2022-07-22 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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White House says Russia planning to annex large swaths of Ukraine
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by Dave Lawler
[Axios] The U.S. has intelligence indicating the Kremlin is "reviewing detailed plans" to annex multiple Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said Tuesday.
Why it matters: The four regions — Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk — are contiguous and together would connect Russia with the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow occupied and annexed in 2014.
Annexing them would mean claiming large swaths of Ukraine's territory and fundamentally shifting the outlook for any peaceful resolution to the war.
The big picture: Ukrainian officials have been warning for months that Russia's shadow government in Kherson was issuing Russian passports, mandating the use of the Russian ruble, and potentially planning a "referendum" on joining Russia. The plan Kirby laid out, which echoes U.S. intelligence warnings made in May, would be even more drastic.
Russia has previously denied any intention to annex additional parts of Ukraine. The Kremlin decided against annexing Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014, opting instead to arm and support separatist "republics" there.
Russia took control of most of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine in the early days of the war. In its current offensive in eastern Ukraine, Russia has cemented its control of Luhansk and is now focusing on Donetsk.
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