Recent Appearances...

Warning: Undefined array key "rbname" in /data/rantburg.com/www/pgrecentorg.php on line 14
Hello !
Recent Appearances...

Afghanistan

'The people who control the country.' How Afghanistan has changed under the Taliban

2024-05-31

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semeov

Russia is determined to normalize relations, and will say anything to do so. Count up the fictions as you read, dearReader.

[REGNUM] The problems of Afghanistan are known, but the real power there lies with the Taliban movement and this cannot be ignored, Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with the press following his visit to Uzbekistan on May 28.

“There are problems in Afghanistan, they are undeniable, everyone is well aware of them. The question of how to build relationships with the current government is another question. But we have to build it somehow, these are the people who control the country, control the territory of the country. They are the power in Afghanistan today,” the Russian President said.

A day earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also made it clear that Russia is going to remove the Taliban from the list of terrorists, on which it is still included.

“Kazakhstan recently made a decision, which we are also going to make, to remove them from the list of terrorist organizations. Moreover, the UN Security Council did not declare the Taliban as a terrorist organization.

It only takes one veto, or the threat of one.

There are, in my opinion, 12–15 specific characters on the list of terrorists,” Lavrov told reporters.

Initially, the Taliban came under international sanctions and were included in terrorist lists not so much because of their own actions, but because of their support for other terrorist organizations. For example, Al-Qaeda, whose representatives received asylum in Afghanistan.

Al Qaeda is still there, as are all their little buddies. And ISIS-K is one of the leading exporters of jihad among the ISIS franchises. Some of these have connections, and have been causing trouble, in Russia.

Of course, the Taliban was and remains a fundamentalist movement, but both now and during the period of the first Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA - the Taliban state) distanced itself from obvious terrorist activities.

The Taliban, unlike Al-Qaeda and ISIS, have never advocated the dismantling of the world order and “global jihad.”

But they support — and intermarry with — those who do. Tomaytoes, tomahtoes.

During their first statehood in the 1990s, they maintained diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Pakistan. Neighboring Turkmenistan was then close to recognizing them.

At the moment, it has also become obvious that all concerns about the hypothetical expansion of the Taliban into neighboring countries have remained at the level of speculation and speculation. The Taliban movement has demonstrated in practice that it intends to build good neighborly relations with all its neighbors.

They’e still at the consolidation phase, and can’t afford external wars as well as the internal ones.

For Moscow, of course, the positive attitude of the Afghan authorities towards Russia itself and its approaches to international affairs also plays a role.

As political scientist and orientalist Mir-Ali Askerov, who recently returned from Afghanistan, told IA Regnum, “there has never been a situation in which, when you say that you are from Russia, it causes some kind of negativity, that is, it either causes at least something neutral, positive, or strictly positive attitude. The Afghans express their gratitude for the fact that you visited their country and, in general, offer their help there in every possible way.”

I assume Mr. Askerov is male.

Askerov emphasized that Afghans look with hope at the confrontation between Russia and the collective West, with the hope that Russia “will be able to withstand this onslaught, this pressure and will be able to achieve a revision of this monopolar world order.”

No doubt.

YOU CAN WALK AT NIGHT
As Russian officials have rightly noted, the Taliban are making good progress in nation-building.

Although the country has serious economic problems and terrorist groups continue to operate, the risk of political and economic collapse is assessed as minimal, and the country has also managed to overcome crime and make the lives of citizens safer.

According to Askerov, the crime situation has become much better than during the reign of Ashraf Ghani and the Americans, and during that period he also had the opportunity to visit Afghanistan.

“ You can now walk around Kabul at night, during the day, at any time of the day and in any area, it is absolutely safe. The only problem is pickpockets, but this is only a problem of large markets,” said the orientalist.

Again, Mr. Askerov is not female.

At the same time, security is ensured in a much “softer” way than during the American occupation.

“Of course, there are many guards and checkpoints in the city, but they do not create the impression of a police state, as during the American presence with rough searches and searches of everyone. On the streets you can also see employees of the ministry of “commanding what is good and prohibiting what is bad” (morality police), but they act unobtrusively, politely and rather try to explain or explain something rather than prohibit and detain, so this does not cause any rejection or conflicts,” Askerov noted.

No, no, perish the thought.

At the same time, he said, some problems remain, despite the optimism of Afghans:

“The population perceives current changes positively and looks to the future with hope. But, of course, Afghans live poorly, and even the wealthiest live very modestly by our standards; economic problems have not gone away.”

Nevertheless, the Taliban still managed to somewhat stabilize the economy.

Afghanistan's foreign trade fell after they seized power. However, despite the decline in imports, most of the country's income now comes from taxes.

As experts note, the Afghan economy is no longer in a state of free fall and appears to be frozen in a precarious balance, albeit at the lowest level.

Modest positive trends include lower inflation, exchange rate stability, some recovery in imports, a more than doubling of exports,

…opium and heroin, right?

stable or slightly increased labor demand and continued wage levels.

Of course, the problem of Afghan drug trafficking remains.

Opium and heroin, yes.

However, it arose long before the Taliban came to power and was “chronic” for this country.

The Taliban took control of it during their first tenure, and never let go.

Nevertheless, the IEA leadership is making efforts to limit the production of opiates.

Thus, according to a 2023 UN report, poppy cultivation in southern Afghanistan fell by more than 80% as a result of Taliban campaigns to stop its use in opium production. For example, the decline in poppy cultivation in Helmand province has dropped by 99%.

In November 2023, a UN report found that throughout Afghanistan, poppy cultivation had fallen by more than 95%, depriving the country of its status as the world's largest opium producer.

The warehouses were full to bursting. No point in producing more until that supply is used up and the price increases.

Although Iran does not agree with such optimistic assessments, since, according to Iranian officials, supplies of opium and heroin from Afghanistan to their country continued in large volumes.

See?

The Taliban have also made progress in dialogue and taking into account the interests of ethno-confessional minorities living in the country, primarily the Shiite Hazaras, who were able to gain access to some leadership positions, which may indicate the movement’s readiness to follow the path of forming an inclusive government.

Tokens to shut up the rubes.

However, problems remain with the Uzbek and Tajik minorities, who are dissatisfied with the fact that their representatives, not associated with the Taliban, are still not represented in the IEA power structures.

"RED TROOPS"
An important factor in recognizing the Taliban and removing terrorist labels from the movement is its success in suppressing the activity and presence of international terrorist organizations such as ISIS and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

It is significant that the Americans, who spent 20 years trying to eradicate the brainchild of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan, were forced to recognize this success. But as soon as they left, the Taliban themselves solved this problem.

In particular, as Christy Abizaid, director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, stated on September 11, 2023, "al-Qaeda is in its historic decline in Afghanistan and Pakistan and its resurgence is unlikely."

She also cited declassified data that the group had "lost access to targets, leadership talent, group cohesion, grassroots commitment, and supportive local environment." She said the terrorist organization's ability to threaten from Afghanistan " is at its lowest level" since it moved there in 1998.

The Taliban were also able to suppress the activity of ISIS and its local affiliate ISIS-K in Afghanistan.

Within Afghanistan, anyway. Or perhaps just reports of their activities. But not abroad.

After a significant increase in their activity, due to the security vacuum created in some parts of the country after the US withdrawal, the Taliban changed this dynamic, depriving the terrorists of control over certain territories that they were able to acquire by following the Americans fleeing the country.

Their activities were dealt a blow, and activity over the past year has decreased significantly, which was noted in the relevant reports of international structures.

It is noted that the Taliban were able to conduct a successful campaign against ISIS-X and eliminated most of the sleeper cells that were ready to continue terrorist attacks in Afghan cities. After a surge in the number of terrorist attacks in the first months after the Taliban came to power, their number begins to decline as a result of counter-terrorism measures by the IEA security structures.

In particular, in 2022–2023. the number of terrorist attacks and other attacks by ISIS-X has decreased significantly. If in the first year of Taliban rule (2021-2022) there were 314 attacks and assaults, then in 2022-2023. only 69 - that is, less than during any period of activity of the group in Afghanistan since its inception.

The Taliban’s fight against ISIS is systematic and consistent; for this purpose, special counter-terrorism forces have been created in Afghanistan that can effectively counter it.

This counter-terrorism unit is called "Red Squad", or "Sara Kheta" in Pashto.

... also known as Red Unit, Red Brigade, Blood Unit, Danger Group, and Taliban Special Forces Unit. The Taliban’s special forces/shock troops unit was first deployed in Sangin town in Helmand province in 2016, then claimed a victory against ISIS-Khurasan in 2018. They were most active in Kunduz, Baghlan, and Faryab Provinces.

It is divided into several battalions of 300–350 men, selected by field commanders from among the fighters based on their discipline, dedication and skills. Each battalion operates in a separate province, but within the Red Squad there is also a battalion-sized group of the most trained elite forces known as Badri 313.

The Badri 313 Battalion was trained by the Haqqani network and based at Salahaddin Ayyubi Military Operations Academy. There is evidence it was at one point al Qaeda's military arm in Pakistan, with members gleaned from the Taliban and Pakistan’s pet jihadi groups including Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Jundallah, used for nasty attacks on the Pakistani army under the leadership of Ilyas Kashmiri (until 2011) followed by Shah Sahib.

In emergency situations, units work together to cover a multi-province area.

It was the “Red Detachments” that defeated the ISIS in the province of Nangarhar, which was a stronghold of terrorists. After which part of the “Red Detachment” battalions was transferred to the province of Kunar, which was soon also cleared of ISIS militants.

Of course, it is too early to talk about a complete victory over ISIS in Afghanistan.

But a significant decrease in terrorist activity allows the Taliban movement to establish economic ties with foreign partners and organize business trips to this country.

Therefore, Russia, acting proactively, can economically enter Afghanistan before others, officially recognizing the Taliban movement as the legitimate Afghan government.

Before this, there were many factors that forced our entrepreneurs to act with caution in Afghanistan, including the fear of persecution for justifying and financing terrorism.

By removing the Taliban from the terrorist lists, Moscow can speed up the implementation of economic projects in Afghanistan and begin absolutely legal, not “gray” investments.

Link

Afghanistan

Explosion rocks a New Kabul Bank branch in Kandahar, injuring 8

2024-03-22

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

[Regnum] An explosion occurred on March 21 at a branch of New Kabul Bank in the Afghan city of Kandahar. Eight people were injured, crisis24 portal reported. garda.com.

The department is located near the city police building.

According to the police, the explosion was aimed at people who came to the bank to collect their salaries. All of them are members of the Taliban (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation).

So far, no group has claimed responsibility for the explosion.

As Regnum reported, in early February, an explosion occurred near the headquarters of a political party in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. Eight people died.

The incident occurred the day before the parliamentary elections.

Link

Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

American general says the Russian military should not be underestimated

2024-03-02

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] US Army Chief of Staff General Randy George

…that poor man. His boyhood must have been hell…

said that the Russian military has made great progress during the Ukrainian conflict and should not be underestimated. The American Military Watch Magazine wrote about this.

“You can’t underestimate your opponent. You shouldn’t start with this,” the publication quotes George as saying.

He also noted the Russian military's ability to adapt and its progress in drones and electronic warfare.

In addition, according to the military man, Russia has succeeded in developing its industrial base.

As Regnum reported, former US intelligence officer Scott Ritter said that the Russian Armed Forces have deprived Ukrainian troops of the ability to effectively use unmanned aerial vehicles, while continuing to destroy drone operators. He emphasized that the Russian military was able to adapt as quickly as possible to the massive use of drones by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Earlier, Ukrainian Armed Forces Colonel Ivan Pavlenko said that Russia’s mass production and use of unmanned aerial vehicles in the special military operation zone has become a great threat to Ukrainian troops. It is noted that Ukraine is significantly behind the Russian Federation in terms of the effectiveness of electronic warfare systems, which has led to an even greater inability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to resist Russian UAVs.

Link

Afghanistan

Resurgent al-Qaida training camps latest black eye from Biden Afghanistan withdrawal

2024-02-25

[JustTheNews] UN report claims al-Qaida now has eight training camps in Taliban-controlled country.

Two reports released just days apart are providing stark new evidence of the lasting consequences of President Joe Biden’s bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan and his administration’s dealings with the Taliban ever since.

The United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team reported late last month that the terrorist group al-Qaida, though weakened from its heyday in the early 2000s, has reconstituted as many as eight training camps and five religious training schools known as madrassas on Afghan soil under the Taliban’s rule while also increasing its propaganda operations and recruitment.

“The relationship between the Taliban and Al-Qaida remains close, and the latter maintains a holding pattern in Afghanistan under Taliban patronage,” the report stated bluntly. “Regional States assess that the presence of Al-Qaida senior figures in the country has not changed and that the group continues to pose a threat in the region, and potentially beyond.”

You can read the full report here.

While the UN report blamed the Taliban for its hosting of al-Qaida, the Biden administration continued to send massive humanitarian dollars to the Afghan regime, in many cases through the UN and global charities, according to a separate report from an American watchdog.

John Sopko, the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, reported a few days after the UN report was issued that the United States accounted for all but $300 million of the $2.9 billion in humanitarian aid sent to the Taliban since the withdrawal of American troops in August 2021. Most of it, he noted, came in cash.

“The U.S. is the largest international donor, having provided about $2.6 billion in funding for the UN, other PIOs, and NGOs operating in Afghanistan since August 2021,” the report noted. “More than $1.7 billion of that funding came from State and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to support humanitarian activities.”

You can read Sopko's report here.

Experts said the flow of cash to help the Taliban while it allows al-Qaida to flourish sends a dangerous message to bad actors, and much of it is routed through the very UN that issued the report.

“America is the biggest funder of this thing. So the United States taxpayer is disproportionately on the hook paying for these activities,” former Deputy National Security Adviser Victoria Coates said recently.

And coupled with the billions in high-tech weaponry Biden left behind in Afghanistan, the dynamic is creating heartburn in Congress.

“This administration has a history of giving money to terrorist organizations, abandoning $80 billion worth of military equipment in Afghanistan so the Taliban can run around with our M4s and our Blackhawks, and all of our equipment. They have an American last agenda,” Rep. Greg Steube, R-Fla., told the Just the News, No Noise television show last week.

The Taliban, of course, claims it does not harbor al-Qaida and that the UN report was “propaganda.”

"There is no one related to al Qaeda in Afghanistan, nor does the Islamic Emirate allow anyone to use the territory of Afghanistan against others," the Taliban said in a statement.

But U.S. officials told Just the News they have significant intelligence of al-Qaida’s presence and reconstitution inside Afghanistan since the Taliban overthrew the democratically elected government as U.S. troops were withdrawing in 2021.

They noted that when U.S. drones killed al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in 2022, he was living inside a Taliban Cabinet member’s guest house in Kabul’s diplomatic district.

U.S. officials added they are concerned by al-Qaida’s resilience, especially since American intelligence efforts have less visibility inside Afghanistan since the bungled withdrawal.

The UN report, culled from intelligence from its various member nations, said that while al-Qaida does not have the capability to command and conduct long-range terror attacks like 9/11 right now, it is clearly showing signs of expansion and regional reach after years of diminishment from the Bush to the Trump years.

“Al-Qaida was reported to have established up to eight new training camps in Afghanistan, including four in Ghazni, Laghman, Parwan and Uruzgan Provinces, with a new base to stockpile weaponry in the Panjshir Valley,” the report said. “Some camps might be temporary.

“Five Al-Qaida madrasas operate in Laghman, Kunar, Nangarhar, Nuristan and Parwan Provinces,” it added. “The group maintains safe houses to facilitate the movement between Afghanistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Provinces of Herat, Farah and Helmand, with additional safe house locations in Kabul.”

Equally troubling, the Islamic State terrorist group is also showing resiliency in several regions of the world, particularly Afghanistan, the UN warned.

“Member States assessed that, despite the recent loss of territory, casualties, and high attrition among senior and mid-tier leadership figures, ISIL-K continued to pose a major threat in Afghanistan and the region,” it noted.

Link

Afghanistan

ISIS claims responsibility for attack on civilians in Kabul

2024-01-08

[KhaamaPress] According to reports, ISIS-Khurasan has grabbed credit for the attack on civilians at the "Qala-e-Nazir Station" west of Kabul, which resulted in the deaths of two individuals and injuries to 14 others.

Khalid Zadran, the spokesperson for the Kabul police, confirmed that the earth-shattering kaboom occurred around 6:00 PM on Saturday night, in the vicinity of the sixth security district of Kabul city at the "Qala-e-Nazir Station." He stated that the attack involved a mini-bus vehicle, resulting in two deaths and 20 injuries.

In a statement, the Khurasan branch of ISIS claimed that 20 individuals were killed in this explosion.

Previously, in the aftermath of a bombing attack on a city bus in the Dasht-e-Barchi area,

...the West Kabul neighbourhood where the Hazaras live. They get massacred regularly, as both the Taliban and ISIS-K consider them heretics...

seven people were killed, and 20 others were maimed.

ISIS-K claimed that one, too.

It’s worth noting that the ISIS Khurasan branch has previously taken responsibility for deadly attacks against followers of the Shia community in Afghanistan at public places, including clubs, schools, mosques, educational centers, and hospitals.

Since the Taliban
Taliban

...Arabic for students...
assumed control of Afghanistan, ensuring security has been a significant challenge for the group. Unfortunately, terrorist attacks continue to occur in the country, resulting in the loss of innocent civilian lives.

The Taliban’s efforts to establish stability and security in Afghanistan have faced ongoing obstacles, and these attacks underline the difficulties they encounter in maintaining peace and order in the region.

An earlier Khaama Press article on the subject clarifies the location:

An explosion in western Kabul left two dead and fourteen wounded on Saturday evening. Khaled Zadran, the spokesperson for Kabul police, confirmed an explosion in the “Dasht-e Barchi” area of Kabul city. He stated that in this explosion, two people were killed, and fourteen others were injured.

Mr. Zadran did not specify the nature of this explosion but mentioned that it targeted a mini-bus vehicle.

Local sources report that this explosion occurred around 6:30 near Qala-e Nazar.

No individual or organization has claimed responsibility for the explosion.

Link

Afghanistan

Daily Evacuation Brief October 2 - 3, 2023

2023-10-03

[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS

TALIBAN INTELLIGENCE DEPARTMENT REPORTEDLY HACKED – According to several online anti-Taliban outlets, the General Directorate of Intelligence in the Ministry of the Interior has been hacked and a steady stream of documents is already being leaked online. One of the outlets on X (formerly Twitter), called @TalibLeaks began releasing some of the official-looking correspondence between Taliban agencies yesterday. The group says they have hundreds of communication documents and plans to begin circulating them on Telegram soon. A source in Kabul says the hack was extensive and the Minister for the Interior has directed the GDI to use ‘misinformation’ to attempt to control the damage that may be coming. The source said that some of the leaks include documents in both Pashto and Chinese that detail security discussions between Chinese advisors and the Ministry of the Interior. It is thought that these documents could be embarrassing to China. Some of the leaked documents put on display show a heavy reliance on written communication by GDI agents and there is speculation that the agency lacks personnel who are familiar with technology.

FORMER AFGHAN ARMY SPECIAL FORCES REPUTEDLY READY TO SUPPORT THE NATIONAL RESISTANCE FRONT – A video circulating on social media that has been attributed to the leadership of the remaining elements of the Afghan Special Forces under the Republic states that remnants of the organization have joined the NRF and will operate in Kandahar, Helmand, Ghazni, and Maidan Wardak. Estimates of the troop strength available in the country vary widely from a few hundred to well over one thousand. If this information is true, it represents a definite increase in the capabilities available to the NRF and likely a morale boost as well.

RECENTLY ANNOUNCED YOUTH PROGRAM WILL ONLY FOCUS ON MALES – A new program that is being bandied about by the Ministry of Information and Culture promises to ‘reform’ how the youth of Afghanistan can negotiate the difficult economic situation in the country. However, a source in Kabul says the program will only be offered to males and will primarily focus on orienting youth to approach their professional careers with an ‘Islamic mindset’. The man in charge of the program, Deputy Minister of Youth Mohammad Yunus Rashed reportedly has no record of academic or business experience. The source said the program is akin to the ‘religious training’ provided to Taliban military recruits which consumes roughly 80% of a Taliban recruit's basic training. Rashed has caged the program as a means of repairing the damage done to Afghanistan’s youth during the 19-year occupation by foreign troops.

CONFLICT TRACKER

Kunduz A relatively new resistance group, the Basij National Front, announced it has launched an ambush of a Taliban convoy in the Ali Abad district. The BNF claims to have killed 1 Tqliban fighter and wounded an additional 2 fighters in the action.

NEXT 24 HOURS

POSSIBLE TROUBLE BREWING IN BAMYAN – Several reports have surfaced that indicate the ‘nomads’ who have been resettled in the Province have continued to threaten the Hazara population and recently cut down several trees near a school in the Vers District and then threatened Hazara leaders who attempted to intervene with threats of violence. Previous clashes have been reported between Hazara communities and Kuchi tribesmen since mid-2022. The Taliban have intermittently intervened on both sides of these disputes and have sometimes found themselves being threatened by one side or the other. While no direct threat has been received in Bamyan, recent history dictates taking a cautious approach and at-risk Afghans residing in the District should take care to avoid potential hotspots between these groups.

Daily Evacuation Brief | October 2, 2023

[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS

DISSECTING THE TALIBAN FOREIGN MINISTER’S STATEMENT AT THE MOSCOW FORMAT – At the conclusion of the Moscow Format meeting, Minister of Foreign Affairs Muttaqi read out a statement to the attendees which attempted to address concerns that have continued to be raised about the de facto regime’s governance over 2022-23. The statement paints a very heroic picture of the Taliban’s quest to assume leadership of the country. Some of the criticisms leveled at the US and international community are completely valid but several of the claims he makes are questionable. While not absolving Russia from blame during the Soviet occupation, Muttaqi chose to focus on the last twenty years as the main culprit behind Afghanistan’s weakened state. It is important to note that many of the chief concerns voiced by other states in attendance at the meeting were not directly addressed. We felt it would be valuable to list the issues that Muttaqi specifically chose to bring up:

Security is Restored - This point has been debated by analysts and observers virtually from the day the Taliban took power. While the regime enjoyed a brief honeymoon period events over the last two years do not seem to indicate that citizens feel a sense of security. Likewise, neighbor states have never deviated from assertions that the security situation in Afghanistan is a major concern.

Open to Investment - This point is strongly related to the first, but we agree that the Taliban have attempted to foster an ‘investment friendly’ environment. Provided one is a male.

Eradicating the Drug Trade - While poppy cultivation has certainly been curtailed, it is not clear how effective the Taliban’s anti-narcotics operations have been. Neighboring states (Tajikistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, et al) have continued to intercept sizable drug shipments that were said to have emanated from within Afghanistan. A new report suggests that methamphetamine production has now supplanted opium and is being sent across borders in increasing quantities.

Foreign Engagement Increasing - Muttaqi claimed that political and diplomatic engagement has increased substantially over the previous two years. He emphasized that regional states have been instrumental in this regard. China’s appointment of a new ambassador was trotted out and held up as a model for other countries to follow. Muttaqi gives the impression that his Ministry is somehow responsible for achieving this ‘quasi’ recognition. However, the record clearly shows that most of the diplomatic engagement with neighbors and others has been prompted by crisis situations. The Taliban regime remains an outlier in the international community and clearly does not have a seat at the table among regional states.

Tourists, Journalists, Diplomats, and Aid Workers Freely Roam Afghanistan - This is another point that is hard to evaluate. There have been constant assertions from the Taliban that tourists have begun coming to the country in the tens of thousands but it is difficult to substantiate these claims. Most reports from those who have visited/worked in Afghanistan under the Taliban rule are not encouraging and suggest that very few are able to ‘roam freely’ in the country.

POLICE ROUND UP APPROXIMATELY 800 AFGHANS IN ISLAMABAD – In an unprecedented operation, Pakistani police began a major roundup of Afghan citizens in Islamabad that netted approximately 800 people. According to news reports, more than half of the Afghans who were brought in were determined to possess legal documentation and were allowed to go free. Roughly 370 lacked passports and were said to be marked for deportation. The police operations were reported in the following neighborhoods: Bahara Kahu, Tarlai, Meherabadaiyan, Golra, and Kalani Shams. There are conflicting reports from many of those who were arrested over what documents were checked to verify legal status in Pakistan. Most said that the possession of a valid passport was enough to gain their release. However, others said they had their visas scrutinized. We have confirmed that some of those picked up in the operation were released with expired visas and were told by police that new applications would need to be made or they could be deported. We are waiting for additional information from sources and contacts in Pakistan to determine if this activity will continue and for clarity on what Pakistani authorities are looking for with regard to ‘legal’ status.

MINISTER FOR HIGHER EDUCATION SAYS MEN AND WOMEN NOT EQUAL – During a conference at Baghlan University, the acting Minister, Neda Mohammad Nadim, said “A male is the ruler, he has the authority, he must be obeyed, and the woman must accept his word.” While the Minister has attempted to portray himself as a sometimes moderate, his words clearly enunciate the Deobandist school of thought so prevalent among the Taliban’s senior leadership ranks. Some leaders from the former regime used the Minister’s words to cast doubt on previous remarks that ‘a curriculum for female students’ was in development.

NEXT 24 HOURS

PAKISTAN ROUNDUPS – We are advising all at-risk Afghans in Pakistan to avoid going out of their residences for the next few days. It is not currently clear how long, or how widespread this new policy will be enforced. We encourage evacuating groups to maintain contact with their people in Afghanistan on a daily basis if at all possible. If one does have to leave a residence, they should make sure others know where they are going and carry their documents with them (digital photos at a minimum).

Link

Afghanistan

On eve of 9/11 Anniversary, U.S. officials continue to downplay Al Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan

2023-09-17

Long, detailed, and with a useful map. Herewith, the opening set-up:

[LongWarJournal] On the eve of the 22nd anniversary of Al Qaeda’s deadly attacks on New York and Washington, American intelligence officials further minimized the terror group’s safe haven in Afghanistan and its global reach. The U.S. intelligence community’s assessment that “Al Qaeda is at its historical nadir in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and its revival is unlikely” is directly at odds with intelligence gleaned by the United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, which recently reported that Al Qaeda is running training camps, safe houses, and a media operations center throughout Afghanistan.

The assessment of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan was briefed to reporters on Sept. 8 by two unnamed U.S. intelligence officials. In addition to Al Qaeda being at a “historical nadir,” its “ability to threaten the United States from Afghanistan or Pakistan is probably at its lowest point,” the officials claimed, according to CNN.

Oddly, the intelligence officials surmised that Al Qaeda is weak because the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan meant that Al Qaeda fighters no longer had a “proving ground” to battle U.S. forces.

Additionally, the intelligence officials claimed that Al Qaeda “was left without ‘leadership talent’ and “strategic guidance’” after the U.S. killed Al Qaeda emir Ayman al-Zawahiri in a drone strike at a Taliban safe house in Kabul in the summer of 2022, CNN reported.

The intelligence officials dismissed the UN Monitoring Team’s report as “an outlier within the UN system” and “‘wildly out of whack’ with intelligence collected by the US and its partners,” CNN noted.

However, the UN Monitoring Team’s report closely tracks with information on Al Qaeda’s historical and recent operations in Afghanistan that has been gathered by FDD’s Long War Journal.

A HISTORICAL NADIR?
The unnamed intelligence officials were incredibly dismissive of the Monitoring Team’s report, which was released in early June. According to the Monitoring Team, the Al Qaeda camps are located in six Afghan provinces: Helmand, Zabul, Badghis, Nangarhar, Nuristan, and Kunar. Additionally, the Monitoring Team noted that Al Qaeda has established “safe houses” in Farah, Helmand, Herat and Kabul, and opened a media operations center in Herat.

Despite the assertions of the U.S. intelligence officials Al Qaeda was known to have a significant presence in the provinces of Helmand, Farah, Zabul, Kunar, Nuristan, and Nangarhar prior to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. There is no indication that Al Qaeda abandoned these provinces with post-U.S. withdrawal. As the Monitoring Team has noted and FDD’s Long War Journal has independently assessed, the Taliban-Al Qaeda relationship remains strong.

Link

Afghanistan

Daily Evacuation Brief September 11, 2023

2023-09-11

[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS

TORKHAM REMAINED CLOSED FOR 5TH DAY – Trade groups from both countries expressed frustration over the continued closure of the commercial crossing. Talks reportedly continued on Sunday but Pakistan has dug its heels in over a call on Kabul to tackle the TTP terror problem. The Taliban continue to claim the TTP does not operate from within Afghanistan. Traders estimate that at least $1M has been lost due to the closure. Some in Kabul have speculated that an agreement to reopen the gate could be announced today.

SECOND MAJOR ENGAGEMENT IN CHITRAL REPORTED – Possibly lending credence to TTP claims that it had occupied select population centers in the disputed area, Pakistani military personnel claim to have engaged TTP forces in the Ursoon area. 6 TTP fighters were reportedly killed and 6 others were wounded in the clashes. A source in Rawalpindi said that Pakistan has dispatched several hundred reinforcements to the area and is working to target remnants of the large TTP force that initiated the incursion last Wednesday. The area is considered extremely dangerous to travelers and Pakistani military and police were turning vehicles back along the main roadways leading into Ursoon and Chitral.

TTP LEADERS FEAR A BETRAYAL BY KABUL/KANDAHAR – A source in Khost said that a recent meeting occurred in Paktia Province of senior TTP leaders and that the discussions were focused on possible courses of action the terror group could take should Kabul launch counter-terrorism operations against their members in Eastern Afghanistan. One of the senior leaders, referred to as ‘Commander Green’, complained that the TTP should never have allowed some of its members to be resettled to Balkh and other Northern Provinces from their strongholds along the Durand Line. ‘Commander Green’ also complained that the line of communications to Haqqani (presumably, the Minister of the Interior) had been compromised and that Pakistani intelligence services were eavesdropping on conversations. The source said that the recent actions in Chitral appear to have been an attempt to establish a new base of operations on the Pakistani side of the border and take pressure off Kabul. However, they did not expect such a strong response from the Pakistani military. Apparently, local leaders and communities were not as welcoming as TTP leaders had hoped. This information has not been confirmed.

CONFLICT TRACKER

Helmand: A suicide bomber reportedly attempted to target a Taliban security checkpoint in the Gereshk district, but was unable to approach the location. He entered a shop and detonated his device on Sunday morning. 1 non-combatant was killed and the suicide bomber also died in the alleged incident. It is nor clear which group was responsible for the attack.

NEXT 24 HOURS

CHRISTIAN CHURCHES IN KARACHI PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE TERRORIST THREATS – Police in Karachi are warning Christian churches and facilities of potential terror threats. Police officials visited several of the facilities and compiled a list of recommendations that Christian leaders should take to safeguard their property and personnel. It was not immediately clear if the warnings were related to an immediate threat or, were simply proactive precautions in the wake of the riots that took place recently in other parts of the country. Regardless of the motives, the Police in Karachi appear to be taking threats to Christian minorities seriously. At-risk Afghans in Karachi would be wise to avoid these locations in the near term.

Link

Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

The West is draining Ukraine according to the Afghan scenario

2023-08-29

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

by Victoria Nikiforova

Far from idealizing the Russian army, the Reuters agency described the successful advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the north-east of Ukraine almost in the style of Levitan: "A large contingent of Russian armed forces is advancing in the area of Kupyansk and Liman <...>."
Almost simultaneously, the New York Times quoted the commander of the Nezalezhnaya ground forces, Alexander Syrsky , in its material, who admitted that "enemy units continue to inflict damage with artillery, mortars and aircraft" and demanded to urgently strengthen the defenses of the northeast.

I must say that from the Syrsky side, this is practically a riot, because the Pentagon's cunning plan was to pull all the proxy Cossacks to the southeast and try to break through to the Sea of \u200b\u200bAzov . In the Pentagon, either on purpose or through thoughtlessness, they did not notice that such a maneuver would expose the northeastern sector of the thousand-kilometer front, opening up the widest field of opportunities for the Russian army.

This, in fact, happened, and now a graduate of the Moscow Combined Arms Command School, Syrsky, can complain to the American masters as much as he likes and blame them for their strategic mistakes. There, his claims will be met with cold bewilderment.

It is striking how much the tone of the American media has changed when reporting on the retreat of Ukrainian troops. A year ago, each such communiqué was accompanied by calls to give shells to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and to attack the Russians together. Today there is no such rhetoric at all.

The successes of the Russian troops and the defeat of the Ukrainian ones are dryly stated, the evacuation of the Kupyansky region is noted and there are no “defend Ukraine!”, “We unite around Ukraine!”. The States are merging the Independent in their classic style. More recently, by historical standards, they closed the Afghan case in the same way.

Many coincidences of these stories are striking in their literalness. For example, no one remembers anymore, but the US withdrawal from Afghanistan also took place against the backdrop of a "counterattack." Yes, yes, in October 2020, American proxies went on a "counteroffensive" against the Taliban in the south of the country in the province of Helmand. They even achieved some success, taking as many as five roadblocks. However, the Americans still continued to withdraw their troops, and already in May 2021, the Taliban went on the offensive, ending with the capture of Kabul and the infamous landing gear flights.

In the course of these offensives, retreats and counter-offensives, it quickly became clear that training to NATO standards did not help the Afghan troops in the least. That corruption was going through the roof and while some were dying, others were stealing like crazy. That the American command made all the mistakes that it could, as if on purpose not letting the army drilled by them win and achieving maximum losses on both sides of the front: what was the cost of at least their idea to force the Afghan military to defend only cities, while completely unblocking all the country's highways and freeing them for the Taliban.

In general, everyone blamed each other. In fact, there was only one mistake. Many Afghans believed that Washington was harnessing for them seriously and forever, that the American occupiers would bring them civilization and prosperity. But the invaders did not need it. They needed the Afghans to kill the Afghans - as many as possible and for as long as possible.

In parallel, of course, all sorts of business topics were spinning, one sale of drugs brought in how much money. However, the essence was different: to ruin the country and force the population to mutual extermination. Numerous "mistakes" by American commanders are explained precisely by this - in fact, for them there was no difference between the troops they created and the Taliban.

Well, when it was necessary to switch to a new - Ukrainian - theater of operations, the Americans quickly hit the road across the ocean. The servicemen of the Afghan army fled in all directions, most of them settled in Iran and today live there in poverty, cursing their stupidity.

The flag was lowered at half-mast at the Capitol the other day in mourning for the thirteen American servicemen who died during an enchanting drape from Kabul. Representatives of the American regime uttered the appropriate words on such an occasion. But no one in America has remembered—and will never remember—the hundreds of thousands of Afghan fighters and civilians who died in twenty years of bloody occupation.

Washington planned to turn Ukraine into a second Afghanistan for Russia. Achieve our defeat and surrender of territories, cause indignation in our society, and then - the collapse of the country according to the scenario of the collapse of the USSR . But today everything speaks for the fact that the Independent will become the second Afghanistan for the United States. This is evidenced by the successes of our troops, and domestic scandals around corruption schemes in Ukraine, and the changing rhetoric of the Western media before our eyes.

The experience of countless US wars shows that they chase their proxies like guinea pigs through the same maze. So far, not a single rat has found a way out of it. It is sincerely a pity that this time millions of ordinary Ukrainians allowed themselves to be driven into a trap.

Link

Afghanistan

Is the Taliban getting hooked on fentanyl?

2023-08-27

[TheNewEuropean] In April 2022, the Taliban
Taliban

...Arabic for students...
’s supreme leader, Haibatullah Arkhunzada, announced a ban on the production of drugs, which have earned the terrorist-led group billions of dollars and financed their ultimately successful 20-year war to overthrow Afghanistan’s western-backed government. During that time, the Taliban cornered the global market for heroin and transitioned into methamphetamine, which they also export worldwide.

The ban has reportedly led to a drastic reduction across Afghanistan in the planting of poppy flowers, which produce opium, the raw material for heroin. Satellite imagery is also said to show that many centres of meth production have fallen quiet. Local sources in the major growing regions in Helmand

Link

Afghanistan

Taliban's Massively Successful Opium Eradication Raises Questions About What US Was Doing All Along

2023-08-13

[ZERO] The Taliban government in Afghanistan — the nation that until recently produced 90% of the world’s heroin — has drastically reduced opium cultivation across the country. Western sources estimate an up to 99% reduction in some provinces. This raises serious questions about the seriousness of U.S. drug eradication efforts in the country over the past 20 years. And, as global heroin supplies dry up, experts tell MintPress News that they fear this could spark the growing use of fentanyl — a drug dozens of times stronger than heroin that already kills more than 100,000 Americans yearly.

THE TALIBAN DOES WHAT THE US DID NOT
It has already been called "the most successful counter-narcotics effort in human history." Armed with little more than sticks, teams of counter-narcotics brigades travel the country, cutting down Afghanistan’s poppy fields.

In April of last year, the ruling Taliban government announced the prohibition of poppy farming, citing both their strong religious beliefs and the extremely harmful social costs that heroin and other opioids — derived from the sap of the poppy plant — have wrought across Afghanistan.

It has not been all bluster. New research from geospatial data company Alcis suggests that poppy production has already plummeted by around 80% since last year. Indeed, satellite imagery shows that in Helmand Province, the area that produces more than half of the crop, poppy production has dropped by a staggering 99%. Just 12 months ago, poppy fields were dominant. But Alcis estimates that there are now less than 1,000 hectares of poppy growing in Helmand.

Instead, farmers are planting wheat, helping stave off the worst of a famine that U.S. sanctions helped create. Afghanistan is still in a perilous state, however, with the United Nations warning that six million people are close to starvation.

Link

Afghanistan

Daily Evacuation Brief August 9, 2023

2023-08-09

[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS

RELEASE OF US REPORT ON AFGHANISTAN PAINTS A BLEAK PICTURE OF THE CENTRAL BANK – The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) delivered the quarterly report to the US Congress yesterday and one of its major findings was that major issues remain in the leadership and functioning of the Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB). Basically, there were not sufficient safeguards/controls in place to ensure the DAB could not be used to launder money and there are signs the bank does not operate free and clear from political influence. The report is important because it plays a central role in the question of the possible return of over $3bn of frozen funds that sits in a Swiss-based trust.

IRANIAN DELEGATION WRAPS UP VISIT TO AFGHANISTAN OVER WATER RIGHTS – Very little information was provided to the public after the 11 Iranian analysts/negotiators concluded their assessment visit to the country. A source in Kabul opined that the discussions over diverted water from the Helmand River became heated at times and the Iranian delegation had Russian satellite imagery in their possession to use as leverage during the talks. The source went on to say that the Iranian team warned that it could not be held responsible for possible actions taken by residents in its Southern Provinces should drout conditions continue. The Iranian Foreign Ministry refused to comment on details of the discussions when pressed by members of the Iranian press.

PAKISTAN’S HUMAN RIGHTS MINISTER SAYS THE IEA IS NOT SUPPORTING TERROR ATTACKS IN PAKISTAN – Minister Riaz Pirzada broke with others in the government and stated the Afghan Taliban are not actively supporting the TTP, but did say that some of the attacks had taken place without their knowledge. The Minister did not go so far as to refute others in the regime and/or the Army but he flatly rejected the notion the IEA had a hand in the recent surge in terror attacks.

IRAN STRIKES A NEW TONE WITH THE TALIBAN – For the first time, Iran has placed blame on the Taliban for the attack on Iranian diplomats that took place in Mazar-i-Sharif that killed 8 diplomatic personnel and 1 journalist. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, shared a social media post to commemorate the tragedy and laid the blame on the Taliban. Previous to this admission, Iran has blamed regional or international intelligence agencies for the attack. There are many theories as to why the shift has taken place with some blaming the water issue while others say that Tehran is suspicious the Taliban is actively cooperating with the US on counter-terrorism operations.

CONFLICT TRACKER
Nangarhar: 2 unidentified men tossed hand grenades into a house, killing 2 children and wounding 3 adults. It is not clear what prompted the attack or which group many have been involved.

NEXT 24 HOURS
PAKISTAN TO DISSOLVE ASSEMBLIES – While no threats have currently been reported, it is important to note that both Khan’s arrest and the expected announcement that elections will be delayed could push the PTI party faithful to launch demonstrations. The crackdown on Afghan refugees in Pakistan appears to be continuing as 6 more were detained in Karachi and an unknown number had been rounded up in Islamabad. At-risk Afghans sheltering in Pakistan are urged to avoid any potential flashpoints between demonstrators and police.

Link

Warning: Undefined property: stdClass::$T in /data/rantburg.com/www/pgrecentorg.php on line 132
-12 More