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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Hamas PM Ismail Haniyeh runs to El Arish, leaves peasants to fight
2012-11-18
Israel launches fresh, major air-sea attack in Gaza after Hamas spurns ceasefire

[DEBKAfile] Israeli air and naval forces launched heavy assaults in Gaza before dawn Sunday, Nov. 18 -- Day 5 of the IDF's Gaza operation - after daylong bargaining Saturday among Washington, Jerusalem, Cairo and Gaza, failed to produce an Israel-Hamas truce accord. When Egyptian and Turkish middlemen suggested a ceasefire was close, Israel accused them of pushing Hamas's terms which were fashioned to present the Palestinian radicals as the victor in the contest. The trio leading the Israeli war, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, countered by intensifying the IDF's Gaza offensive -- though not as yet sending ground troops in.

A Western source said it would take some days to determine if a ceasefire was feasible.
And in the meantime Israel will continue hitting Gaza targets, by way of encouragement and clearing the decks for the next stage of things -- probably Hizb'allah, though that lot are staying very, very quiet in the hope of not being noticed again.
Egyptian intelligence meanwhile smuggled Hamas Prime Minister Islmail Haniyeh out of Gaza and over to El Arish in northern Sinai in the convoy of visiting Tunisian Foreign Minister Rafiq Abdessalem when he departed Gaza Saturday, debkafile reports.
Was he wearing a burqa? That's the usual costume for such adventures.
Friday night, Israel bombers struck government headquarters in Gaza City.

Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi decided that Haniyeh must be continuously available at the end of a phone to lead the Hamas side in the ceasefire negotiations. This was not possible so long as the Hamas prime minister remained in Gaza. All of Hamas leaders have gone to ground for fear of targeted assassination by Israel. They have switched off their phones and electronic communications to avoid giving away their locations to Israeli surveillance. Haniyeh was even afraid to communicate with Cairo through the Egyptian military mission in Gaza.
They see you when you're sleeping,
They know when you're awake,
They know if you've been bad or good...
In these circumstances, Morsi and Erdogan's were prevented from get their ceasefire mediation bid off the ground. Moving Haniyeh to El Arish put a Hamas negotiator in place to lead the give-and-take for a truce. Our sources have not discovered if he is still there or has moved back to Gaza.

The Turkish prime minister brought a secret passenger in the plane bringing him to Cairo Saturday. He is Saleh Aruri, formerly of the Hamas military wing. Aruri had spent 15 years in an Israeli prison for terrorism and murder until he was released on Oct. 18, 2011 in the prisoner exchange for the Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit on condition he went into exile.

Turkey granted him asylum and its intelligence agency MIT gave him free rein to set up an operational command in Istanbul for Hamas terrorist networks on the West Bank.

On arrival in Cairo, the Turkish prime minister put Aruri in charge of the contacts with Haniyeh.

At a news conference in Cairo Saturday night, the Egyptian president and Turkish prime minister reported "some indications that there could be a ceasefire soon" although "there were still no guarantees."

The guarantees issue has become a pivotal bargaining point.

Israel, backed by the United States, insists that a ceasefire be signed between the US, Egypt, Turkey and Israel, and exclude Hamas, which would be bound by a separate agreement with Cairo.

Netanyahu, Barak and Lieberman are asking the United States to act as guarantor for a ceasefire. Erdogan has countered by inviting Russian President Vladimir Putin to join US President Barack Obama as victor.

Hamas has rejected all of Israel's terms.

During the night, Israel denied reports circulating in Cairo that an Israeli negotiator was heading for the Egyptian capital to get down to the specifics of an emerging truce deal. The three Israeli war leaders decided not to fall into the trap laid by Morsi and Erdogan. Instead, they told the IDF to press ahead with the operation until its objectives were attained -- hence the launching of a fresh air and sea assault before daybreak Sunday.

OC Southern Command, Maj. Gen. Tal Rousso defined those objectives to reporters Saturday night as "eliminating the war arsenals of Hamas and terrorist organizations and restoring peace and normality to the population of southern Israel."

The ground operation is meanwhile delayed, in accordance with Netanyahu's promise to President Obama in their conversation early Saturday, that a full-scale ground invasion would not go forward so long as there was a chance of a ceasefire - unless there was escalation from Hamas or a strike that caused significant casualties.

A western source in Cairo familiar with the truce negotiations reported that Obama has not yet decided whether he wants to be directly involved in any ceasefire deal, which in any case has not reached the concluding stage. "The cake dough is still being kneaded and not yet ready to for the oven," he said.
A deep and profound statement, to be sure.
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Egypt veers to most radical Palestinian anti-Israel stance
2008-11-03
Worth keeping in mind that Al Qaeda sprang from the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, which has provided its most rabid theorists.
The relevant provision in the National Palestinian Accord drafted by Egyptian intelligence minister Gen. Omar Suleiman enshrines the Palestinians’ “legitimate right to resistance [euphemism for terror] for as long as “the occupation” is sustained, DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources disclose.

The draft was drawn up as part of the Mubarak government’s effort to broker the reconciliation of the Palestinian Hamas and Fatah. Egypt backed the most radical Palestinian line to make the draft palatable to Hamas. Israeli security sources say it is the most anti-Israeli document penned in many years.

In another step to make the running with Palestinian extremists, the four-page text endorses the 1948 refugees return to “their places before they were uprooted.” This demand has been internationally accepted as a prescription for Israel’s destruction.

Suleiman moreover omitted the conventional proposition that a Palestinian state must spring from a peace accord with Israel. In fact, Israel is not mentioned at all, as through it has no existence in any diplomatic or regional context.

Ignoring the radical winds blowing from Egypt, Israeli president Shimon Peres and defense minister Ehud Barak persist in clinging to the “moderate” camp led by the Mubarak regime as a valued go-between with the Palestinians. They are both now actively promoting the Saudi peace plan backed by Egypt and adopted at the Arab League 2002 summit.

When he visited Mubarak at Sharm el-Sheikh on Oct. 23, Peres faced a blank wall when he offered fresh Israeli diplomatic initiatives. His appeal for help in releasing the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit was equally snubbed. The Egyptian leader made it clear that patching up the quarrel among warring Palestinian factions was his sole concern, and so Peres came away from the encounter empty-handed.

Barak has also found it convenient to forget that Israel agreed last June to an informal six-month truce with Hamas after Cairo pledged every possible effort to obtain the soldier’s quick release. Since then, the Egyptians have not lifted a finger.

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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Al Qaeda-Paleoland demands for BBC’s Alan Johnston
2007-05-05
Debka, so salt and 48-hour rule in place. It sounds plausible tho.
DEBKAfile Exclusive: al-Qaeda-Palestine demands for BBC’s Alan Johnston $5 m cash, 10 Muslim terror conspirators jailed in Britain, an al Qaeda woman bomber.
For $5 million bucks, they can buy their own damn ponies.
The bomber on the list of demands for the release of the BBC reporter kidnapped 53 days ago is Sajida Mubarak al-Rishawi, the female would-be suicide bomber held in Jordan after her explosive vest failed to detonate in al Qaeda’s attacks on Amman hotels Nov. 9, 2005. Sixty people were killed, 115 injured in that coordinated round of bombings. Most of the Muslim terrorists demanded of Britain are of Pakistani origin.

It is the first time that a Palestinian group has held out for the release of terrorists jailed in countries other than Israel. DEBKAfile’s military sources report that conditions in Gaza have become so hazardous that Egyptian intelligence minister Gen. Omar Suleiman has quietly asked the Israeli prime minister and defense minister for permission to deploy two Egyptian military companies in Gaza City to protect the Egyptian embassy and military mission. This is an extreme measure. Granting the request would bring Egyptian troops back to the Gaza Strip for the first time since 1967. For the moment, Israel’s leaders have been too busy fending off war criticism to deal with it.

The generals of the Egyptian military mission handle the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas and Fatah factions, including the elements holding the Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit who was kidnapped eleven months ago. The Egyptian officers spend their nights in Israeli hotels in Ashkelon or Tel Aviv as it is too risky to sleep in Gaza. Suleiman wants to make sure they are not ambushed and kidnapped on the road.

That the al Qaeda-Hamas kidnappers are not afraid to come out in the open and identify themselves as the abductors of Johnston and Shalit further bespeaks the breakdown of authority in the Gaza Strip. DEBKAfile’s military sources note that no one seems capable of arresting the plunge, neither the Palestinian government, the Israelis, the Egyptians, the Americans, the British or the Europeans, even though the last four maintain a presence in the chaotic Palestinian territory
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Fatah-Hamas clashes in Gaza mar Palestinian unity
2007-03-15
In the 24-line-up, Hamas gets 9 cabinet posts, Fatah six. The other portfolios are shared out among “independents” and smaller factions. DEBKAfile notes: One putative “independent,” the designated foreign minister Ziyad Amar, is a known Hamas adherent. Pro-American Salam Fayed is retained as finance minister as bait to draw US recognition and international assistance.

Israel has announced it will boycott all the new ministers, including the new Fatah office-holders. The Olmert government faults Mahmoud Abbas for accepting a power-sharing accord dominated by Hamas, whose platform continues to deny Israel recognition and refuses to terminate violence. Abbas also reneged on his promise to get the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit released before forming a unity administration.

DEBKAfile reports that Abbas and Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniyeh (who retains the post) worked against the stopwatch to get their Saudi-brokered unity act together in time for the Riyadh Arab summit on March 28.

The fragility of their deal was apparent on the day of its signing: Wednesday, March 14, internecine gunfights were sparked by the assassination of Hamas’ Gaza commander Ala Haddad in a hail of bullets by the Muhammad Dahlan’s Fatah death squads. Whereas Haddad had been targeted for months by Fatah, now the chief of those death squads, a professional terminator called Samir Madhoun, became the quarry of Hamas’ special executive arm. Nine people were injured, including three bystanders, in the ensuing shoot-outs. The air rang with gunfire as Abbas and Haniyeh shook hands in Gaza City.

The cynical performance proceeded with Abbas pledging to deliver European recognition and aid funds to the new government, and Haniyeh vowing to end Palestinian government reliance on Iran - if Abbas delivered. Both promises were hollow, as they both knew, just as the framework they contrived changes very little. The kidnapped BBC reporter Alan Johnston and the Israeli soldier remain in the hands of a band of captors that includes al Qaeda-Gaza, Hamas continues to take delivery of missiles and other war materiel and build its fortified bunkers.

If anything, Abbas lost points; any agreements or deals he may conclude with Israel will be subject to ratification by the Palestinian national assembly which has a Hamas majority. But because the unity deal is in the bag, the Palestinians will be represented at the Arab summit this month by a Hamas prime minister.
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Al Qaeda-Gaza declares war on Hamas and Fatah
2007-03-13
I always did like a menage-a-trois. Funny, how it's Al Qaeda telling Fatah and Hamas who's wearing the strap-on. This will help their aid efforts. Give these folk a State.

Gentlemen, I liked an extra large Soda and Popcorn.As Palestinian and Israeli leaders, Mahmoud Abbas and Ehud Olmert finished discussing the Gaza Strip’s fate Sunday, March 11, three events showed how little they and Hamas are in control.

Al Qaeda’s No. 2, Ayman Zawahri issued a declaration of war on the Palestinian Authority and Hamas in a videotape aired by the Arabic TV Al Jazeera. An hour later, the Islamic Brotherhood of Justice (another name for al Qaeda’s operational branch in the Gaza Strip) announced the launching of its Operation White Land, targeting the political and military leaders of Fatah and Hamas.

DEBKAfile’s military sources also reveal that a rebellion has sprung up against the top Hamas leadership.

Olmert and Abbas nonetheless continue to act out a Pan-Arab diplomatic process at Washington’s behest (see separate item on this page), which has as much chance of getting off the ground in Gaza as Fatah’s Abbas’ assurance that the kidnapped Israeli soldier, Gilead Shalit, would be freed very soon.

The Zuwahri statement assailed the legitimacy Saudi Arabia extended to moves for a Palestinian unity government at the Mecca peace conference as recently as Feb. 8. Negotiations between the two factions are bogged down anyway. “The leadership of Hamas government has committed an aggression against the rights of the Islamic nation by respecting international agreements,” thundered Ayman Zawahri Sunday. “I am sorry to have to offer the Islamic nation my condolences for the Hamas leadership as it has fallen into the quagmire of surrender.”

The Gaza al Qaeda cell then defined the four missions of Operation White Land:
1. Targeting the most senior figures of the Palestinian Authority and Hamas leaders.

2. Focusing on group abductions rather than individuals, especially symbols of political corruption.

3. Beheading is ordained for members of these groups. Their executions and confessions will be videotaped and aired as they are in Iraq.

4. Blowing up Internet cafes and businesses selling alcohol; putting prostitutes to death to cleanse the streets of Gaza of prostitution.

Announcing these missions have won the sanction of Palestinian religious scholars, the communiqué ends with the words: “Operation White Land has begun.”

As for the revolt in Hamas, its Executive Force chief Jemal Jarah and his deputy, Yusouf a-Zahar (brother of Hamas foreign minister Mahmoud a-Zahar), accuse prime minister Ismail Haniyeh of being too soft with Abbas and Fatah and failing to follow through to victory on the battles they fought for weeks against Fatah. Determined to finish the job, Hamas rebels were back on the streets of Gaza this week, shooting and abducting their rivals, the Mecca Reconciliation Accords already a dead letter.

DEBKAfile adds: Shalit, who was abducted in June 2006 has become a counter in internecine Palestinian rivalries. He is guarded by two of the groups which kidnapped him, including members of al Qaeda. With the control of affairs in the Gaza Strip slipping out of the hands of prime minister Haniyeh, it is hard to see how any progress can be achieved towards gaining his freedom.
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
DEBKA: Saudis bring Meshaal to Jeddah to try and avert Palestinian civil war
2006-10-23
The Hamas politburo chief traveled from Damascus disguised as a pilgrim. Saudi rulers offered him and his movement generous terms for breaking away from the Damascus-Tehran bloc, freeing the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit and signing a cooperation pact with Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas.

The Saudis last week invited to Mecca the heads of the Syrian opposition in exile. This act is seen as Riyadh’s warning to Asad of dire consequences if he tries to disrupt this Palestinian reconciliation move.
In a back-up move, the Saudis last week invited to Mecca the heads of the Syrian opposition in exile: former Syrian vice president Khalim Haddam, today a sworn foe of Syrian president Bashar Asad, the leader of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood Sader e-Din Ali Bayanouni and Bashar’s uncle, Rifat Asad, who aspires to oust his nephew and take his place. This act is seen as Riyadh’s warning to Asad of dire consequences, including punitive financial measures, if he tries to disrupt this Palestinian reconciliation move. To demonstrate its importance to the oil kingdom, King Abdullah granted Meshaal a private audience.

DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources describe this as a direct Saudi challenge to Iran and its schemes - in contrast to the inertia displayed by the Egyptian, Jordanian and Israeli governments. The Hamas politburo chief is not generally expected to reject the Saudi proposition out of hand – certainly not the handsome remuneration on offer – but neither is Hamas inclined to turn its back on Syria and Iran, its principal suppliers of weapons and fighters.

On a single day, Sunday, Oct. 22, Fatah and Hamas staged 26 reciprocal assassination attempts of each other’s commanders in a further escalation of tension.
On a single day, Sunday, Oct. 22, Fatah and Hamas staged 26 reciprocal assassination attempts of each other’s commanders in a further escalation of tension. Fatah was horrified to see a Hamas parading 500 new recruits in the West Bank town of Qalqilya, a Fatah stronghold. DEBKAfile’s military sources comment that if Hamas was capable of lining up 500 armed recruits in a small Palestinian town on the West Bank which is surrounded on three sides by Israel’s defense barrier, it betokens a much larger Hamas militia numbering thousands ready to go – a nasty surprise for both Abu Mazen and Israel.
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
IDF Stitches Up Nablus Vestmaker
2006-08-31

Israeli soldiers shoot dead Fadi Kafisha, producer of bomb vests for Fatah suicide killers in Nablus Thursday. A second armed Palestinian who was with him was also killed in the incident.
In-f&cking-shallah, baby!
Palestinian sources report Raad Nahal, commander of the PRCs Salahadin Battalions in N. Gaza was shot dead by unidentified assailants. This group together with Hamas executed the kidnap of the Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit on June 25.
And the paybacks just keep on coming!
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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Iranian National Security Advisor in Damascus
2006-07-12
DEBKAfile reports: Iran’s national security adviser Ali Larijani flies to Damascus aboad special military plane Wednesday night as war tension builds up around Hizballah kidnap of 2 Israeli soldiers. Larijani is also Iran’s senior nuclear negotiator. He will remain in Damascus for the duration of the crisis in line with the recently Iranian-Syrian mutual defense pact. His presence affirms that an Israeli attack on Syria will be deemed an assault on Iran.
Kind of like a Austria-Hungary attack on Serbia was deemed an assault on Russia. And we all know how that worked out.
It also links the Israeli hostage crisis to Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West. The White House released a statement holding Syria and Iran responsible for Hizballah abduction and demanding their immediate and unconditional release.
So, we're playing the part of.....Germany? Better dust off the von Schlieffen Plan, Herr Rumsfeld
The Syrian army has been put on a state of preparedness.
And Belgium Lebanon is nervous.

DEBKAfile’s military sources add that the Iranian air force, missile units and navy are also on high alert.
Mobilization starts, trains begin to roll, I've seen this movie.

DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources report Hizballah acted on orders from Tehran to open a second front against Israel, partly to ease IDF military pressure on the Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This was in response to an appeal Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal made to the Iranian ambassador to Damascus Mohammad Hassan Akhtari Sunday, July 9.

DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources report Tehran’s rationale as composed of three parts:

1. Iran shows the flag as a champion and defender of its ally, Hamas.

2. Sending Hizballah to open a warfront against Israel is the logical tactical complement to its latest order to go into action against American and British forces in southern Iraq.

3. Tehran hopes to hijack the agenda before the G-8 summit opening in St. Petersberg, Russia on July 15. Instead of discussing Iran’s nuclear case and the situation in Iraq along the lines set by President George W. Bush, the leaders of the industrial nations will be forced to address the Middle East flare-up.
Following in the long tradition of starting a war to avoid solving a problem at home

Any Israeli decision taken at prime minister Ehud Olmert’s high level consultation in Jerusalem Wednesday night must take this turn of events into account before deciding on limited air strikes against Hizballah and Lebanese civil targets without delay.

Our sources also report that immediately after Nasrallah’s statement to the media, Hizballah’s leaders went into hiding, their bases were evacuated and their fighting strength transferred to pre-planned places of concealment. Ahead of the abduction, Hizballah ordnance and missile stocks were transferred to the Palestinian Ahmed Jibril’s tunnel system at Naama, 30 km south of Beirut, which was built in the 1980s by East German engineers.
Manning the Maginot Line, so to speak.
The Israel navy has long tried to smash this coastal underground fortress from the sea without success.

Israel began calling up an armored division, air crews and technicians from the reserves Wednesday night.
Can you say, Blitzkrieg?
DEBKAfile’s military experts: If Israel’s leaders opt for an anti-Hizballah operation on the lines of Operation Summer Rain against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the IDF can expect the same measure of success as it has had in recovering Gilead Shalit and ending the Qassam missiles barrage.
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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Iran’s national security adviser Ali Larijani in Damascas
2006-07-12
Debka, so salt away...

Larijani is also Iran’s senior nuclear negotiator. He will remain in Damascus for the duration of the crisis in line with the recently Iranian-Syrian mutual defense pact. His presence affirms that an Israeli attack on Syria will be deemed an assault on Iran. It also links the Israeli hostage crisis to Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West.

The White House released a statement holding Syria and Iran responsible for Hizballah abduction and demanding their immediate and unconditional release.

The Syrian army has been put on a state of preparedness.

DEBKAfile’s military sources add that the Iranian air force, missile units and navy are also on high alert.

DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources report Hizballah acted on orders from Tehran to open a second front against Israel, partly to ease IDF military pressure on the Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This was in response to an appeal Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal made to the Iranian ambassador to Damascus Mohammad Hassan Akhtari Sunday, July 9.

DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources report Tehran’s rationale as composed of three parts:

1. Iran shows the flag as a champion and defender of its ally, Hamas.

2. Sending Hizballah to open a warfront against Israel is the logical tactical complement to its latest order to go into action against American and British forces in southern Iraq.

3. Tehran hopes to hijack the agenda before the G-8 summit opening in St. Petersberg, Russia on July 15. Instead of discussing Iran’s nuclear case and the situation in Iraq along the lines set by President George W. Bush, the leaders of the industrial nations will be forced to address the Middle East flare-up

Any Israeli decision taken at prime minister Ehud Olmert’s high level consultation in Jerusalem Wednesday night must take this turn of events into account before deciding on limited air strikes against Hizballah and Lebanese civil targets without delay.

Our sources also report that immediately after Nasrallah’s statement to the media, Hizballah’s leaders went into hiding, their bases were evacuated and their fighting strength transferred to pre-planned places of concealment. Ahead of the abduction, Hizballah ordnance and missile stocks were transferred to the Palestinian Ahmed Jibril’s tunnel system at Naama, 30 km south of Beirut, which was built in the 1980s by East German engineers.

The Israel navy has long tried to smash this coastal underground fortress from the sea without success.

Israel began calling up an armored division, air crews and technicians from the reserves Wednesday night. DEBKAfile’s military experts: If Israel’s leaders opt for an anti-Hizballah operation on the lines of Operation Summer Rain against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the IDF can expect the same measure of success as it has had in recovering Gilead Shalit and ending the Qassam missiles barrage
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Israeli security cabinet dampens military response
2006-07-05
DEBKA is pissed
Israeli security cabinet dampens military response to Hamas missile offensive which climaxed in Ashkelon Tuesday. The decisions reached by the security cabinet presided over by Ehud Olmert Wednesday, July 5, in the aftershocks of a Palestinian missile exploding at a school in the Ashkelon town center and the abduction of a soldier, boil down to nothing much in the way of concrete action.

A brief lexicon is in order here.

Following the cabinet meeting, Olmert and defense minister Amir Peretz continued to discuss with IDF and defense officials more detailed operational plans – meaning, the cabinet approved no operational plans, but rather the outer limits of such plans.

The operation will be broadened to target “institutions and infrastructure facilitating terrorism.” The Israeli air force has long been bombing vacant land and empty buildings to little effect. No change is indicated and no takeover of Palestinian territory.

The IDF’s operation will be prolonged and incremental – meaning nothing is changed from the current activity.

The IDF will broaden its operations to reduce Qassam fire. Israel will consider creating a buffer zone in northern Gaza to block Qassam missile fire against Ashkelon and Sderot. Here too there is no departure from the present tactics – certainly no commitment to deepen the Israeli incursion. If those tactics did not work before, why expect them to work now?

“We must prepare to change the rules of the game” in our dealings with the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, based on the parameters presented by the defense establishment.” No one seriously pretends this was anything more than another “media slogan.”

It is no secret that Israel’s Operation Summer Rain has involved no serious counter-terror combat in the eight days since the first Israeli troops entered the southern Gaza Strip on the heels of the Hamas-led assault inside Israel that left two soldiers dead and a third, Corp. Gilead Shalit kidnapped,.

This make-believe offensive has had several consequences:

1. Gideon Shalit is now out of reach unless the IDF can stage a surprise rescue assault to free him. This option was allowed to float over the heads of the cabinet ministers Wednesday, but nothing specific was said.

2. Hamas is stepping up its efforts to kidnap Israelis – servicemen and civilians.

3. Missiles continue to rain down on Sderot, the western Negev villages, Ashkelon and Netivot. Hamas and its allied terrorist groups will persist in their effort to achieve Israeli casualties.

4. The Palestinians are in the midst of a new terror offensive from the West Bank aimed at bringing suicide bombers into Israeli towns for civilian massacres. There were several foiled attempts this week. In Jenin, Israeli troops defused two large car bombs destined for a central Israeli city, followed by the interception of a Palestinian wearing a bomb vest on his way to an industrial zone north of Tel Aviv.

5. Hizballah and Palestinian terrorist groups based in Lebanon will be encouraged to launch attacks on northern Israel in support of Hamas.

Israel’s sluggish and ineffectual responses to Hamas aggression coincide with the test-firing of seven ballistic missiles by North Korea, one capable of reaching the American mainland, in the face of Washington’s threats to shoot them down.

After the US national security adviser Stephen Hadley said on Tuesday that the launch of 6 missiles by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) posed no apparent threat to U.S. territory as “a missile that fails after 40 seconds is not a threat to the United States,” Pyongyang followed up Wednesday with a seventh missile.

Tehran is displaying the same defiance to Washington and the West. After weeks of Iranian procrastination, the big powers demanded a reply to their proposed incentives for Iran to halt uranium enrichment by July 12, but the Iranians are leaving them to cool their heels until late August.

Other powers, including Russia, are taking advantage of the Bush administration’s perceived immobilization by the Iraq imbroglio to pursue their own interests. In other times, Israeli prime ministers David Ben Gurion and Menahem Begin used similar periods for stunning military operations to extricate the country from extreme peril. Failing bold action against escalating Palestinian terror initiatives, Israel will continue to fall back in the face of this spiraling threat.
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
DEBKA: Cairo admits talks have failed; Hamas preparing for all-out war
2006-07-01
The ball landed squarely in the Israeli court Saturday night, July 1, after Cairo admitted its bid to negotiate an end to the Gideon Shalit hostage crisis had ended in fiasco six days after his capture. The IDF, whose armored forces are standing 3 km inside the southern Gaza Strip since Wednesday, June 28, and camped on the fringes of its northern sector, are awaiting their next orders. It is up to prime minister Ehud Olmert to tell the troops how to complete their incursion of the territory and approach their confrontation with Hamas.

He is holding emergency conferences with security and military chiefs Saturday night on whether to approach the inevitable clash at once, or in stages; incrementally, or by a blitz operation entailing the reoccupation of all or most of the Gaza Strip.

Casualties on both sides are unavoidable.

Hamas is gearing up for action. Seven Fatah-al Aqsa Brigades factions have rallied to Hamas and are pledged to fight – not with RPGs or roadside bombs but by hurling themselves bodily against incoming Israeli tanks as martyrs.

The signal for war came Saturday night from Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas. He was urged by the Egyptians to state that diplomacy had run out of steam in the absence of a Hamas partner for dialogue on the fate of Gideon Shalit.

DEBKAfile’s sources disclose that Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and his aides derailed their own mediation effort out of hubris, while Mahmoud Abbas is picking up the pieces in the hope of maneuvering Israel into doing his dirty work and toppling the Hamas regime.

In an interview Friday, June 30, to the Cairo daily al Ahram, Hosni Mubarak boasted he had brokered a deal with Hamas leaders on terms for the Israeli hostage’s release, but accused Israel of rejecting them. This was the reverse of the real situation. Mubarak had no clearance from Hamas before he went public, but Olmert was willing to listen. Egypt’s intelligence chief Omar Suleiman was supposed to travel to Jerusalem Saturday, July 1, to present the deal in detail.

DEBKAfile disclosed those terms that same day:

1. Gilead Shalit will be freed and handed to the IDF.

2. Israel will then pull its troops back from the Gaza Strip.

3. The 87 Hamas leaders Israel detained on the West Bank last Thursday, June 29, will be released.

4. Olmert will give Mubarak his personal guarantee to free groups of Palestinian prisoners at a suitable future opportunity as a gesture of goodwill.

After reading Mubarak’s al Ahram interview, Hamas leaders in Damascus and Gaza blew up. The Damascus-based Hamas leader, Khaled Meshaal, ordered the special emissary he sent to Cairo last week (as reported earlier by DEBKAfile) to notify the Egyptian president that Hamas utterly disowns his proposals for a hostage deal.

The Israeli corporal’s captors, a coalition of three terrorist groups, thereupon posted their new demand for the release of another 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, on top of the 450 demanded earlier. There was no offer to free Gilead Shalit. This reverse thoroughly confused the situation as presented in the media.

Olmert and Mubarak then found out from their intelligence agencies that Hamas had not let the grass grow under its feet. Taking advantage of the time gained by the hold-up in Israel’s advance into Gaza and Egypt’s mediation bid, Hamas used last week to recruit the seven armed Fatah suicide squads in the Gaza Strip and build a new alliance called “The National General Command of Asifa Palestine.”

The new grouping passed two resolutions.

1. Its members no longer recognize Mahmoud Abbas’s authority.

2. A concerted effort by all the allied factions will be mounted to fight Israeli forces if they deepen their incursion of the Gaza Strip.

Saturday night, July 1, the NGCAP announced its principle weapon would be suicide fighters. Israel military sources believe Fatah will have no difficulty in rounding up large numbers of recruits for a mass suicide assault.

In an effort to save his face, the Egyptian president made Abbas publicly state that night that the failure of Cairo’s mediation bid to free the Israeli hostage was not the fault of Egypt or Israel, but the lack of a responsible Hamas party to address.

DEBKAfile’s Palestinian sources report that Abu Mazen has calculated cynically that Olmert is in a fix: he can hardly keep on dragging out Operation Summer Rain any longer, and he will end up destroying the Hamas government on behalf of the Palestinian leader. This will not of course prevent Abbas from calling on the world to intervene and rescue the innocent Palestinian people from the Israeli armed forces.

Our political sources note that Israel’s leaders fell into the disastrous error of putting their trust in the Egyptian ruler instead of entrusting the IDF with a swift, comprehensive offensive to vanquish Hamas. The result of their dilly-dallying is that Israel is being dragged against its will into a far broader and more costly conflict whose outcome is incalculable against an enemy which has used the time gained to prepare for the fray.

Saturday too the Lebanese Hizballah placed its forces on the ready. Hassan Nasrallah, the terrorist group’s leader, explained that when the IDF attacks Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Palestinian organizations in Lebanon will be set loose against Israel’s northern border.

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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Debka: deadlocked dispute between prime minister Olmert and defense minister Peretz
2006-06-30
The armored forces and tanks which rolled into southern Gaza Tuesday night have been stationary for 24 hours, only directing desultory artillery fire at empty ground in the north. Amir Peretz is blocking a swift and expeditious offensive urged by the prime minister’ Ehud Olmert and the IDF high command to rescue Gilead Shalit, the Israeli corporal kidnapped by Hamas Sunday, June 25, and eradicate the Qassam missile infrastructure.

Yet the prime minister is hesitating to pull rank and pass orders to the army over the defense minister’s head, Peretz is clinging to a policy of “restraint and diplomacy,” despite the complete breakdown of mediated negotiations in the early hours of the abduction. The prime minister’s office and general command report that no serious diplomatic bid to negotiate the soldier’s release has been floated for 48 hours. None of the intermediaries report progress, even the live wire, Egyptian intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman.

PMO officials and top commanders are furious with the defense minister and take strong exception to his assertion Thursday: “We stand at one of the most significant moments for setting new game rules between us and terrorist elements in the Palestinian Authority.” Terrorism is not a game, they say.

Frustration with the defense minister was sensed in the speech delivered by the army chief Lt. Gen Dan Halutz at the passing out ceremony of fighter pilots. “Israeli citizens must never be hostages to rockets and the kidnappings of civilians and soldiers,” he said. “We dare not wait for casualties to justify a defensive operation. When someone wants to kill you, you must kill him first.”
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