Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Artemy Sharapov
[REGNUM] More than two weeks have passed since Hamas militants began invading Israel, but the Israeli military is still delaying the date of the retaliation strike.
Top officials of the Israeli government, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , almost immediately after the events of October 7 promised the speedy elimination of all militants involved in the invasion and announced a large-scale military operation in the Gaza Strip with the aim of finally eliminating Hamas. However, so far the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have limited themselves to calling up 300 thousand reservists and launching a large-scale campaign to destroy the infrastructure of militants in the sector.
The IDF command explains: the airstrikes should prepare the start of a ground operation, depriving Palestinian groups of the ability to conduct combat operations in dense urban areas.
“We attack very, very hard, we kill senior commanders, we kill rank-and-file fighters, we destroy infrastructure and we act with great determination. This is the path of a decisive offensive aimed at destroying Hamas, wherever it is. Preparations for the ground maneuver in the south have been carried out well,” assured the Chief of the General Staff of the Israeli Army, Lieutenant General Herzi Ha-Levi at a meeting with officers.
At the same time, as mentioned above, the Israeli authorities do not give specific dates for the operation, which is being postponed every day.
Times of Israel notes: the IDF command has completed all the necessary preparations and insists on launching the offensive as soon as possible, but Netanyahu’s office may postpone the operation indefinitely.
Opportunities are running out
An opinion has been expressed: the position of the authorities is influenced by the situation with foreign hostages in Gaza.
The day before, Hamas released two hostages as a gesture of goodwill. According to some media reports, the group, through the mediation of the Egyptian authorities, is negotiating the release of all non-Israelis or all civilian hostages.
In response, the group expects the opening of the Rafah checkpoint on the border of the Gaza Strip with Egypt and the start of humanitarian aid deliveries.
In addition, the Israeli government fears that the ground operation in Gaza could drag on for several months and lead to heavy losses, both military and image. This version appears in the publication of Vice . The assumption is reasonable, because there are still tens of thousands of Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other groups in Gaza who are preparing for urban battles.
The Israeli authorities are also concerned about the possible entry into the conflict of the Lebanese Hezbollah group and Palestinian factions operating in the West Bank (which are under the control of the official authorities of the Palestinian Authority, led by the leader of the Fatah group, Mahmoud Abbas).
In this situation, Israel is “at the limit of its capabilities” and that is why the invasion of Gaza is being postponed, Western experts believe.
However, according to military expert Yuri Lyamin, the mobilization capabilities of the IDF are far from exhausted.
After the mobilization of reservists, the strength of the Israeli army approached 550–600 thousand people. Quantitatively, the IDF is superior to all Palestinian groups combined, not to mention the total superiority in artillery, armored vehicles and aviation, which the Palestinians simply do not have.
But the situation could be changed by the entry of other regional players into the conflict.
Hezbollah goes beyond standard escalation
“The problem for Israel could be the escalation of the current limited conflict with the Lebanese Hezbollah to a full-scale war,” Lyamin points out.
Conducting a simultaneous offensive in the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon may prove difficult for Israel. Especially considering that Shiite volunteers from Iraq, Syria and other countries can come to Hezbollah’s aid, the expert notes.
Earlier, Hezbollah admitted the death of forty members of the group in border clashes with the Israelis. Hezbollah artillery and drones attack IDF positions, destroying observation posts and armored vehicles. However, so far the conflict does not go beyond the “standard” escalation between Lebanon and Israel.
If the IDF nevertheless decides to carry out an operation in Gaza, Hezbollah could mobilize tens or even hundreds of thousands of its supporters. Many of them have real combat experience gained during the war in Syria, where the group supported the government of President Bashar al-Assad .
Hypothetically, Israel could focus on the situation in Gaza, moving to a tight defense on its northern borders. That is, not to take any action “on the ground”, but to concentrate on delivering retaliatory strikes.
However, in this case, the exchange of fire could reach a completely different level.
“A prolonged exchange of missile and air strikes is fraught with serious destruction not only for Lebanon, but also for Israel. Hezbollah’s strike potential is simply incomparably higher than anything the Palestinians had,” notes Yuri Lyamin.
The armor is strong, but it’s difficult without shells
A war “on two fronts” is obviously fraught with exhaustion of internal resources for Israel. The IDF can still support a medium-intensity conflict using its own resources, but if the operation drags on, Israel will have to seek help.
Jerusalem has already asked the United States to provide tens of thousands of 155-mm artillery shells, which were previously seized from IDF mobilization warehouses in favor of Ukraine. Washington granted Israel's request, but this delivery may be only the first of many to follow.
The Israeli defense industry is closely connected with the American military-industrial complex and will not be able to independently meet the needs of an army waging a full-scale war, points out military expert Alexander Mikhailovsky .
“The escalation of the conflict will primarily lead to the depletion of reserves of air defense missiles and aircraft ammunition. Then it will be the turn of artillery shells and 120-mm tank shells. And then supplies of more technologically advanced things will be required, such as guidance systems, components for drones, and so on ad infinitum ,” the expert listed.
Israel is still considering the possibility of a ground operation in Gaza, Mikhailovsky believes. This is evidenced, in particular, by the “armoring” of Merkava tanks, which were deployed to the border with the Gaza Strip. The vehicles received a so-called visor - a metal protective structure designed to protect against drones. Israeli Puma armored personnel carriers and other armored vehicles received similar protection systems.
However, the military's readiness does not mean that the Israeli government will be as decisive.
The US is afraid of getting drawn into the conflict
The Israeli authorities may be influenced by the US position. The White House is concerned that the goals set by the Israeli army are unattainable and the IDF does not have a working plan for the operation. This version was spread by the New York Times, citing sources in the Joe Biden administration.
Other circumstances also influence the mood of the White House. On Wednesday, October 18, the so-called “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” began striking US Army bases in the Middle East. On the night of October 23-24, the Syrian Al-Omar field, where the Americans are illegally extracting oil, came under attack.
On Saturday, October 21, US Navy warships operating in the Red Sea repelled a missile launch from Yemen by the Ansarallah group, whose members are known as the Houthis. The head of the Houthi government, Abdul Aziz bin Saleh Habtoor , confirmed that the missiles were fired into Israel for demonstration purposes. In the future, the Houthis may begin to launch regular attacks on Israeli territory.
US Navy ships and American military bases in Saudi Arabia and the UAE may also come under attack. The Houthis’ statement should not be viewed as bravado: the group previously demonstrated the Quds (Arabic name for Jerusalem) missiles in its arsenal with a range of up to 2,000 km. The Houthis are also armed with Wa'id-2 kamikaze drones (a version of the Iranian Shahed 136 drones), which have a maximum range of up to 2,500 km.
In the current circumstances, the United States is actually being drawn into a conflict that does not promise a quick victory (or perhaps even victory as such).
“We should not forget that the election cycle is beginning in the United States. Any mistake by Biden, the arrival of a ballistic missile at a US Army base, will be used by the Republicans for their own purposes. Therefore, the United States will try to help Israel find a non-military way out of the situation while saving face,” notes Mikhailovsky.
On the other hand, a possible delay in starting the operation in Gaza could lead to the start of proceedings in Israel itself. The local press is increasingly criticizing the country's civilian and military leadership for allowing militants to break out of Gaza. Therefore, the Israeli authorities may ultimately decide on a military operation.
Experts agree that Israel will ultimately be able to resolve the Hamas situation on its own. However, the expansion of the conflict and possible image losses may offset any local military successes.
Maneuvering between Scylla and Charybdis, the Israeli authorities are trying to find the optimal solution that would resolve the Gaza issue while minimizing possible consequences. But so far no such solution is in sight.
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