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2024-04-04 Israel-Palestine-Jordan
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Israel beefs up air defenses, calls up troops as Iran payback for Syria strike looms
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[IsraelTimes] Speculation suggests Iran could attack Israel from its own territory rather than through proxies, sparking wider hostilities; Gallant says IDF prepared for every scenario
The IDF said on Wednesday that it bolstered its air defense array and had called up reservists, as the country girded for a potential Iranian response to the strike in Syria earlier this week, in which several high-ranking Iranian military officials were killed.
Both Iran
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...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
and its proxy Hezbollah have vowed that Israel will not go unpunished for the Monday attack on a consular building next to Iran’s embassy in Damascus, which killed Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ most bigwig in Syria, along with his deputy, five other IRGC officers, and at least one member of the Hezbollah terror group.
A Channel 12 news report reflecting Israeli speculation on a possible reprisal pointed to the possibility that Iran could respond by directly launching missiles from its own territory rather than via any of its proxy groups, which includes militias in Leb
 ...an Iranian satrapy currently ruled by Hassan Nasrallah situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel. Formerly inhabited by hardy Phoenecian traders, its official language is now Arabic, with the usual unpleasant side effects. The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else? It is the home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade. The Lebs have the curious habit of periodically murdering their heads of state or prime ministers...
, Iraq and Yemen
...an area of the Arabian Peninsula sometimes mistaken for a country. It is populated by more antagonistic tribes and factions than you can keep track of...
.
While Israel could suffice with letting the round of hostilities fizzle out, in the event that Iran responds via a proxy, such as a Hezbollah rocket barrage, an attack from Iranian territory would likely push the Israeli Defense Forces to launch a significant reprisal, risking sending tensions snowballing further.
"I won’t be surprised if Iran fires directly at Israel," former Military Intelligence head Amos Yadlin told the network, explaining that a January missile strike carried out by Iran on neighboring Pakistain set a precedent for such action.
Hebrew-language media reports said the decision to beef up air defenses and call up troops came following a threat assessment.
Several rockets have been fired at Israel from Lebanon by Hezbollah since Monday’s attack, though there has been no indication that they went beyond daily cross-border fire that have raised tensions on Israel’s northern frontier since October 8.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
...the very aged actual dictator of Iran, successor to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini...
has vowed Dire Revenge for the Monday strike, and posters parroting his words have gone up around Tehran, in a sign of public pressure for an Iranian response.
"The defeat of the Zionist regime in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with an iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response ...
will continue and this regime will be close to decline and dissolution," Khamenei said in a speech to the country’s officials in Tehran Wednesday.
"Desperate efforts like the one they committed in Syria will not save them from defeat. Of course, they will also be slapped for that action," he added.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said earlier on Wednesday that Israel is "increasing preparedness" in the face of threats from across the Middle East.
Speaking at a home-front readiness drill in Haifa, Gallant said that the country’s defense establishment is "expanding our operations against Hezbollah, against other bodies that threaten us," and reiterated that Israel "strikes our enemies all over the Middle East."
"We need to be prepared and ready for every scenario and every threat," against near enemies and distant enemies," Gallant said, vowing that "we will know how to protect the citizens of Israel and we will know how to attack our enemies."
Addressing the daily attacks on the northern border by the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, Gallant said that one of the main issues Israel is facing is how it will let some 80,000 displaced Israelis return to their homes in northern Israel.
"We prefer... an agreement that will result in the removal of the threat, but we have to prepare for the possibility of [using] force in Lebanon that can also take into account the scenario we are describing here, which is a scenario of war, and we need to be prepared for this issue and understand that it can happen," Gallant said.
The drill evaluated the coordination between local authorities, government ministries, and rescue services in a war scenario, "in light of the increasing need to return the residents of the north to their homes," the Defense Ministry said.
Since October 8, Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis, with the group saying it is doing so to support Gaza, amid the war there.
So far, the skirmishes on the border have resulted in eight civilian deaths on the Israeli side, as well as the deaths of 10 IDF soldiers and reservists. There have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries. Hezbollah has named 267 members who have been killed by Israel during the ongoing skirmishes, mostly in Lebanon but some also in Syria.
In Lebanon, another 50 operatives from other terror groups, a Lebanese soldier, and at least 60 civilians, three of whom were journalists, have been killed.
The alleged Israeli attack on Damascus came after Israel indicated it was stepping up action against Hezbollah, hitting sites deeper inside Lebanon, in a bid to pressure the group into stopping the daily rocket fire.
It also occured hours after an Iran-backed militia launched a drone at Eilat, hitting a naval base, in one of the more serious attacks on Israel since war erupted on October 7.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, US officials said they were watching closely to see if, as in the past, Iran-backed proxies would attack US troops based in Iraq and Syria after Monday’s Israeli strike, but had no picked up any intelligence suggesting they would do so.
Such Iranian attacks ceased in February after Washington retaliated for the killing of three US troops in Jordan with dozens of air strikes on targets in Syria and Iraq linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and the militias it backs.
One source who tracks the issue carefully, and who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Iran faced the conundrum of wanting to respond to deter further such Israeli strikes while avoiding an all-out war.
"They have faced this real dilemma that if they respond they could be courting a confrontation which they clearly don’t want," he said. "They are trying to modulate their actions in a way that shows that they are responsive but not escalatory."
"If they don’t respond in this case, it really would be a signal that their deterrence is a paper tiger," he added, saying Iran might attack Israel proper, Israeli embassies or Jewish facilities abroad.
The US official said given the significance of the Israeli strike, Iran may be forced to respond by attacking Israeli interests, rather than going after US troops.
Elliott Abrams, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations US think tank, also said he believed Iran did not want an all-out war with Israel, but could target Israeli interests.
"I think Iran does not want a big Israel-Hezbollah war right now, so any response will not come in the form of a big Hezbollah action," Abrams said, referring to the Lebanese group seen as Tehran’s most powerful military proxy.
"They have many other ways to respond... for example by trying to blow up an Israeli embassy," he added.
Iran could also respond by accelerating its nuclear program, which Tehran has ramped up since then-US president Donald Trump
...Perhaps no man has ever had as much fun being president of the US...
in 2018 abandoned the 2015 Iran nuclear deal designed to constrain it in return for economic benefits.
But the two most dramatic steps — increasing the purity of its enriched uranium to 90 percent, which is considered bomb grade, or reviving work to design an actual weapon — could backfire and invite Israeli or US strikes.
"Either one of those would be viewed by Israel and by the US as a decision to acquire a bomb. So... they are really taking a big risk. Are they ready to do it? I would not think so," said the source, who tracks the issue closely. 
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