Recent Appearances...

Warning: Undefined array key "rbname" in /data/rantburg.com/www/pgrecentorg.php on line 14
Hello !
Recent Appearances...

Afghanistan

What is behind the rumors about the war between Iran and Afghanistan

2023-05-30

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

by Kirill Semenov
The skirmishes that took place on the border of Iran and Afghanistan on May 27-28 between Iranian border guards and the Afghan Taliban, which currently represent the country's authorities, were rushed by many media and experts to be written almost as an act of terrorist aggression by the Taliban movement against neighboring Iran. It was noted that this is a confirmation of the terrorist nature of the Taliban and their inability to engage in peaceful dialogue.

As evidence of this position, statements were cited about the Taliban declaring war on Iran by one of the alleged "leaders of the Taliban," who was called Abdulhamid Khorasani.

However, firstly, these words of Khorasani were taken out of context, and his statement was only about the possible actions of the Taliban in response to the corresponding steps of Iran. And secondly, this person is currently, in fact, an ordinary blogger who has never been associated with the leadership of the movement. His last position was the chief of police in one of the Afghan districts, from which he was fired.

Waters of stumbling
At the same time, a closer look at the essence of the current escalation makes it clear that the Iranian-Afghan aggravation has nothing to do with any terrorist plans or other aggressive aspirations of the Taliban.

Although the true causes of the escalation, as well as their culprit, have not yet been established, it is possible that the trigger for the current escalation was the water issue.

Back in 1973, Iran and Afghanistan agreed to share water from the Helmand River. Kabul pledged to supply Iran with an average of 820 million cubic meters of water per year. The Helmand River flows through most of Afghanistan and flows into Lake Khamun on the border with Iran. An irrigation dam on the river was built between 1951 and 1953 by the American firm Morrison-Knudsen.

In the 2010s, the Afghan authorities, with US help, rebuilt the dams on the river, which Tehran believes could limit the flow of water to Iran.

The Taliban authorities of Afghanistan have not been able to provide the necessary spillway in the interests of Iran, referring to the silting of the bottom of the reservoir and the riverbed. Kabul officials justify that the reservoir is more filled with silt than water, making it difficult to meet Iranian needs. These technical difficulties arose immediately after the Taliban came to power in the country in 2021.

The Taliban suggested that Iran resort to the dispute resolution mechanism provided for in the 1973 treaty through arbitration. At the same time, it was noted that the development of relations with Iran is among the priorities of the Taliban's policy.

Tehran, in turn, took a fairly tough stance on this issue, hastening to place all responsibility for the water crisis on the movement.

"The Taliban should be held accountable for their refusal to grant water rights to Iran if it is proven that there is enough water in the dams built on the Helmand River," Iran's special representative for Afghanistan, Hassan Kazemi Qomi , said on May 20.

Earlier, on May 18, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi addressed the Afghan authorities on the same issue: "If our experts confirm [that there is no water in the reservoir] , then there are no questions. But if there is water there, then you are obliged to ensure the rights of the inhabitants of Sistan and Balochistan. <…> Take my words seriously so that you don’t regret it later."

The Taliban refused to allow Iranian experts to the dam, considering this requirement a violation of sovereignty. At the same time, Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Mottaki responded to Raisi's statement: “ We ask the Iranian government not to politicize the vital issue related to water. It is better to solve such problems through personal negotiations, and not to make noise in the press .”

Such rhetoric was followed by border incidents, for which they blamed each other.

Their emergence was also facilitated by the lack of delimitation and demarcation of the border. Border issues between the two countries have become the causes of clashes before, and in the current tense situation in connection with the water problem, they could become an additional trigger for escalation along with harsh rhetoric from both states.

The official representative of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in the Taliban government, Abdul-Nafi Takor, accused Iran of shelling the border area of Afghanistan. According to him, both sides lost two people killed.

"Currently, the situation is under control, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan does not approve of clashes with neighbors," he said.

At the same time, according to the Iranian Tasnim agency, on May 27, the Taliban fired at the Iranian border post "Sasoli". As a result, one border guard was killed, two more were injured. The commander of the Iranian ground forces, Kiyumars Heydari, visited the border region on May 28 and said that now " complete security has been established " there.

What is behind the rumors about the war between Iran and Afghanistan
Ultimately, on May 28, the parties agreed to resolve all border incidents and declared the need to continue the policy of good neighborliness.

Historical context
Relations between Tehran and Kabul after the victory of the "Islamic revolution" in Iran were complex and ambiguous. As power shifted in Afghanistan, Iran changed its attitude towards local governments from friendly to hostile and vice versa.

The Taliban is no exception in this sense. Moreover, the dynamics of Iranian-American contacts and contradictions also left their mark on relations with him.

During the Soviet military campaign in Afghanistan, which began in the same 1979 as the revolution in Iran, Washington and Tehran surprisingly turn out to be virtually allies in the Afghan issue, supporting the anti-Soviet resistance.

The United States, through Pakistan, helped the Sunni "Peshawar Seven" (the coordinating body of part of the Afghan Mujahideen groups). At the same time, Iran provided assistance to both the "Shiite G8", which united the Shiite armed factions with headquarters in Iranian Mashhad, and the Sunni field commander Ismail Khan - "The Lion of Herat", the commander of the "Western United Group" of the Afghan Mujahideen.

The Taliban movement after coming to power in Afghanistan turns into one of the main opponents of Iran, despite Sudan's attempts to reconcile them with each other. In 1998, Iran and the Taliban were on the brink of war. But the movement itself was soon temporarily neutralized by the hands of the United States.

According to Ryan Crocker , the former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq, Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani was involved in important U.S.-Iranian negotiations after the September 11 attacks, when the parties were looking for ways to defeat the Taliban.

In 2001, after the US began the so-called. global war on terror, Iran secretly cooperated with the administration of George W. Bush in the elimination of the Taliban*. In the same year, Tehran and Washington, under the auspices of the UN, worked together to sign the Bonn Agreement to accelerate the process of state building in post-Taliban Afghanistan and begin the repatriation of Afghan refugees from Iran.

The American intervention in Afghanistan temporarily strengthened Iran's position in that country. Tehran at a certain point was able to rely not only on fellow believers - the Shiites-Hazaras and its longtime partner in the fight against the Taliban Gulbuddin Hekmatyar , but also on the Taliban itself, which was forced to get closer to Iran.

In particular, the head of the Taliban movement, Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour, was killed by the Americans in May 2016, when he was returning from Iran. There, he held relevant negotiations with the Iranian side, which was confirmed by the Taliban spokesman.

However, it should be borne in mind that Tehran has always considered Afghanistan as a continuation of "Greater Iran". There are not only local Tajiks close to the Persians in culture and language, the second ethnic group of Afghans after the Pashtuns, but also fellow Iranians Shiites-Hazaras.

Iran even had plans to create its own puppet formations in Afghanistan. In particular, after 1992, Tehran worked out the possibility of creating under its leadership in the north of Afghanistan two quasi-states - the Tajik-Khazarean and Herat Islamic republics.

The Iranian leadership believed that these republics and Tajikistan (where a civil war was then going on and politicians loyal to Iran could come to power) would allow the formation of an "eastern Iranian arc" - a military-political alliance of Dushanbe, Afghan Hazaras and Tajiks under the leadership of Tehran.

Therefore, the aspect of Iran's "great-power" ambitions towards Afghanistan and attempts to put pressure on the Taliban leadership from these positions should not be discounted at the present time either.

Escalation not needed by Russia
On the whole, the aggravation of the situation around Afghanistan seems to be a very risky trend for Russia's interests.

Why the Islamic world refrains from sanctions against Russia
The problem is that it is not the Taliban who can open a “second front” against Russia, but Moscow may be drawn into an escalation that it does not need, following the provoked aggravation of the situation on the borders of Afghanistan and Russian partners in the CSTO.

The risks increase given that public opinion and the media are already set in such a way that the Taliban will be blamed for any aggravation around Afghanistan. Although some of our partners would probably like to resolve their own contradictions with them by Russian hands.

Link

Afghanistan

New Yorker Magazine Details Failed Afghan Peace Talks

2021-12-12

It’s the New Yorker, so I can’t judge how true versus truthy their claims might be.

[ToloNews] The New Yorker Magazine in a lengthy report with newly available source material shed light on the Afghan grinding of the peace processor--from its start in 2010 to the foreign forces’ withdrawal in August of this year. Titled, "The Secret History of the US Diplomatic Failure in Afghanistan," the report is the first of two parts and covers the failure of the grinding of the peace processor and the fall of Kabul, and is written by Steve Coll and Adam Entous.

According to the New Yorker report, the first attempts for making peace between the Taliban
...Arabic for students...
and Afghan government started in November 2010. However,
there's no worse danger than telling a mother her baby is ugly...
the attempts did not materialize because the Taliban refused to work with the then-president Hamid Maybe I'll join the Taliban Karzai
...A product, and probably the sole product, of the Southern Alliance...
government, seeing him as "an illegitimate puppet."

On the other hand, Karzai also objected to the US conferring legitimacy to the Taliban. "You betrayed me!" Karzai shouted at Ryan Crocker, the US Ambassador to Afghanistan, during a meeting in late 2011.

According to the New Yorker, the peace talks did not bear fruits for many years because the Taliban objected to talking with the Afghan government, instead insisting for direct talks with the United States.

The peace talks got serious during Donald Trump
...His ancestors didn't own any slaves...
's administration because the US president was determined to pull out US soldiers from Afghanistan, the report says.

Throughout the negotiations between the Taliban and the Trump Administration, Ashraf Ghani
...former chancellor of Kabul University, ex-president of Afghanistan. Before returning to Afghanistan in 2002 he was a scholar of political science and anthropology. He worked at the World Bank working on international development assistance. As Finance Minister of Afghanistan between July 2002 and December 2004, he led Afghanistan's attempted economic recovery until the Karzais stole all the money. When Biden abandoned the country left with a helicopter, four cars, and part of the national treasury...
and his government were sidelined.

To have leverage, Ghani maintained back channels to American politicians who were supportive of the war, the report says. Ghani, for instance, maintained ties with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham
...soft-spoken senator from South Carolina, former best buddy of John Maverick McCain. Since McCain's demise, Graham has become more outspoken, more Republican and more of a supporter of President Trump. The speech he gave in support of Brett Kavanaugh was downright manly and really cheesed off the Dems...
, who was advocating for the US’s presence in Afghanistan.

Many US officials believed that Ghani had no interest in peace talks. "He preferred the status quo," Khalilzad said. "It kept him in power."

According to the New Yorker, Trump even had asked Zalmay Khalilzad, the then US envoy for Afghan peace, to provide the Taliban with money if that would encourage them to have a peace deal.

Trump asked Khalilzad if he could give the Taliban "something to make them cooperate."

"What are you talking about, Mr. President?"

"Like money."

"No," Khalilzad replied. "They’re on a terrorism list. We can’t give them money."

Finally, the US and the Taliban drafted a deal which was signed in February 2020. When Khalilzad told Trump that Ghani was not happy with the draft deal, Trump replied: "Why are you wasting your time going to talk to Ghani? He’s a crook."

When on July 2021 Ghani met President Joe The Big Guy Biden
Joe <q>The Big Guy</q> Biden

...46th president of the U.S., who gives the term geriatric a bad name. He blames Afghans for losing Afghanistan....
in Washington, Shaharzad Akbar, the chairwoman of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) was also in Washington, meeting with human rights
...not to be confused with individual rights, mind you...
groups. The report quoted her saying she was disappointed about peace when she heard that many Americans had already concluded that Afghanistan was a lost cause. "I ended up crying a lot that evening," Akbar said. She returned to Kabul and went from embassy to embassy requesting visas for her staff.

According to the New Yorker, Ghani asked for military assistance from Biden, such as more helicopters, and the continuation of logistical support by the American contractions. Biden’s response was vague, according to Afghan officials present in the room.

The New Yorker touched upon the release of Taliban prisoners, quoting American officials saying that Khalilzad wanted a deal to be signed and that he was ready to gives almost everything to the Taliban.

Khalilzad "plainly wanted a deal and seemed willing to give the Taliban almost everything," said Andru Wall, a Navy commander at the Resolute Support Mission. "It was not clear if we had any true red lines."

According to the report, the then US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a meeting with Ghani in Kabul urged him to be flexible about releasing the Taliban’s prisoners and assured him that "The United States is your leverage. If we do not get what we want, we will not leave," he said. "We will only leave when there is a political resolution."

"This clarity that you will stand with us in the negotiation is something that we have never had," Ghani told him, according to the report.

The New Yorker said the Taliban had agreed on terms over counterterrorism and restrictions on fighting, especially stopping Taliban fighters from attacking US and NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A collection of multinational and multilingual and multicultural armed forces, all of differing capabilities, working toward a common goal by pulling in different directions...
troops as they withdraw based on the agreement. "If one American dies after the deal is signed, then the deal is off," Miller told the Taliban envoys before the Doha deal.

Based on the Doha deal, the intra-Afghan peace talks was scheduled for March 10, 2020, to seek an enduring peace in Afghanistan. The talks, however, started six months later than the date specified in the deal.

Abdul Matin Bek, an advisor to Ghani and a member of the republic negotiation team, had told Khalilzad that the Taliban were not willing to make a political settlement. He told Khalilzad "wake up." "Please, for God’s sake, the Taliban are not in favor of negotiations, they are not in favor of a political settlement," he said. "They’re really on a victory march," the report said.

The talks did not bear fruit, while at the same time war intensified in the country, which according to Miller was clearly "violations in spirit, if not the written word" of the Doha deal.

The intra-Afghan talks did not lead to peace and the Taliban continued overrunning provinces. Kabul finally fell on August 15th, 2021.

According to the report, on August 14, a day before Kabul’s fall, Hamdullah Mohib, the national security adviser, had learned that one of his colleagues at the Presidential Palace was on a list of at-risk Afghans approved by the US embassy for evacuation. "That afternoon, Mohib spoke by phone with a contact at the State Department. During a discussion about peace talks, Mohib paused to ask, "Is there an evacuation plan for us, for me and Ghani? The official asked for something in writing."

Link

Afghanistan

Obama's Former Ambassador to Afghanistan: I Question Biden's 'Ability to Lead Our Nation'

2021-08-17

You supported him against that dreadful Donald Trump? You voted for him last November? Then you own this outcome, buddy — no excuses accepted.

[BREITBART] The fall of Afghanistan has shocked Obama’s former ambassador to such a degree that he is now questioning President Joe The Big Guy Biden
...46th president of the U.S. Old, boring, a plagiarist, fond of hair sniffing and grabbing the protruding parts of women, and not whatcha call brilliant... or is that an act?...
’s ability to lead the nation.Speaking with The Spokesman-Review, Ryan Crocker, who served as Obama’s ambassador from 2011 to 2012, lamented that the Biden administration (aka the Wilmington comorra)

Biden administration (aka the Wilmington comorra)

...knaves, footpads, and adjusters employed by the Biden Crime Family. They leave a trail of havoc everywhere they turn their attention, be it the nation's borders, the Keystone XL Pipeline, or epidemics, sometimes on purpose, most times through sheer arrogant ineptitude. They learnt this stuff in college, you know...
failed to see the Taliban
...Arabic for students...
’s swift takeover when preparing for the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

"I think the direction was predictable; the trajectory was not," he said. "What President Joe Biden
...... 46th president of the U.S., father of Hunter......
has done is to embrace the Afghan policy of President Trump, and this is the outcome."

Just a little over a month ago, Joe Biden rejected assertions that U.S. withdrawal would lead to another "Fall of Saigon" moment, wherein Americans and their allies would be fleeing Kabul as the country crumbled around them.

"Mr. President, some Vietnamese veterans see echoes of their experience in this withdrawal in Afghanistan. Do you see any parallels between this withdrawal and what happened in Vietnam?" Biden was asked on July 8.

"None whatsoever," Biden replied. "Zero. What you had is you had entire brigades breaking through the gates of our embassy — six, if I’m not mistaken. The Taliban is not the South — the North Vietnamese army. They’re not — they’re not remotely comparable in terms of capability. There’s going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of an embassy in the — of the United States from Afghanistan. It is not at all comparable."

While Crocker was critical of former President Trump’s plan to withdraw from Afghanistan and negotiate with the Taliban, he believed the Biden administration should have been ready to provide adequate air support to Afghan forces stationed throughout the country. In February of last year, then-President Trump said his administration’s agreement of withdrawal would be contingent upon the Taliban’s cooperation.

"If bad things happen, we’ll go back," Trump said.

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo equally promised, "Today, we are realistic. We are seizing the best opportunity for peace in a generation. Today, we are restrained. We recognize that America shouldn’t fight in perpetuity in the graveyard of empires if we can help Afghans forge peace."

The spectacle of the Taliban overtaking Kabul as the United States withdrawals could have consequences for years to come, according to Crocker, who fears that Islamists will now have a calling card of victory to better its recruiting strategies.

Link

International-UN-NGOs

Trump pardon of Blackwater Iraq contractors violates international law: UN

2020-12-31

I’m pretty sure President Trump does not agree.

[AlAhram] 'Pardoning the Blackwater contractors is an affront to justice and to the victims of the Nisour Square massacre and their families,' said the UN working group on the use of mercenaries in a statement.

US President Donald Trump

...The man who was so stupid he beat fourteen professional politicians, a former tech CEO, and a brain surgeon for the Republican nomination in 2016, then beat The Smartest Woman in the World in the general election...
's pardon of four American men convicted of killing Iraqi civilians while working as contractors in 2007 violated US obligations under international law, UN human rights
...which are usually entirely different from personal liberty...
experts said on Wednesday.

Nicholas Slatten was convicted of first-degree murder, while Paul Slough, Evan Liberty and Dustin Heard were convicted of voluntary and attempted manslaughter, over the incident in which US contractors opened fire in busy traffic in a Baghdad square and killed 14 unarmed Iraqi civilians.

The four contractors, who worked for the private security firm Blackwater owned by the brother of Trump's education secretary, were included in a wave of pre-Christmas pardons announced by the White House.

"Pardoning the Blackwater contractors is an affront to justice and to the victims of the Nisour Square massacre and their families," said Jelena Aparac, chair of the UN working group on the use of mercenaries, said in a statement.
Perhaps Jelena needs sanctions and a ban on travel to the US
The Geneva Conventions oblige states to hold war criminals accountable for their crimes, even when they act as private security contractors, the UN experts said.

"These pardons violate US obligations under international law and more broadly undermine humanitarian law and human rights at a global level."

By allowing private security contractors to "operate with impunity in armed conflicts", states will be emboldened to circumvent their obligations under humanitarian law, they said.

The pardons were strongly criticised by many in the United States. General David Petraeus and Ryan Crocker, respectively commander of US forces and US ambassador in Iraq at the time of the incident, called Trump's pardons "hugely damaging, an action that tells the world that Americans abroad can commit the most heinous crimes with impunity".

In a statement announcing the pardons, the White House said the move was "broadly supported by the public" and backed by a number of Republican politicians.

Link

-Land of the Free

No. 3 U.S. diplomat quits in latest departure under Trump

2018-02-02

And so the unforced downsizing of the executive branch continues, one decision to quit or retire at a time. It will soon be noticed that there were a great many middle ranking men and women perfectly capable of managing the promotions they had so patiently been waiting for.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. State Department’s third-ranking official, Tom Shannon, said on Thursday he was stepping down, the latest senior career diplomat to exit since President Donald Trump took office a year ago. Shannon, who serves as under secretary of state for political affairs, is the most senior career diplomat at the State Department and has been a fixture among the nation’s diplomatic ranks during more than 34 years of service. In a letter to department staff, Shannon, 60, said he was resigning for personal reasons.

"My decision is personal, and driven by a desire to attend to my family, take stock of my life, and set a new direction for my remaining years," Shannon wrote in a note to staff after informing U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Thursday of his decision to retire.

Shannon worked recently on some of the most complex and sensitive issues, including Iran’s compliance with the landmark nuclear deal and fraught relations with Russia.

Shannon’s departure is part of a steady stream of senior career diplomats who have left since Trump became president. It will deprive the State Department of a seasoned veteran at a time when the United States is grappling with crises on several fronts, most notably North Korea’s nuclear threat. His calm demeanor, language skills and decades of experience made him a frequent choice for some of the thorniest assignments.

Shannon this month represented the United States at the inauguration of Liberia's new president, George Weah, the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the region after reported remarks by Trump that immigrants from Africa and Haiti come from "shithole" countries.

Shannon, who was ambassador to Brazil from 2005 to 2009 and served in posts in Cameroon, Gabon and Johannesburg, was tasked by former President Barack Obama in 2015 with improving acrimonious relations with Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro.

He was seen as a stabilizing force after Trump and Tillerson took office with a promise to downsize the State Department and policies. He had to manage growing dissent among career diplomats over the new president's policies that antagonized Muslim nations and long-time allies in Europe and in Mexico.

The forcing out of many senior diplomats, the failure to nominate or to win Senate confirmation for officials to fill key agency roles, and a perception that Tillerson is inaccessible have eroded morale, according to current officials.

The State Department's Under Secretary of State for Public Affairs, Steve Goldstein, said Shannon's departure was not related to low morale and called him "an amazing man."

Tillerson in November said he was offended by claims that the State Department was being hollowed out under Trump, saying it was functioning well despite scathing criticism from former American diplomats including Nicholas Burns and Ryan Crocker.

In a statement on Thursday, Tillerson congratulated Shannon on a distinguished career saying "his time was well spent."

"I particularly appreciate his depth of knowledge, the role he played during the transition ...and his contributions to our strategy process over the past year," Tillerson said.

In his note, Shannon said he had agreed to stay on until a successor had been named and to ensure a smooth transition.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Politico - Will the Champ refight Reagan's war with Iran

2015-05-04

[Politico] President Champ must have spent last week wondering if he'd stumbled back into the 1980s as he responded to new Iranian aggressions in the Strait of Hormuz and ordered the Navy's 5th Fleet to escort ships transiting the Persian Gulf. The headlines could have been ripped right out of Ronald Reagan's presidency, when naval engagements with Iran became all-too commonplace.

It's a chapter of history that most U.S. policymakers--and too many military officers--have long forgotten. But the Iranians certainly haven't.

That's because the ones in charge now were very involved then.

Ryan Crocker, one of America's old Middle East hands and whose first posting as a newly minted diplomat was to Khorramshahr during the days of the Shah, once explained, "For Iran, history is not the past, but the present." Just as Vietnam shaped a generation of American military officers, the Tanker War of the 1980s profoundly influenced the thinking of Iran's current military leaders; in fact, today Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy is headed by a veteran of that war.

See?

The 1980s conflict also has influenced the Iranian military's view of any future war with the United States, and it's spent decades ensuring that it won't repeat the crippling mistakes made fighting a previous U.S. president.

Unfortunately, the Pentagon has begun listening to those lessons only recently.

Link

Iraq

Back to Fallujah

2014-01-09

[DAWN] ONE can only wonder whether there was an element of déjà vu involved in this week's urgent despatch of armaments by the US to the Iraqi military as the latter prepared to re-conquer Fallujah.

After all, it was 10 years ago that four American contractors working for Blackwater were ambushed by one of the many gangs resisting the US occupation, and their charred corpses were subsequently suspended from a bridge across the Euphrates. This grotesque display led to some of the most vicious battles of the Iraq war. It was several months before Fallujah could be retaken.

The names Anbar and Ramadi -- the western governate encompassing about one-third of Iraq, and its capital city -- may also ring a bell. The province was insurgency central until the occupying army coerced, cajoled and bribed tribal leaders into what was dubbed the Sunni Awakening, which made it much harder for the outfit known as Al Qaeda in Iraq to use the area as a base for its operations.

That modus vivendi was falling apart even before the US completed its military withdrawal, with the successor regime of

Nouri al-Maliki
... Prime Minister of Iraq and the secretary-general of the Islamic Dawa Party....
reluctant to cultivate the tribal sheikhs it viewed as sectarian adversaries, just as it diverged more broadly from American recipes for relative Shia-Sunni harmony.

Resentments have consequently been building up, and the attack by government forces on a Sunni protest camp in Ramadi -- not for the first time -- brought matters to a head. It also offered an opportunity for the reincarnation of Al Qaeda in Iraq, now known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Al Sham (ISIS), which stepped into the breach and occupied large parts of Fallujah and relatively smaller segments of Ramadi.

Maliki responded by threatening military action unless local forces drove out what is invariably referred to as an Al Qaeda affiliate. It appears, though, that many of the tribal sheikhs are as wary of Storied Baghdad
...located along the Tigris River, founded in the 8th century, home of the Abbasid Caliphate...
's army as they are of the jihadists aiming at a caliphate encompassing Iraq, Syria and possibly even Leb.

When ISIS took control of Fallujah and parts of Ramadi at the turn of the year, an Iraqi government source suggested its immediate intent was to declare a caliphate encompassing Anbar and segments of Syria. Nothing of the sort had come to pass at the time of writing, but it wasn't an inaccurate assessment of the ISIS aim, with the 'Al Sham' part of its nomenclature assumed to include Leb.

It is widely believed that during the initial Iraq conflict, Syria's President Bashar Al Assad facilitated the influx of Salafist jihadis into the war zone. It is possible, of course, that he merely turned a blind eye to the phenomenon. The point, however, is that the Iraq-Syria border hasn't become particularly less porous in the interim (although it has been reported that Turkey has been the most popular conduit for jihadis into Syria), and ISIS has long been active on the Syrian side.

It has lately encountered a few road bumps, though, with even Salafist elements in the Syrian opposition choosing to combat it in rebel-held areas of the country. Internationally, though, its leading role in the Syrian conflict has prompted some rethinking, with the likes of Ryan Crocker -- a former US ambassador in Damascus, Storied Baghdad, Kabul and Islamabad -- suggesting that Assad should not be written out of the picture, and vociferous local opponents of the Syrian president admitting that, given a choice between ISIS and Assad, they would opt for the latter.

During the Iraq war, it was claimed more than once that Al Qaeda had been more or less eliminated from the country, without, not surprisingly, any mention of the fact that its very genesis in Iraq was a direct consequence of US intervention. That claim was at the very least a gross exaggeration.

It could be argued that ISIS and its predecessor organization were only whimsically offshoots of the late Osama bin Laden
... who is now beyond all cares and woe...
's and Ayman Al

Zawahiri
... Formerly second in command of al-Qaeda, now the head cheese, occasionally described as the real brains of the outfit. Formerly the Mister Big of Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Bumped off Abdullah Azzam with a car boom in the course of one of their little disputes. Is thought to have composed bin Laden's fatwa entitled World Islamic Front Against Jews and Crusaders. Currently residing in the North Wazoo area. That is not a horn growing from the middle of his forehead, but a prayer bump, attesting to how devout he is...
's outfit, given that neither Abu Musab Al Zarqawi nor Abu Bakr Al Storied Baghdadi were inclined to strictly follow instructions, but that is somewhat besides the point in view of the broad ideological convergence. Notwithstanding the strategic and tactical differences, the obscurantist goal is generally the same.

It was a long time ago, or so it seems, that US determination to invade Iraq spurred warnings of what it would mean for the 'Arab street'. That street remained fairly quiet for a while. And when it erupted, it did so in a manner that threw Washington off balance. The crucial venue, it has turned out, is not the street but the battlefield, where the Islamist equivalents of the ideologically driven American neocons are now determined to have their way.

Hopefully, in this case too, their ambitions will ultimately be thwarted. As before, though, it may take a while.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Rohani Taps U.S.-Educated Foreign Minister to End Iran Sanctions

2013-08-06

[BLOOMBERG] Hassan Rohani's appointment of Mohammad Javad Zarif as his foreign minister suggests the new Iranian president would like to break the 34-year impasse between the Islamic Theocratic Republic and the U.S.

Zarif, 53, a fluent English speaker who earned his doctorate at the University of Denver, is a former ambassador to the United Nations
...aka the Oyster Bay Chowder and Marching Society...
who has been involved in several secret negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over the past 20 years.

"He'll be an excellent face for Iran, but his ability to steer policy depends on what latitude the Supreme Leader gives him," said Ryan Crocker, a former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, who has met Zarif on several occasions. "Iran's condition is an excellent reason for diplomacy, he said.

Rohani, 64, who took his oath of office yesterday, said the U.S. and the European Union
...the successor to the Holy Roman Empire, only without the Hapsburgs and the nifty uniforms and the dancing...
should drop sanctions imposed to stop the country's nuclear enrichment program. Over the past year, the sanctions have crippled Iran's economy, sending inflation above 40 percent while the national currency the rial has lost more than 50 percent of its value against the dollar.

Link

-Short Attention Span Theater-

Former ambassador to Afghanistan charged with DUI, hit & run.

2012-08-24

SPOKANE, Wash. Former U.S. ambassador Ryan Crocker is facing hit-and-run and intoxicated driving charges in Washington state, authorities said Thursday. Crocker has served in the Middle East for 30 years, and survived the 1983 bombing of the US embassy in Lebanon. He had retired, but for some months returned to service as ambassador to Afghanistan. His last day as ambassador was 13 July.
? PTSD ?

Link

Afghanistan

Insurgency Hurts the Host Country Most: Crocker

2012-05-16

[Tolo News] Any country that supports Death Eater groups should realise its hurts themselves more than hurting the US and Afghanistan, US Ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker said Monday.

In his recent trip to Jalalabad, Crocker emphasised that Afghanistan's neighbors should change their strategic thinking because the US will stand by Afghanistan in any situation where it is threatened as it clearly states in the Afghan-US strategic agreement.

"I hope they change their strategic thinking and realise that supporting groups like the Taliban and Haqqanis hurts them as much as they hurt you or us. Whatever the case we will stand with Afghanistan," Crocker said at a presser in Jalalabad on Monday.

The Ambassador met with the provincial governor of Nangarhar
The unfortunate Afghan province located adjacent to Mohmand, Kurram, and Khyber Agencies. The capital is Jalalabad. The province was the fief of Younus Khalis after the Soviets departed and one of his sons is the current provincial Taliban commander. Nangarhar is Haqqani country..
Gul Agha Shirzoy and other local officials to discuss matters of security, development of governance, and economic sectors.

"Electrical infrastructure, roads, and agricultural projects should be completed in the province," Shirzoy said at the presser.

The officials have also talked about the transfer of security responsibilities from foreign forces to Afghan cops.

Link

Afghanistan

Stop killing civilians or strategic pact is off, Karzai tells US

2012-05-08

[Iran Press TV] Afghanistan's Caped President Hamid Maybe I'll join the Taliban Karzai

... A former Baltimore restaurateur, now 12th and current President of Afghanistan, displacing the legitimate president Rabbani in December 2004. He was installed as the dominant political figure after the removal of the Taliban regime in late 2001 in a vain attempt to put a Pashtun face on the successor state to the Taliban. After the 2004 presidential election, he was declared president regardless of what the actual vote count was. He won a second, even more dubious, five-year-term after the 2009 presidential election. His grip on reality has been slipping steadily since around 2007, probably from heavy drug use...
says the strategic pact signed by Kabul and Washington will be at risk if US-led forces continue to kill Afghan civilians.

On Monday, Karzai summoned the commander of NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A collection of multinational and multilingual and multicultural armed forces, all of differing capabilities, working toward a common goal by pulling in different directions...
forces in Afghanistan, General John Allen, and US Ambassador Ryan Crocker to warn them that civilian casualties in military operations threatened the pact, AFP reported.

On May 1, 2012, Washington and Kabul signed an agreement to extend the US military presence in Afghanistan to 2024.

Shortly after arriving in the war-torn country in an unannounced trip late at night on May 1, US President Barack Obama
Why can't I just eat my waffle?...
met Karzai, and both signed the deal that authorizes the presence of US troops for a period of 10 years after 2014, which was the original date agreed upon for the departure of all foreign combat troops from Afghanistan.

A statement from Karzai's office said that since Saturday, dozens of Afghan civilians, including women and kiddies, had been killed in NATO ~~Arclight~~ airstrikes in four provinces -- Pashtun-infested Logar and Helmand
...an Afghan province populated mostly by Pashtuns, adjacent to Injun country in Pak Balochistan...
in the south, Kapisa in the east, and Badghis in the northwest.

The statement said that President Karzai signed the pact with the US to protect the lives of Afghans and if civilian deaths are not prevented, the pact will lose its validity.

"If the lives of Afghans are not protected, the strategic partnership will lose its meaning," the statement quoted Karzai as saying.

US-led troops have been fighting in Afghanistan since 2001. Their initial offensive removed the Taliban from power, but insecurity continues to rise across the country despite the presence of about 130,000 foreign forces.

Link

Afghanistan

US, Afghanistan finalize strategic pact

2012-04-22

Afghan and U.S. officials finalized a long-awaited strategic partnership deal Sunday that is meant to set forth guidelines for U.S. involvement in Afghanistan as forces draw down, the two governments said.

Afghan and U.S. officials had said that they expected to sign the deal before a NATO summit in May but a series of disagreements had threatened to derail the partnership in recent months. Some of the most contentious issues were removed from the broader pact into separate memorandums of understanding.

"The document finalized today provides a strong foundation for the security of Afghanistan, the region and the world and is a document for the development of the region," Afghan National Security Adviser Rangin Dadfar Spanta was quoted as saying.

U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker and Spanta initialed the document at a ceremony in the capital, a statement from President Hamid Karzai's office said. U.S. embassy spokesman Gavin Sundwall confirmed the same information.

"The agreement is now ready for signature by both the presidents," Karzai's office said.

At the signing, Spanta said the agreement had taken more than a year and a half of work, according to the Afghan statement.

Link

Warning: Undefined property: stdClass::$T in /data/rantburg.com/www/pgrecentorg.php on line 132
-12 More