 2023-08-05 Russian Perspective: Operation to denazify Ukraine: operational summary August 4 (updated)
Telegram: 2023-08-05 Actual information about the situation on the front line: August 4 (updated)
Telegram: 2023-08-04 Actual information about the situation on the front line: August 3 (updated)
Link


Iraq
Day 2: Death toll rises to 15 amid Clashes after Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr resigned
2022-08-30
Day 1 can be seen here and here.

[ENGLISH.ALARABIYA.NET] Iraqi Shia holy man Moqtada Tater al-Sadr
...hereditary Iraqi holy man and leader of a political movement in Iraq. He had his hereditary rival al-Khoei assassinated shortly after the holy rival's appearance out of exile in 2003. Formerly an Iranian catspaw, lately he's gagged over some of their more outlandish antics, then went back to catspawry...
 announced Monday that he would resign from Iraqi politics, prompting hundreds of his angry followers to storm the government palace and sparking festivities with security forces and between rival militias. At least 15 protesters were killed.

Protesters loyal to al-Sadr pulled down the cement barriers outside the government palace with ropes and breached the palace gates. Many rushed into the lavish salons and marbled halls of the palace, a key meeting place for Iraqi heads of state and foreign dignitaries.

Iraq’s military announced a nationwide curfew, and the caretaker premier suspended Cabinet sessions in response to the violence. Medical officials said dozens of protesters were maimed by gunfire and tear gas and physical altercations with riot police.

As night fell, a militia loyal to al-Sadr clashed with the Popular Mobilization Forces security inside the heavily fortified Green Zone, the seat of Iraq’s government, wounding at least one woman, according to two security officials. Several mortar rounds were heard, the officials said.

The crackle of machine gun fire persisted and echoed throughout central Baghdad.

The PMF is an umbrella group composed of state-sanctioned paramilitary groups, the most powerful of which are aligned with al-Sadr’s rivals in the Iran-backed political camp.

Security officials said mortars and rocket-propelled grenades were used in the festivities, a culmination of intractable political impasse between the rival camps.

Iraq’s government has been deadlocked since al-Sadr’s party won the largest share of seats in October parliamentary elections but not enough to secure a majority government. His refusal to negotiate with his Iran-backed Shia rivals and subsequent exit from the talks has catapulted the country into political uncertainty and volatility amid intensifying intra-Shia wrangling.

Iraq’s majority Moslem population is split into two sects, Shias and Sunnis. Under Saddam Hussein, the Shias were oppressed until the US-led invasion reversed the political order. Now the Shias are fighting among themselves, with the dispute centering around power and state resources but also influence over the Shia street.

To further his political interests, al-Sadr has wrapped his rhetoric with a nationalist and reform agenda that resonates powerfully among his broad grassroots base of supporters who hail from Iraq’s poorest sectors of society and have historically been shut out from the political system.

Many were first followers of his father, a revered figure in Shia Islam. They are calling for the dissolution of parliament and early elections without the participation of Iran-backed Shia groups, which they see as responsible for the status quo.

During Monday’s festivities, Saraya Salam, a militia aligned with al-Sadr gathered in the capital’s Tahrir Square to "protect" protesters, one of its commanders said.

An News Agency that Dare Not be Named photographer heard gunshots being fired in the capital and saw several protesters bleeding and being carried away. It was not immediately clear who fired the gunshots.

A senior medical official confirmed at least 10 protesters were killed by gunfire. The number was also confirmed by the Sadrist media office, which provided a list of 10 names.

Iraq’s caretaker premier said he would open an investigation into the shootings and said the use of live ammunition against protesters was forbidden.

Protests also broke out in the Shia-majority southern provinces, with al-Sadr’s supporters burning tires and blocking roads in the oil-rich province of Basra and hundreds demonstrating outside the governorate building in Missan.

Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
considers intra-Shia disharmony as a threat against its influence in Iraq and has repeatedly attempted to broker dialogue with al-Sadr.

In July, al-Sadr’s supporters broke into the parliament to deter his rivals in the Coordination Framework, an alliance of mostly Iran-aligned Shia parties, from forming a government. Hundreds have been staging a sit-in outside the building for over four weeks. His bloc has also resigned from parliament. The Framework is led by al-Sadr’s chief nemesis, former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

This is not the first time al-Sadr, who has called for early elections and the dissolution of parliament, has announced his retirement from politics — and many dismissed Monday’s move as another bluff to gain greater leverage against his rivals amid a worsening stalemate. The holy man has used the tactic on previous occasions when political developments did not go his way.

But many are concerned that it’s a risky gambit and are worried how it will impact Iraq’s fragile political climate. By stepping out of the political process, al-Sadr is giving his followers, most disenfranchised from the political system, the green light to act as they see fit.

Al-Sadr also commands a militia and maintains a great degree of influence within Iraq’s state institutions through the appointments of key civil servant positions. His Iran-backed rivals also have militia groups.

Iraq’s military swiftly announced a nationwide curfew beginning at 7 p.m. It called on the holy man’s supporters to withdraw immediately from the heavily fortified government zone and to practice self-restraint "to prevent festivities or the spilling of Iraqi blood," according to a statement.

"The security forces affirm their responsibility to protect government institutions, international missions, public and private properties," the statement said.

Iraq’s caretaker Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi also demanded that al-Sadr call on his followers to withdraw from government institutions.

The UN mission in Iraq said Monday’s protests were an "extremely dangerous escalation," and called on demonstrators to vacate all government buildings to allow the caretaker government to continue running the state.

It urged all to remain peaceful and "refrain from acts that could lead to an unstoppable chain of events."

"The very survival of the state is at stake," the statement said.

Al-Sadr announced his withdrawal from politics in a tweet, and ordered the closure of his party offices. Religious and cultural institutions will remain open, it said.

The true motivations behind al-Sadr’s announcement appeared to be a reaction to the retirement of Shia spiritual leader Ayatollah Kadhim al-Haeri, who counts many of al-Sadr’s supporters as followers.

In a surprise announcement Sunday, al-Haeri said he would be stepping down as a religious authority for health reasons and called on his followers to throw their allegiance behind Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
...the very aged actual dictator of Iran, successor to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini...
, rather than the Shia spiritual center in Iraq’s holy city of Najaf.

The move was a blow to al-Sadr, who despite harboring ambitions to be a religious authority lacks the scholarly credentials to be an ayatollah. al-Haeri, who resides in the Iranian holy city of Qom, once provided him with the legitimacy he lacked by designating al-Sadr as his representative in Iraq. He cut ties shortly after with the holy man, but continued to enjoy the support of his followers.

By calling on his followers to side with Khamenei, al-Haeri brought on a crisis of legitimacy for al-Sadr.

In his tweet, al-Sadr said al-Haeri’s stepping down "was not out of his own volition."
DShK=14.5mm antiaircraft machine gun, mounted on a "technical."

HQ's of most of the pro-Iran groups are burning all over Shia Iraq. Basra has had street battles too.

Related: U.S. spokesman denies the Green Zone embassy was evacuated.
"Who ya gonna believe? Your own lying eyes? Or the transparent honesty of the Biden Regime?"
Link


Iraq
Sadrist Movement calls for 'million' demonstration in Baghdad
2022-08-14
[Rudaw] The Sadrist Movement on Saturday called for Iraqi protestors to flock from different provinces to the capital of Baghdad in a massive show of protest titled the "million" people demonstration as political unrest between Iraq's rival forces reaches its peak.

"I count on you and I feel courageous not to be let down by you ... through a united (peaceful) (million) demonstration from all Iraq's provinces, regions, villages, and neighborhoods, and even from all its alleys and homes to go to the beloved capital, Baghdad, and to Tahrir Square, and then to your protesting brothers to support reform for the love of Iraq," read a tweet from Salih Mohammed al-Iraqi, a figure close to leader Moqtada Tater al-Sadr
...hereditary Iraqi holy man and leader of a political movement in Iraq. He had his hereditary rival, al-Khoei, assassinated only a few hours after the holy rival's appearance out of exile in 2003. Formerly an Iranian catspaw, lately he's gagged over some of their more outlandish antics, then went back to catspawry...
The political turmoil in Iraq has reached staggering depths, with constant protests held in Baghdad since late July by Sadr supporters and rivals of the pro-Iran
...The nation is noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence...
Coordination Framework.

The two sides maintain polarizing views regarding Iraq's future, with the former supporting the dissolution of parliament and holding snap elections while the latter refusing the dissolution of the legislature without a return to parliament sessions, which are currently obstructed due to Sadrist sit-ins in the capital's Green Zone in the vicinity of the parliament.

The Sadrist figure urged for a "million march carrying the flags of Iraq and the banners of reform and liberation ... that shake the thrones of the miserable" in Baghdad to send a message that "Iraq is with reform and there is no place for corruption and the corrupt," while warning that Iraq is on the cusp of "another dictator."

Meanwhile,
...back at the saw mill, Scarface Al had tied Little Nell to the log and was about to turn on the buzz saw...
 a representative of Sadr said on Saturday said that demonstrations will continue until reform is achieved and corruption is ousted from Iraq.

"We will continue until the demands are achieved and the faces of the corrupt are removed," Hazem al-Araji, the representative of the Sadrist Movement leader told Rudaw on Saturday night.

Supporters of Sadr have held a sit-in in the heavily fortified Green Zone since late July demanding the dissolution of parliament, constitutional reform, and early elections. Their demands are opposed by Coordination Framework loyalists, who have staged counter-protests in Baghdad against the demands of the Sadrist Movement.

The Sadrist figure's statement further warned that Iraq has become an "easy prey to corruption, injustice, militias, dependency, and the whims of corrupt parties," and called on all of Iraq's components to rise against such injustice.

Large rallies were held by supporters of Sadr and rivals Coordination Framework on Friday, and Sadrist protestors reiterated their demands of holding snap elections and the dissolution of the parliament. The Coordination Framework's supporters rejected their rivals' demands and instead called for reform.

On Wednesday, Sadr called on Iraq's Supreme Judicial Council to dissolve the parliament by the "end of next week" and task the president with setting early elections, saying that the judiciary retains the authority to dissolve the parliament without the need of a parliamentary session to be held.

Sadr's statement contradicts that of major rival and former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, who said on Monday that there will be no dissolution of parliament or early elections should the parliament not return to holding sessions and call to do so itself.

Iraq held early elections in October 2021, but has failed to form a government and has been grasped with a suffocating political deadlock, with the country currently experiencing a record nearly ten months without a permanent cabinet.
Link


Iraq
President Barzani congratulates al-Maliki for being elected as Secretary-General of the Islamic Dawa Party
2022-01-17
[SHAFAQ] The President of the Kurdistan region, Nechirvan Barzani, and Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, congratulated Nouri al-Maliki for being elected as Secretary-General of the Islamic Dawa Party.

"On this occasion, we stress the need for cooperation and common understanding between all parties and communities of Iraq, to overcome the problems and address the difficulties", President Barzani said.

For his part, PM Barzani said, "On the occasion of the success of the eighteenth conference of the Islamic Dawa Party, and choosing you as a Secretary-General of the party, I offer my sincere congratulations, wishing you and the brothers in the Dawa Party progress and success."
Link


Iraq
Al-Ameri will be in charge of the talks with the Sadrist movement, source says
2021-12-26
[SHAFAQ] A source in al-Fatah alliance revealed that Hadi al-Ameri, the head of the alliance and the Secretary-General of Badr Organization, will handle the part related to forming the government in the negotiations with the Sadrist bloc according to the division of labor between the Coordination Framework forces.

The source told Shafaq News Agency that the leaders of the Shiite Consortium divided the talks with the other blocs into three axes.

"The first axis will be handled by the head of the State of Law Coalition, Nouri al-Maliki, who will hold the talks with the Kurdish forces to reach a consensual formula that satisfies all the parties and the higher interest of the country."

"In the second axis, former Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi will handle the talks with all the Sunni forces to ensure their endorsement of the Framework's standpoint."

"The two leaders have made a headway in the negotiation rounds held over the past few days," he said.

"Al-Ameri will handle the talks with the leader of the Sadrist movement, Moqtada Tater al-Sadr
...hereditary Iraqi holy man and leader of a political movement in Iraq. He had his hereditary rival, al-Khoei, assassinated only a few hours after the holy rival's appearance out of exile in 2003. Formerly an Iranian catspaw, lately he's gagged over some of their more outlandish antics, then went back to catspawry...
, and the leading figures in the movement. A meeting will be held soon between both parties."

"The location of the meeting is yet to be decided, but it is more likely to take place in al-Hanana, the headquarters of al-Sadr in Najaf. The meeting will be dedicated to reaching an agreement over the details related to forming the government if the latter decided to rejoin the Shiite house and form a majority that forms the upcoming national and consensual government."

"The Coordination Framework is sparing no effort to bring the Sadrist movement into the Framework to form a unified Shiite Coalition that agrees upon a comprehensive national agenda."
Related:
Hadi al-Ameri: 2021-11-08 Resistance Factions: Sunday's attack is a strike to the majority's most important achievement
Hadi al-Ameri: 2021-09-18 Good Morning
Hadi al-Ameri: 2021-09-18 Leader of al-Fatah alliance, Hadi al-Ameri, lambasted the ''conspiracies'' plotting to ''dissolve'' or ''merge'' al-Hashed al-Shaabi into other security agencies
Link


Iraq
Huqooq denounces the election results, warns of ''dark and perilous'' paths
2021-12-02
[SHAFAQ] Huqooq movement, the political wing of Kata'ib Hezbollah (Iran's most powerful proxy in Iraq), voiced its rejection of the final election results announced by the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC), warning of plunging the country into "dark and perilous" paths."The election results are illegitimate given the size of manipulation and fraud the will of the voters was subject to in the 10/10 election," a statement of the movement said on Wednesday.
They didn't win, y'see.
Huqooq said that "IHEC and the Judicial Commission [for the elections] did not look into the evidence-supported appeals it presented "subjectively and impartially."

"We were prompted to withdraw our observers before the completion of the virtual recount they were running because they were prevented from direct observation."

"IHEC's insistence upon wasting the movement's electoral entitlements by keeping the results as they are will spawn a parliament that lacks legitimacy and does not reflect the Iraqis opinion."

The movement called on the Supreme Federal Court to carefully examine the evidence the movement had presented, warning that "what happened on October 10 is a serious deviation from the democratic course we wish to our country. It threatens to plunge the country into dark and perilous pathways."

Iraq's Shiite firebrand
...firebrands are noted more for audio volume and the quantity of spittle generated than for any actual logic in their arguments...
 holy man Moqtada Tater al-Sadr
...hereditary Iraqi holy man and leader of a political movement in Iraq. He had his hereditary rival, al-Khoei, assassinated only a few hours after the holy rival's appearance out of exile in 2003. Formerly an Iranian catspaw, lately he's gagged over some of their more outlandish antics, then went back to catspawry...
 was confirmed Tuesday as the biggest winner of last month's parliamentary election, that had sparked charges of voter fraud from pro-Iranian factions.

The announcement of the results had been put off for weeks amid tensions over allegations of fraud and violence, that culminated on November 7 in an liquidation attempt targeting Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, from which he emerged unharmed. The attack was not claimed by any group.

Al-Sadr's movement won nearly a fifth of seats, 73 out of the assembly's total 329, IHEC said, after a lengthy manual recount of hundreds of ballot boxes.

Trailing behind Sadr's bloc in the Shiite camp with 17 seats was al-Fatah (Conquest) Alliance, the political arm of the pro-Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites....
al-Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces-PMF) former paramilitary force, which is now integrated into Iraq's state security apparatus.

PMF leaders had rejected the preliminary result -- which was sharply down from their 48 seats in the outgoing assembly, as a "scam", and their supporters have held street protests chanting "No to fraud".

Their activists have staged sit-in protests outside Baghdad's ultra-secure Green Zone district, where the government, the assembly and many foreign embassies are located.

Despite the significant loss of seats, the Hashed remains a powerful force in the Iraqi political scene, backed by Iran and with a strength of 160,000 fighters.

It can also count on a key ally that made a surprise comeback in the polls, former premier Nouri al-Maliki's pro-Iran State of Law Alliance clinched 33 seats in the legislature.

Analysts have warned that, in a country still recovering from decades of war and chaos, and where most parties have armed wings, political disputes could spark a dangerous escalation.

The final results must now be sent to the federal court for ratification.

The parliament will then hold its inaugural session and elect a president, who will in turn appoint a prime minister to be approved by the legislature.

In multi-confessional and multi-ethnic Iraq, the formation of governments has involved complex negotiations ever since a US-led invasion toppled dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003.

Posts and ministries have typically been handed out according to compromises reached by the main blocs in backroom talks, rather than to reflect the numbers of seats parties have won.

Al-Sadr, a former leader of an anti-US militia who has often surprised observers with his political manoeuvres, has called for a "majority" government with other leading blocs, possibly excluding powerful Shiite actors like al-Fatah.

Analysts said he could strike deals with Sunni and Kurdish groups, such as those of outgoing parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halboosi's bloc, with 37 seats, and/or the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), with 31.



Link


Iraq
Iraq elections: As Sadr seeks full control, Maliki woos his bruised opponents
2021-11-03
[SHAFAQ] Iraq’s October elections have sharply redrawn the Shia forces’ map of influence, and heated up the rivalry between Moqtada Tater al-Sadr
...hereditary Iraqi holy man and leader of a political movement in Iraq. He had his hereditary rival, al-Khoei, assassinated only a few hours after the holy rival's appearance out of exile in 2003. Formerly an Iranian catspaw, lately he's gagged over some of their more outlandish antics, then went back to catspawry...
, the polls’ clear winner, and Nouri al-Maliki, the former prime minister.Sadr, a Shia holy man with millions of followers and a large gang, emerged from the elections head and shoulders above his rivals. Sadr’s Sairoon Alliance won 74 seats, with Maliki’s State of Law list coming in second with 35.

The holy man’s opponents in the Iran-backed armed factions cobbled together around only 20 seats overall. And they have not taken it well.
Link


Iraq
Sadr’s party is the biggest winner in Iraq's election, increasing the number of seats he holds in parliament
2021-10-12
[PUBLISH.TWITTER]

Former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki looked set to have the next largest win among Shi’ite parties, the initial results showed.

For all the latest headlines follow our Google News channel online or via the app.

Iraq’s Shia groups have dominated governments and government formation since the US-led invasion of 2003 that toppled Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein and catapulted the Shi’ite majority and the Kurds to power.

Sunday’s election was held several months early, in response to mass protests in 2019 that toppled a government and showed widespread anger against politicians whom many Iraqis say have enriched themselves at the expense of the country.

But a record low turnout suggested that an election billed as an opportunity to wrest control from the ruling elite would do little to dislodge sectarian religious parties in power since 2003.

A count based on initial results from several Iraqi provinces plus the capital Baghdad, verified by local government officials, suggested Sadr had won more than 70 seats, which if confirmed could give him considerable influence in forming a government.

A spokesperson for Sadr’s office said the number was 73 seats. Local news outlets published the same figure.

An official at Iraq’s electoral commission said Sadr had come first but did not immediately confirm how many seats his party had won.

The initial results also showed that pro-reform candidates who emerged from the 2019 protests had gained several seats in the 329-member parliament.

Iran-backed parties with links to militia groups accused of killing some of the nearly 600 people who died in the protests took a blow, winning less seats than in the last election in 2018, according to the initial results and local officials.

Sadr has increased his power over the Iraqi state since coming first in the 2018 election where his coalition won 54 seats.

The unpredictable populist holy man has been a dominant figure and often kingmaker in Iraqi politics since the US invasion.

He opposes all foreign interference in Iraq, whether by the US, against which he fought an insurgency after 2003, or by neighboring Iran, which he has criticized for its close involvement in Iraqi politics.

Sadr, however, is regularly in Iran, according to officials close to him, and has called for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, where Washington maintains a force of around 2,500 in a continuing fight against Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're really very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear western pols talk they're not really Moslems....
.

New law, same big parties

Elections in Iraq since 2003 have been followed by protracted negotiations that can last months and serve to distribute government posts among the dominant parties.

The result on Monday is not expected to dramatically alter the balance of power in Iraq or in the wider region.

Sunday’s vote was held under a new law billed by Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi as a way to loosen the grip of established political parties and pave the way for independent, pro-reform candidates. Voting districts were made smaller, and the practice of awarding seats to lists of candidates sponsored by parties was abandoned.

But many Iraqis did not believe the system could be changed and chose not to vote.

The official turnout figure of just 41 percent suggested the vote had failed to capture the imagination of the public, especially younger Iraqis who demonstrated in huge crowds two years ago.
Link


Iraq
Shiite Forces in Iraq Hold Sway over Naming of Next Prime Minister
2021-09-05
[ENGLISH.AAWSAT] Influential holy man Moqtada Tater al-Sadr
...hereditary Iraqi holy man and leader of a political movement in Iraq. He had his hereditary rival, al-Khoei, assassinated only a few hours after the holy rival's appearance out of exile in 2003. Formerly an Iranian catspaw, lately he's gagged over some of their more outlandish antics, then went back to catspawry...
’s announcement that he was reneging on his decision to sit out the October elections has reshuffled the political cards in Iraq.

Some sides have benefited from his return, while other have been harmed by it. Those who had initially rejoiced at Sadr’s absence from the October 10 elections, now find themselves at a loss in how to deal with his return.

Ultimately, the parties that had declared their withdrawal from the race on the heels of Sadr’s withdrawal have emerged as the greatest losers. They are the Iraqi National Accord, of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, and the Iraqi Communist Party.

With Sadr’s return, the Iraqi political scene has become embroiled in a cutthroat battle ahead of the polls with all rivals vying for the greatest seats in parliament. Regardless of who emerges on top, all sides will be eying the ultimate prize: naming the prime minister, who is always a Shiite, the parliament speaker, who is always a Sunni, and president, who is always Kurdish.

Sources told Asharq al-Awsat that behind-the-scenes efforts are focusing on the electoral mechanisms and means to limit electoral fraud. They are also getting ahead of themselves by focusing on the three presidencies.

The Shiite forces, for example, in spite of their deep differences, especially with Sadr’s return to the race, are preoccupied with setting the characteristics of the next premier. A seven-part committee is tasked with the mission.

The Shiites are seeking to agree on the name of the prime minister even before the elections are held.

With Sadr’s return, his supporters will want him to hold sway over naming the PM that will ultimately give the holy man major power over the political scene in the country.

Sadr’s return has taken all discussions on the name of the three presidents, especially the premier, back to square one. The holy man wants the PM to be a loyalist of his Sadrist movement.

Question remarks remain over current Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who had previously said that he was not seeking a second term. This may have changed with the return of Sadr, who backs Kadhimi. The premier also enjoys the support of Masoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party.

Other potential candidates include national security advisor and former interior minister Qassem Araji and former PM-designates Adnan al-Zurfi and Mohammed Shaya al-Sudani. Members of the State of Law coalition have suggested the nomination of its leader, former PM Nouri al-Maliki.

Heated discussions are also ongoing among Sunni and Kurdish circles over the name of the president and parliament speaker. Their choice will have to pass the approval of the Shiite parties. The president is nominated by the two main Kurdish parties, but he needs to be approved by the main Shiite parties. The same goes to the parliament speaker.

As it stands, deep divisions are plaguing the Kurdish and Sunni parties. If the camps remain divided even after the elections, the Shiites will emerge as the most powerful players on the political scene.
Related:
Moqtada al-Sadr: 2021-08-28 Sadr announces he will contest election: state media
Moqtada al-Sadr: 2021-07-26 Sadrists complicate Iraq's political scene
Moqtada al-Sadr: 2021-07-17 Sadr dissolves own political party following withdrawal from elections
Link


Iraq
Armed Factions Demand Dismissal of Prominent Officer Backed by Iraq PM
2021-06-14
[ENGLISH.AAWSAT] The Kataib Hezbollah armed faction in Iraq warned the Iraqi government against repeating the arrest of prominent commanders of the pro-Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).

It also called on the government to arrest whom it described as "aggressors" in wake of the detention and eventual release of prominent PMF commander Qassim Muslih.

Muslih was arrested in late May over his suspected involvement in the killing of prominent anti-government activist Ihab al-Wazni. He was released last week after much political pressure and escalation by the PMF. Head of Iran’s Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani had also visited Baghdad last week to ease the tensions.

A front man for Kataib Hezbollah, known as Abou Ali al-Askari, tweeted that Muslih’s arrest in the first place was a "spiteful" move by the government.

He warned "the traitor" — a reference to Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi — against repeating such a move "otherwise we will not return to our positions before the aggressors are behind bars."

Muslih was released after a settlement was reached between the factions and government in return to an end to the escalation. Political sources said he was freed after massive political pressure was exerted.

Notably, Askari seemed to snub Iran, when he warned the government that "friends, neither east nor west," will come to its aid should it repeat the arrest.

Informed sources said that the Kataib Hezbollah and other factions are gunning for General Ahmed Abou Ragheef, the officer who ordered Muslih’s arrest.

The armed factions have been wary of Abou Ragheef ever since Kadhimi tasked him in August 2020 with handling the "extraordinary crimes" committee that is in charge of investigating corruption cases.

Abou Ragheef had served as interior minister in 2008. He was relieved of his post by then PM Nouri al-Maliki after mounting suspicions that he was planning a military coup against the government. He was appointed as director of intelligence affairs in former PM Haidar al-Abadi’s government. Kadhimi then promoted him to become one of his most senior officers.

Months ago, Abou Ragheef launched a wave of arrests against corrupt politicians and government figures. Despite coming under fierce criticism from his opponents, Kadhimi continued to place his trust in Abou Ragheef.

The officer’s efforts have so far uncovered a vast network of suspicious alliances between Iraqi leaders, armed factions and organized crimes gangs.

The situation eventually came to a head with Muslih’s arrest.

Some armed factions want to eliminate Abou Ragheef "permanently" because of their growing conviction that he will not stop until he reaches the top Shiite positions of power.

A "significant" source from the PMF revealed that a new order of arrests will be made soon.

A PMF commander in Najaf city told Asharq al-Awsat that factions such as Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq want to exploit the Muslih crisis to punish Abou Ragheef.

"These factions are not exactly pleased with the Iranian maneuvers and settlements in the Iraqi file. They want to make actual moves against Kadhimi," he revealed, adding however, that such a position is not shared by all Shiite groups.
Related:
Kataib Hezbollah: 2021-03-17 Iraqi National Intelligence Service Threatens to Sue 'Asaib Ahl al-Haq' Leader
Kataib Hezbollah: 2021-03-10 FDD ⁦@adesnik⁩’s 2018 study of ten of the leading groups
Kataib Hezbollah: 2021-03-09 January 23rd drone attack launched on Saudi capital from Iraq, likely by Kataib Hezbollah
Link



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