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Recent Appearances... Rantburg

Afghanistan
'America is not retreating' from Afghanistan
2012-07-09
More than 3,070 NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A cautionary tale of cost-benefit analysis....
and ISAF deaths have been reported in Afghanistan since 2001 - 223 in 2012 alone - and there are no signs that the violence against western troops will end soon.

The attacks on Kabul's Intercontinental Hotel and the US Embassy, the liquidation of former Afghanistan's Caped President Burhanuddin Rabbani
... the gentlemanly murdered legitimate president of Afghanistan...
last year while he served as a peace envoy to the Taliban, and more recently, murder of a Non-Governmental Organization worker in the capital, show that the assaults are getting bolder.

"The issue is, how will Afghanistan be managed post withdrawal? Where will the money come from? And will the Taliban take over again?" asks Muhammad Ibrahim, an Afghan Defence Ministry official. "We in Afghanistan - and let me be very clear, all of us from the Pashtuns to Tajiks, to Uzbeks to the Hazaras - perceive Pakistain as the main problem."

President Hamid Maybe I'll join the Taliban Karzai
... A former Baltimore restaurateur, now 12th and current President of Afghanistan, displacing the legitimate president Rabbani in December 2004. He was installed as the dominant political figure after the removal of the Taliban regime in late 2001 in a vain attempt to put a Pashtun face on the successor state to the Taliban. After the 2004 presidential election, he was declared president regardless of what the actual vote count was. He won a second, even more dubious, five-year-term after the 2009 presidential election. His grip on reality has been slipping steadily since around 2007, probably from heavy drug use...
had praised the slain Rabbani's peace efforts but said that they were "one sided" because the Taliban's only response "was just to kill people." Karzai alleged that these "enemies of peace" - the Taliban and other hard boyz - were "under the influence of foreign intelligence services", by which he meant Pakistain's ISI.

"Let's agree that any endgame in Afghanistan must include Pakistain, the Quetta Shura and even the Haqqanis as part of the solution, instead of leaving them as lingering problems," says Carl Adams. "The Americans need to realize that a draw in Afghanistan is a win for this trio"
"US strategists are trying to stabilize Afghanistan enough to prevent it from becoming a favourable environment for terrorism," said Micheal Semple, an EU representative in Afghanistan who initiated talks with the Taliban. "They calculate that Pakistain would benefit from this and could help achieve it. They consider Pakistain a challenge because they find themselves struggling to get the Pak establishment to deliver on the cooperation they hoped for. And they find Pakistain a puzzle as it is in the first place threatened by the consequences of that non-cooperation - as we have seen in Dir over the past week."

"Rabbani's liquidation was the biggest set-back to peace so far," says a top Afghan Intelligence official. "Who doesn't want peace is very clear. We see the Pakistain connection in this." Most government and intelligence officials in NATO, ISAF and the Afghan government echoed Karzai in blaming Pakistain indirectly for Rabbani's liquidation. But the way Rabbani was killed was quite similar to the murder of Ahmed Shah Massoud, the charismatic leader of Northern Alliance. He was killed by two Al Qaeda jacket wallahs pretending to be journalists just before the September 11, 2001 attacks, an liquidation launched to please Mullah Omar
... a minor Pashtun commander in the war against the Soviets who made good as leader of the Taliban. As ruler of Afghanistan, he took the title Leader of the Faithful. The imposition of Pashtunkhwa on the nation institutionalized ignorance and brutality already notable for its own fair share of ignorance and brutality...
, but which might have been set into motion without his consent. A section of the Haqqani Network under the influence of Pakistain's ISI denied killing Rabbani.

Negotiations with Taliban:

Recently, the Karzai government has decided to sit down with its enemies, the Taliban and the Hezb-e-Islami, in Japan. Qari Din Mohammad Hanif, the former Taliban planning minister who had a seal of approval from Mullah Umer, sat down with Afghan official Masoon Stanikzai, a senior member of High Peace Council, to talk. "The Taliban insisted on complete withdrawal of foreign troops from the country after 2014, and called the Karzai government a puppet saying they would not negotiate with them," one official said.

The Taliban, in a statement, also distanced themselves from Pakistain which according to analyst Carl Adams, a former director at CIA who has worked in Afghanistan and Pakistain, "shows how Pakistain's game is ending and how isolated Pakistain stands today in it's own game". He says: "The GHQ lost the plot when the US and NATO started negotiating with the Taliban directly and when OBL was killed."

Quetta Shura, Pakistain and NATO Supplies:

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir, Mullah Abdul Rauf, Mullah Muhammad Hassan, Mullah Ahmad Jan Akhundzada, and Mullah Muhammad Younis - the elite Quetta Shura members - were all caught in Bloody Karachi
...formerly the capital of Pakistain, now merely its most important port and financial center. It may be the largest city in the world, with a population of 18 million, most of whom hate each other and many of whom are armed and dangerous...
and other urban areas of Pakistain in a series of joint raids in 2010.

Mullah Mir Muhammad was caught from Faisalabad on January 26, 2010 in a joint raid by Pak and American intelligence officials when Americans intercepted a messenger and immediately asked Paks to take action. Also in Pak custody is Mullah Abdul Salam, caught in January 2010, and Maulvi Abdul Kabir, caught from Nowshehra on 20th February 2010 in similar raids by Pak and American teams.

"The problem is Pakistain," says former Afghan intelligence chief Amarullah Saleh. "The shelters are in Pakistain, and the war in Afghanistan is facilitated and run from Pakistain. What other clarifications do they want?"

In Pakistain, extensive diplomatic efforts have been made by US and British diplomats including NATO officials to convince the government to re-open NATO supply lines. Stephen Tyne, a NATO logistical expert, says, "It costs NATO an extra $10,000 per 20-foot container with an additional $1.3 billion bill apart from bribing CAR nations with over $500 million to supply NATO, thanks to Paks blocking the routes."

About 90 percent of non-military supplies to Afghanistan went through Bloody Karachi. Today, close to 75 percent of the cargo is shipped through the northern network.

While ties between Pakistain and NATO have been worsening since the embargo began, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen showed his annoyance in Brussels when he said it was not business as usual with Pakistain. That created panic in the Pak camp where meetings were called at the highest level. A top US military official who spoke on condition of anonymity said, "General Allan had been told repeatedly by the Pak COAS that they are waiting for the right time. We expect the route to open any time soon with a candid apology on the Salala incident too."

"Everybody is hopeful we can get something back on track with Pakistain," US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John F. I was in Vietnam, you know Kerry
Senator-for-Life from Massachussetts, the Senate's current foreign policy expert, filling the vacated wingtips of Joe Biden...
(D-Mass) said in an interview with The News Agency that Dare Not be Named. "Paks make money off that route...That may interest them at some point... but on the other hand, we can't be prisoners of one relationship with something as vital to our national security interests."

Pak Brigadier (r) Rahid Wali Janjua explains the Pak perspective: "Strategic Depth is a redundant theory first perceived by General (r) Aslam Baig. Pakistain has come a long way after that. Pakistain now wants a democratic government in Afghanistan which is legitimate with proportional ethnic representation in it."

'America is not retreating':

"Let's agree that any endgame in Afghanistan must include Pakistain, the Quetta Shura and even the Haqqanis as part of the solution, instead of leaving them as lingering problems," says Carl Adams. "The Americans need to realize that a draw in Afghanistan is a win for this trio. Any future guarantors of Afghanistan as a state - powers such as Soddy Arabia
...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual hajj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. When the oil runs out the rest of the world is going to kick sand in their national face...
, China, Russia, and NATO - must understand that the solution must include them or there really is no long-term solution."

"Transitioning security and governance to the Afghans does not mean America's departure, and I want Pakistain to hear that loud and clear," said Kerry, who has made several trips to Pakistain. "And I want Afghans and the neighbours to hear that loud and clear. America is not retreating from its interests. We're really trying to be more effective about the way in which we're going to support them."

"The time has come for some give and take on Afghanistan," says Adams. "Once those concessions are made, we must have international guarantees of a workable peace. Without all that coming together, there will only be another decade of war, with or without the Americans there."

Asked about the endgame in Afghanistan, he said: "The US and NATO will not go back, for now."
Link


Afghanistan
Who will replace Karzai?
2012-07-01
Nearing the end of his second term, the Afghan president wants early elections before US and NATO troops leave. His opponents are wary

The next two years are very important for Afghanistan. The US and NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A collection of multinational and multilingual and multicultural armed forces, all of differing capabilities, working toward a common goal by pulling in different directions...
are handing over security responsibilities to the Afghan cops and this transition will continue probably until 2014. Meanwhile,
...back at the wreckage, Captain Poindexter awoke groggily, his hand still stuck in the Ming vase...
political parties and coalitions are gearing up for the upcoming presidential election scheduled for the spring of 2014.

President Hamid Maybe I'll join the Taliban Karzai
... A former Baltimore restaurateur, now 12th and current President of Afghanistan, displacing the legitimate president Rabbani in December 2004. He was installed as the dominant political figure after the removal of the Taliban regime in late 2001 in a vain attempt to put a Pashtun face on the successor state to the Taliban. After the 2004 presidential election, he was declared president regardless of what the actual vote count was. He won a second, even more dubious, five-year-term after the 2009 presidential election. His grip on reality has been slipping steadily since around 2007, probably from heavy drug use...
is nearing the end of his second term, and the Afghan constitution only allows two terms for a president. Karzai has said he is considering holding presidential elections a year early, in 2013, and does not want to put too much pressure on the country when NATO combat forces are due to leave in 2014. "Either the elections could be brought forward, or the handover of security to Afghan forces could be speeded up," he said in a presser in Kabul on April 12.

"Skillfully navigating the complex regional, tribal and ethnic landscape has been Karzai's strongest ability"
Some Afghan politicians and analysts backed the proposal and warned the 2014 votes might be unfeasible if security declines as NATO troops withdraw. The election should be held while NATO troops are still present, they argue. Others see Karzai's proposal as a worrying admission that the Afghan cops might not be able to maintain peace in the country.

Analsysts believe Karzai is either preparing to run again or backing one of his brothers or close aides as his successor. "An early election would leave little time for electoral reforms to prevent a repeat of the massive ballot-stuffing fraud and use of government resources that marred Karzai's last victory," said General (r) Abdul Wahid Taqat, a former intelligence officer and a political analyst.

Independent candidates and coalitions are gearing up for the upcoming polls because there are no strong political parties in the country and the democratic system is weak
"Early elections can happen if something happens to the president or if the president resigns," said Bashir Alkozai, a senior analyst who monitors Afghanistan's parliamentary politics. "If he moves up elections, Karzai would have to resign and his first vice president, Mohammad Qasim Fahim, would take over. Emergency elections would then have to be scheduled within three months according the country's constitution."

The two largest political oppositions of the country - the National Coalition of Afghanistan (NCA) and the National Front of Afghanistan (NFA) - issued a joint statement on April 30 alleging the Karzai government was 'personalizing' the election institutions and engineering the date and outcome. The NCA is led by Dr Abdullah Abdullah
... the former foreign minister of the Northern Alliance government, advisor to Masood, and candidate for president against Karzai. Dr. Abdullah was born in Kabul and is half Tadjik and half Pashtun...
, who was a candidate in the 2009 presidential elections, and Mohammad Younas Qanoni, MP and leader of Afghanistan e Naween (New Afghanistan) political party. The NFA is a political alliance between Ahmad Zia Massoud, former first vice president and brother of late anti-Soviet and anti-Taliban capo Ahmed Shah Massoud, General Abdul Rashid Dostum
...ethnic Uzbek warlord who distinguished himself fighting the Soviets and the Taliban. The story that he had a bad guy run over with a tank is an exaggeration. It was an armored personnel carrier...
, the founder of Jombesh Party, and Muhammad Muhaqqiq, a leader of a faction of Hezb-e-Wahdat and a member of parliament from Kabul.
 
"The early election issue is just a political gimmick with specific objectives," said Sayed Fazel Sancharaki, front man for the NCA.

Analysts say Karzai has not decided whom to support as his successor, and he is not likely to, until the last minute. "Gaining the support of Karzai and the international community, especially the US, is essential to winning the vote," said Engineer Kamaal Khan Safi, an MP from Kunduz.

So far, only two people have formally announced that they plan to run for president: Ali Ahmad Jalali, a former interior minister and Fawzia Koofi, the deputy speaker of the Afghan parliament and the first woman to hold that office. Political analysts say neither of candidates is strong.

Karzai's elder brother, Qayyum Karzai, is also said to be planning to enter the race. Sources privy to the plans say Karzai's aides have advised the president to nominate Qayyum as his successor. But Karzai hinted he would not support Qayyum, fearing it may create the impression that he wants to keep the presidency in his own family.

Qayyum, 55, resigned from parliament in 2008 citing poor health. He has also reportedly been involved in back-channel peace diplomacy with the Taliban through Soddy Arabia
...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual hajj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. When the oil runs out the rest of the world is going to kick sand in their national face...
.Two other potential candidates are Omar Daudzai, the Afghan ambassador in Pakistain and former chief of staff of the Afghan president, and Farooq Wardak, the education minister. Analysts believe one of them would get Karzai's backing.

"Daudzai, a long time confidant of Karzai, was the man behind the scene who helped bring Muhaqqiq and Dostum into the coalition," said Bashir Alkozai. "If either of these candidates receives Karzai's support, they will also benefit from his financial and political networks."

Abdullah Abdullah - Karzai's top contender in the 2009 presidential elections - and Ahmad Zia Massud - former first vice president and brother of Ahmed Shah Massud - are likely to be the candidates from NCA and NFA
While it is too early to anticipate, Karzai's voluntary departure before the election will not only sit positively with many Afghans, but will also leave him a respectable legacy in Afghan history, experts say. But they think Karzai wants to remain a Milli Mashar or 'national leader' after quitting. The absence of an alternative keeps the coalition forces dependent on Karzai. "Skillfully navigating the complex regional, tribal and ethnic landscape has been Karzai's strongest ability," said Arif Ansar, an Af-Pak expert at Politact, a Washington-based think tank. "Karzai has masterfully exploited the sensitivities of Pakistain's relations with India and the US and the recently signed Afghansian-India strategic deal is a case in point. When it comes to connecting with the Afghans, Karzai has consistently projected Pakistain as desiring to dominate them and has raised the issue of civilian casualties when it comes to NATO."

The NCA and the NFA have started initial preparations for the presidential elections. It is not known if they will be able to back a joint candidate. "There hasn't been any discussion over joint candidates," said Sancharaki, adding that they don't even know who the potential candidates are.

Abdullah Abdullah, Karzai's top contender in the 2009 presidential elections, and Massoud are likely to be the candidates from the NCA and the NFA respectively.

Some circles believe that Zalmay Khalilzad, the former US ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq and the UN, and Hanif Atmar, former interior minister and a leader of Hezb-e-Haq-wa-Edalat (Truth and Justice Party) are also interested in running for president.

Political analysts say the majority of Afghans, who are Pashtuns, will accept the next president if he is a Pashtun from a leading tribe. Karzai was able to hold his own in large part because he is a Pashtun from the southern province of Kandahar, said Israr Ahmed Karimzai, another political analyst. Historically, he said, the south is the region where leaders come from.

"Most people go by what has traditionally been the case in Afghanistan," Arif Ansar said. "Moving forward, it should be what the majority of Afghans think. Although for this to happen, it will require unity amongst Afghans."

Experts say only independent candidates and coalitions are gearing up for the upcoming polls because there are no strong political parties in the country and the democratic system is weak. According to the website of the Afghan Ministry of Justice, there are 84 registered political parties in the country. These parties have been formed by Mujahideen leaders, members of the former People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA), and some independent figures. But because of a number of contributing factors, the political parties have no visible role in Afghan politics, especially the presidential polls.

"The affiliations of political parties are mostly with their ethnicity, tribes and region, and none of them are truly nationalistic in orientation," said Ansar.

The current Afghan government is structured around coalitions of individuals - former Mujahideen and influential tribal elders - and not around coalitions of political parties, said Bashir Alkozai. "Political parties have been isolated over the past decade, and will therefore not likely to strengthen."

Zia Ur Rehman reports from Kabul, where he is a part of the Pak-Afghan Media Exchange Program. He can be contracted at zia_red@hotmail.com
Link


-Obits-
After Rabbani
2011-09-26
[Dawn] PROF Burhanuddin Rabbani
... the legitimate president of Afghanistan...
is the first of the seven leaders who represented the face of the Afghan jihad against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1980s to be assassinated.

He was not a power-broker like Wali Karzai, the assassinated half-brother of the Afghan president, nor was he a man who stood in the way of any power player's ambitions in the current fratricidal Afghan conflict. Yet his liquidation carries a message; it is not without purpose.

Prof Rabbani, a person of dignified bearing with scholarly credentials and demeanour, had his share of controversy, guile and animosities, but, unlike some of his peers, he was never known to be ruthless. He played his hand masterfully in early 1992, when the Najibullah regime crumbled, to facilitate the entry of his ally Ahmed Shah Massoud in Kabul who had already succeeded in winning over key Parchami generals controlling the city.

Rabbani manoeuvred to negotiate the Beautiful Downtown Peshawar Accords that gave the strategic defence portfolio to his party, Jamiat-i-Islami, and ensured that the position of prime minister did not go to the person of Massoud's arch rival, Gulbadin Hekmatyar.
Who everyone agrees is a bad egg, even those said to be his friends.
He managed to extend his titular presidency beyond the period of four months agreed under the accords. He is also credited with a short-lived, last-minute Massoud-Hekmatyar patch-up in 1996 when the Taliban were knocking at the gates of Kabul. The Bonn process did not accord Rabbani the recognition he had expected following the ouster of the Taliban. Thereafter, his political fortunes remained somewhat in decline.

Hamid Maybe I'll join the Taliban Karzai
... A former Baltimore restaurateur, now 12th and current President of Afghanistan, displacing the legitimate president Rabbani in December 2004. He was installed as the dominant political figure after the removal of the Taliban regime in late 2001 in a vain attempt to put a Pashtun face on the successor state to the Taliban. After the 2004 presidential election, he was declared president regardless of what the actual vote count was. He won a second, even more dubious, five-year-term after the 2009 presidential election. His grip on reality has been slipping steadily since around 2007, probably from heavy drug use...
appointed Rabbani to head the High Peace Council, a body mandated to work for reconciliation, because he remained one of the few Afghan personalities who could reach across the ethnic divide which is partly responsible for keeping Afghanistan in a state of political fragmentation and turmoil.

The Council has achieved little, but as its head and for the respect he enjoyed, Rabbani symbolised the idea and the process of reconciliation. His liquidation is meant to kill the process. The crime is a stubborn and disdainful rejection of peace on the part of its perpetrators. The circumstances of the liquidation should help to identify them. Their act calls for a firm and forceful response. The challenge for the Afghans and for Pakistain is how to salvage the reconciliation process and push it forward.

Reaction to Rabbani's liquidation includes calls within the Kabul establishment to end the reconciliation process. The media have reported views that, being a Tajik, Rabbani was not the right person to head the process which cost him his life
Yes, there can always be found thise who have views, if one looks hard enough in the right places...
or that the liquidation demonstrated that this is not the time for reconciliation which must await the withdrawal of the US/NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A collection of multinational and multilingual and multicultural armed forces, all of differing capabilities, working toward a common goal by pulling in different directions...
forces. These are dangerous, if not motivated, explanations and a veiled justification for continuation of the conflict.

The US/NATO military presence has become part of the problem, and a clear US commitment to limit and withdraw military presence is necessary for the eventual balance and stability of Afghanistan. Realistically, however, the drawdown and withdrawal of US forces will be eased by progress towards reconciliation and reduction of violence. Those wishing to force the US military exit, recalling the fate of the Soviet intervention, need to bear in mind the difference.

A large section of the Afghans and almost all countries of the world are comfortable with the US military presence as long as it is seen to be combating the Taliban and extremism. Arguably, domestic pressures within the US are building to bring the troops back home, but that opinion will not countenance a retreat. On the other hand, the Taliban, their bad boy creed and linkages with Al Qaeda are universally viewed as an abomination. Many countries including Afghanistan's neighbours and most Afghans will oppose and resist any return of the Taliban rule, even if supposedly the US military presence were to end precipitously.

Stabilisation in Afghanistan depends on progress towards reconciliation and reduction of violence which requires a three-way cooperation between the Afghan government as the process must be Afghan-led, the United States as the occupation power and Pakistain, not for any claim of a special role but because of the demographics of the area and the presence in Pakistain of many Afghan Taliban elements including leaders.

Pakistain has the ability to put pressure on some of the Taliban, who may be amenable to reconciliation, to accept reasonable and realistic terms. While Pakistain's tolerance for the presence of the Afghan Taliban inside the country and its insistence on choosing its own tactics to deal with Death Eaters and cut-throats is understandable and possible to explain, Pakistain cannot allow the use of its territory for operations and attacks in another country, which negate its claim of illusory sovereignty and attract the charge of complicity.

The opportunity for tripartite cooperation to promote reconciliation, and hence prospects of peace, appears to be all but lost with the recent downturn in US-Pakistain relations. The US defence secretary and chairman, joint chiefs have publicly accused Pakistain of backing the Haqqani group's recent attacks on the US embassy and NATO compound near Kabul. The implicit warning is unprecedented. Official denials or blaming the US military intervention for the violence will not help. In the interest of our national security, we need to take every measure to ensure that Pakistain's generosity towards the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan refugees is abused no more.

The ominous trends in US-Pakistain relations must be tossed in the calaboose through urgent dialogue at the highest political and military levels based on realism and frankness and without false expectations. Positive US-Pakistain relations, but not necessarily an aid relationship, are important for Pakistain and for the region. Advocacy to the contrary is bereft of comprehension of global and regional correlations of forces.

There is no gainsaying that Afghanistan has long suffered and needs peace. The three decades of conflict have spread to Pakistain, inflicting a heavy toll and threatening destabilisation. Insensitivity about continuation of the conflict amounts to acquiescence in its fatal consequences for the future of the country.
Link


Afghanistan
10,000 Rally In Kabul Against Peace Deal With Taliban And Pakistan
2011-05-07
The meeting was organized by a former intelligence director, Amrullah Saleh, and attended by Abdullah Abdullah, a former presidential candidate, and was a frontal attack on the current government’s policies.

Speakers denounced both Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The organizers promised that if they were not listened to, they would “go to the streets and protest.”

Called A Gathering For Justice, the meeting was attended overwhelmingly by Afghans from the north and particularly from Panjshir Province, the home of the Afghan icon Ahmed Shah Massoud, who was a national hero for strongly resisting the Soviet occupiers, and who was killed by suicide bombers backed by Al Qaeda two days before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Panjshir is also the home province of Mr. Saleh and Mr. Abdullah.
Link


Arabia
Saudi Arabia: Government Warns of Al Qaeda Elements Disguising Themselves as Journalists
2010-04-12
[Asharq al-Aswat] Governmental warnings issued yesterday in Saudi Arabia opened the door to the possibility of Al Qaeda elements disguising themselves as journalists and disguising explosive devices as camera equipment in order to target government dignitaries and state guests. Such warnings are expected to lead to increased security procedures and rigorous inspection of journalists covering press events attended by senior state officials or official state visits undertaken by foreign delegations.

Saudi Interior Ministry spokesman Major General Mansour al-Turki confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat the need for media figures to carry credentials identifying them as journalists whilst on duty, stressing the importance that all precautionary measures are taken in order to plug any holes that Al Qaeda could in order to achieve its objectives. In addition to this, media sources monitoring Al Qaeda activity have not ruled out the possibility of Al Qaeda utilizing the media in order to achieve its objectives under the Machiavellian precept of "the end justifies the means." There have also been previous examples of such criminal acts, for example Afghan commander Ahmed Shah Massoud was killed by elements who posed as journalists claiming to want to interview him.
Link


Europe
Belgian trial of Al-Qaeda cell suspects underway
2010-03-08
Nine alleged members of an Al Qaeda terror cell, suspected of having recruited jihadists and prepared attacks, go on trial in Brussels Monday.

It comes 15 months after dramatic raids in Brussels and Liege when police arrested nine suspects ahead of what the security services feared was an imminent attack. The arrests, in December 2008, came just days ahead of a European Union summit in the Belgian capital.

Seven of the suspects will be in court when the trial gets underway Monday morning, with an experienced terrorist case judge presiding. Two others, still on the run, will be judged in absentia. While no details of an imminent terrorist attack or explosives were uncovered, the accused face a possible 10 years in jail for their alleged membership of a terrorist group.

The central figure in the trial is 50-year-old Belgian-Moroccan Malika El Aroud. Aroud, who is being held under high security, is the widow of one of the killers of Ahmed Shah Massoud, head of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance in Afghanistan.

According to the Belgian federal prosecutor Aroud, an admirer of Osama bin Laden, led the recruitment of jihad fighters in Belgium, sending young Muslims off to train on the Afghan-Pakistan border. They were sometimes escorted by her second husband, Moez Garsalloui, who is one of those being tried in absentia. According to the prosecutor, he had ties with "important" Al Qaeda figures.

The prosecution evidence includes a farewell video, the kind of last testament left by suicide bombers. In this case it was made by another of the accused: Hicham Beyayo, 24, according to press reports. He had received the "green light to carry out an operation from which he wasn't expected to return," and "had said goodbye to his loved ones," Belgium's federal prosecutor Johan Delmulle said.

Beyayo has denied intending to carry out a terror attack. Malika El Aroud has dismissed the prosecution case as "empty".

The terror probe got underway in late 2007, following information gleaned during investigations into an escape plan made by Tunisian Nizar Trabelsi. He was serving a 10-year sentence in Belgium for planning an Al-Qaeda attack in September 2001. Under that plan, a truck bomb was to have targetted a military base housing US troops.
Link


Home Front: WoT
Long Island Sonny Boy Turns Terrorist
2009-07-23
And, as you'll read, his mother doesn't love him anymore ...
He was the terrorist next door.

A former Boy Scout from Long Island turned his back on his All-American life and converted to Islam, joining al Qaeda in Pakistan and firing rockets at a US military base in Afghanistan, authorities said yesterday. Bryant Neal Vinas, a 26-year-old son of South American immigrants who came to the United States to give their son a better life, instead became a jihadist hell-bent on destroying America.

"He broke my heart. This is not my son," his Argentinian-born mother, Maria Vinas, of Medford, LI, told The Post, choking back tears. "I hope I never see him again."

The one-time devout Catholic's zeal to shed American blood was not contained to conflicts abroad, authorities said. According to court papers filed in Brooklyn federal court, he also handed over to his al Qaeda handlers "expert advice and assistance" about how to blow up the subway here in New York and the Long Island Rail Road.

When he was finally arrested on the battlefield in Afghanistan and US officials caught wind of the plot, it prompted a massive security alert at Penn Station and other transit hubs last Thanksgiving.

Vinas' bizarre journey from an average suburban life in Suffolk County to that of a bearded mullah in the terrorist no-man's land of Waziristan in Pakistan has emerged as a cautionary tale of militant Islam's reach.

"A wonderful boy, my sweetheart," his mother said. "I called him my teddy bear."

Maria lost track of her son not long after giving up custody when she and her husband divorced nine years ago. When he moved out, Bryant, a one-time Scout, was active in the Catholic church. "My husband was very religious," she said. "He destroyed my son, obviously."

The father, Juan Vinas, originally from Peru, told the Los Angeles Times that his son was living with him as late as September 2007 and became immersed in Islam after he began attending a mosque in Selden, LI. He said Bryant grew increasingly reclusive and headstrong.
No kidding. Really? Gosh, you could never have seen that coming, huh Pops?
Bryant began wearing Islamic robes and a skullcap, said, Juan Vinas, who was extensively interviewed by the feds. "He became very excited" about Islam, converted from Catholicism and even tried to get his father to convert.

The imam at the Islamic Association of Long Island, Nayyar Imam, said Bryant showed up there in mid-2006 and quickly began attending four to five times a week. He stood out as the only Latino at the mosque that primarily is attended by immigrants from Pakistan. "He never mentioned anything happening in the news or anything in the newspaper," Imam said. "I just can't believe that this sort of person would do this. I'm shocked."
Floored. Never saw it coming. Didn't preach anything in the mosque other than peace, harmony and good will. No idea where Vinny got all that bile about hating the Jooz ...
Law-enforcement sources said Vinas had discovered a different, more dangerous kind of Islam when he began perusing militant Web sites.
As opposed to the peace and fluffy bunny Islam at the mosque ...
In late 2007, Vinas left his hometown abruptly, without telling his father where he was going.
"Hey Boy, where you going?"
"None of your beeswax, Pops!"
Federal investigators say Bryant turned up in Pakistan in December 2007 and convinced al Qaeda recruiters that he was sincere about his commitment to radicalism. Someone close to the group vouched for him, the LA Times reported.
And who might that be, and what connection does he have with the mosque back home? A real shame we can't, you know, check telephone records or something ...
"He had a good reference, so they trusted him," an anti-terror official said.
"Boss, Mahmoud just called. Sez Vinny is a good fella."
"Hokay, that's enough for me. Vinny, you're a made man!"
"Gosh, you mean it? This is the happiest day of my life -- well, until I can go explode somewhere!"
As a result, he received "military-type training" from May to August at an al Qaeda camp and went on a mission near the lawless Afghan border. Vinas became known by other names, including Ibrahim, Ben Yameen al-Kanadee and Bashir al-Ameriki -- "Bashir the American."
AKA; Cannon Fodder
He was dispatched to bring jihad to the next level. In September 2008, he and a group of cohorts fired rockets at a US base in Afghanistan, according to court papers filed by Assistant US Attorney James Loonam. The papers did not specify if there were any casualties.
Missed by a country mile?
The papers also revealed that Vinas provided al Qaeda with detailed information "based on his "specialized knowledge" of New York's subways and the LIRR.
Got the T-shirt with the subway map printed on it
But in November, he was captured by Pakistani forces. He immediately sang to investigators with critical information about meeting with al Qaeda operational chiefs about a plot to blow up the transit systems, although law-enforcement sources said it never got beyond an "aspirational stage."

In reality, Vinas was just a wannabe talking a big game and did not have inside information about the transit systems, having never worked for them, a source said. Instead, he had the kind of commuter knowledge that any Long Island resident would have.
Which was more than any Peshawar resident would have ...
The MTA said yesterday it had been "in constant communication with local and federal authorities" as the probe developed. "There was never an imminent threat to the system," the agency said in a statement.

After Vinas was captured, he was taken into custody in Brooklyn. On Jan. 28, he pleaded guilty in a closed-door hearing before federal Judge Nicholas Garaufis.
Didn't even have to play Muskrat Love to get him to confess?
Since then, he has also been cooperating with European investigators, who are probing cases in Italy and Belgium, allegedly involving al Qaeda terrorists who Vinas met in Pakistan.

One case involves Malika El Aroud, 50, the Belgian ex-wife of a man behind the slaying of Afghan leader Ahmed Shah Massoud. Massoud was a key anti-Taliban leader assassinated in a bomb attack two days before Sept. 11, 2001. Aroud was one of five terror suspects captured in Belgium last winter. Vinas is expected to be a star prosecution witness when the case against Aroud, a prominent pro-terrorist blogger, goes to trial. He is currently being held at an undisclosed location.

"I think the FBI know where he is," said his father, Juan. "But they won't tell me. They don't want to tell me."

Relatives told the LA Times that they were interviewed last year after a truck bomb killed 55 people at the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, Pakistan. The agents said they were checking on Americans living in Pakistan and had determined that Bryant Vinas was there.

Since those interviews, Juan Vinas said, he hasn't been able to get any information from the FBI.
You didn't seem to care a whole lot when Vinny went off to Pakistain ...
His mother first learned of his al Qaeda connection when The Post called her Medford home yesterday. "I know he's crazy, but not that crazy. This is horrible," she said. "I thought he was dead when the FBI [first] contacted me."
Wait ...
Vinas' identity was a closely guarded secret as the investigation into his al Qaeda ties expanded. The case is part of probes in at least seven countries. "It is a massive case," a Justice Department official said.

Vinas' mother could think of little to say to her son, whom she hasn't seen in eight years. "He chose to be like this. I feel very sorry," she said. "Good luck."
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Europe
6 alleged Islamic extremists charged in Belgium
2008-12-13
Authorities on Friday arrested the Belgian widow of a man involved in killing an anti-Taliban warlord, saying she was part of an al-Qaida group that was about to launch a suicide attack. Malika El Aroud, 49, was charged with belonging to a terrorist organization. Five men in their 20s were also charged; eight others were released for lack of evidence

El Aroud, dressed in black from head to toe, was pushed into a police car during a night raid early Thursday a few miles away from, and a few hours before, a summit of European Union government leaders was scheduled to open. Authorities said she was too dangerous to walk the streets and even considered calling off the summit.

"It was considered as a possibility," said Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme at summit headquarters. In the end, the gathering went smoothly. Authorities said they cannot say whether an attack was planned in Brussels or elsewhere.

The arrest added to the aura of El Aroud, who is known for using the Internet to support radical causes.

"She is a beacon and a catalyzer in the radical movement, and she is very smart in using it," said Brice De Ruyver, a Ghent University professor and former government security adviser. "Our freedom of expression has always given her a safe conduct to use the Internet and attract vulnerable youths," De Ruyver said. One of the five men charged was said to be on the verge of carrying out a suicide attack.

Repeated phone calls to the office of her lawyer went unanswered.

El Aroud has figured in almost every major Belgian terror probe since 2001, investigators say. An official in the Federal Prosecutor's Office said she frequently switched laptops and wireless Internet services to evade investigators. The official, who has knowledge of years of investigations into El Aroud, spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the case.

Last year, she was detained in a pre-Christmas anti-terrorism sweep, and authorities were convinced they had averted a terrorist attack.

El Aroud has had a tumultuous life. As a child, she moved from her native Tangiers in Morocco to Belgium, where an unhappy youth led to failed relationships before she discovered fundamentalist Islam.

She and her husband, Abdessatar Dahmane, went to Afghanistan, where he was killed during the assassination of anti-Taliban warlord Ahmed Shah Massoud two days before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the United States.

Turned into the widow of a martyr, El Aroud returned to Belgium, where, experts say, she since has been involved in radical networks in Belgium and Switzerland. Investigators suspect her current husband, Moez Garsalloui, is now an important link of El Aroud's group in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

But Claude Moniquet, the president of the Brussels-based think tank European Strategic Intelligence and Security Center, said he believes any attack would probably have targeted Europe rather than Afghanistan. "Some of the terrorists who were arrested were just back from that country after they had received training; they would not go there anymore," he said. "It is unlikely from a strategic standpoint that a new attack in Afghanistan would change much. In Europe, however, the impact would have been huge."
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Terror Networks
Boomerette talent scout arrested in Belgium - Flashy clothes gave her away
2008-12-12
(CNN) -- Belgian police Thursday arrested a woman they called an "al-Qaeda living legend" as part of an operation to thwart a terror attack being planned to coincide with an EU summit in Brussels, a Belgian police source told CNN.

Police seized 14 people, one of whom was planning to carry out a suicide attack in Belgium, the source said. They had contacts at the "highest levels of al-Qaeda," the source said. The police source said officers "had only 24 hours to act."

The leaders of the European Union's 27 member states are meeting in Brussels Thursday and Friday. It is not clear that the heads of state and government themselves were the target of the planned attack.

The federal prosecutor's office in Belgium identified one of the suspects as Malika El-Aroud, the widow of one of the men who assassinated a key opponent of the Taliban in Afghanistan two days before September 11, 2001. El-Aroud's late husband was one of two men who killed Ahmed Shah Massoud, a leader of the Northern Alliance, in a suicide mission ordered by Osama Bin Laden.

Belgian police aimed to prevent El-Aroud, whom the police source called an "al-Qaeda living legend," from moving to Afghanistan to play a role in the fight against the coalition forces there, the source said. She is thought to be a recruiter for the anti-Western network, rather than a fighter, the source said.

El-Aroud described the "love" she and her late husband felt for Osama bin Laden in a 2006 interview with CNN. "Most Muslims love Osama. It was he who helped the oppressed. It was he who stood up against the biggest enemy in the world, the United States. We love him for that," she told CNN then.

Gazing into CNN's cameras she said, "It's the pinnacle in Islam to be the widow of a martyr. For a woman it's extraordinary."

"Most of those arrested" Thursday had Belgian passports, the police source said. All 14 are of Moroccan descent.

Three of the suspects had traveled to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region to participate in fighting or training camps, and were in contact with an unnamed suspect who had direct links to important al-Qaeda figures, police said. Two of those three returned to Belgium several months ago and started surveillance operations, and the third returned to Belgium a week ago, police said. Intelligence showed that third person was ready to carry out a suicide attack, police said.

Information showed the suspect who was to carry out the attack had received the green light to execute the operation, police said. Investigators noted the suspect had said goodbye to his family "because he wanted to go to paradise with a clear conscience," police said. Authorities also found a video meant for the suspect's family, which police said was probably a farewell tape. They did not find any explosives, the police said in a statement.

The 14 suspects were arrested after police carried out 16 search warrants in Brussels and one in the western Belgian city of Liege. During those searches, police seized computer equipment and documents and the 14 people, including the three who traveled to Afghanistan and Pakistan and 11 others suspected of having given them logistical and material support.

Police said their investigation has been under way intensively since the end of 2007.
Link


Terror Networks
Sheikh Said: Al Qaeda's financier
2008-08-29
Mustafa Abu Al Yazid, or Mustafa Ahmed Mohamed Osman Abu Al Yazid, also known as “Sheikh Said”, commander of the Al Qaeda terrorist organization in Afghanistan, was a familiar face in Egypt in the 1980s. He fled to Afghanistan after security operations against the Egyptian Islamic Jihad movement, to which he belonged, intensified. He may still be remembered in Egypt but not nearly as well as he is known today in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

There have been recent reports claiming that Al Yazid had been killed during raids against fundamentalist strongholds along the Pakistani-Afghan frontier. But who is Al Yazid? And what role has he played within the Al Qaeda organization?

Al Yazid could be described as ‘Al Qaeda’s financier’. He was chosen for this role due to his intellect and his theological knowledge of Islam but he lacked knowledge and interest in the military aspects of the Al Qaeda organization.

Like many other members of Egyptian Islamic Jihad, al Yazid made a fresh start in Afghanistan. They destroyed their old passports and forged new ones and changed their names so that they could not be traced even by the countries they were born in.

Yasser Al Sirri, Director of the Islamic Observation Centre in London told Asharq Al-Awsat that he was certain that “Mustafa Abu Al Yazid otherwise known as Sheikh Said, Al Qaeda’s third man, survived the rocket attacks on the Pakistani-Afghan border last month.” He added, “Since Al Qaeda has not made a statement or announced his death, it is obvious that Al Yazid is still alive.” There are strong indications that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had knowledge of al Yazid’s whereabouts.

Sheikh Said is Al Qaeda’s current Commander of Operations in Afghanistan; he is an Egyptian national who was imprisoned for a while with Ayman al Zawahiri, Al Qaeda’s second man, following the assassination of the late Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. Sheikh Said is currently referred to as the third most important member of Al Qaeda, after Osama Bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri, since the five men who have held this position since the fall of the Taliban in 2001 have been killed or detained.

Yasser Al Sirri revealed to Asharq Al-Awsat that al Yazid and Sheikh Said were in fact the same person; the man who was responsible for the finances of one of Osama Bin Laden’s Khartoum-based companies and who is now Al Qaeda’s Commander of Operations in Afghanistan.

Following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, al Yazid was mentioned as part of the US investigation of Osama Bin Laden but the Americans have only recently come to know the importance of this man. Initially, the US government believed that al Yazid was of Saudi nationality but he is from the Egyptian region of Ash Sharqiyah. An accountant by training, he fled Egypt for Afghanistan in 1988. At present, Sheikh Said is not wanted in Egypt on any charges but he is sought by the USA on charges of sponsoring terrorism. He ranks fifteenth on the most wanted list signed by the US President George W. Bush in 2002. Al Sirri told Asharq Al Awsat that upon his arrival to Afghanistan, Sheikh Said joined Al Qaeda in 1988 and became a member of its Shura Council along with Abu Hafs al Masri and Abu Obeida. Sheikh Said is said to be popular within the Council and able to reconcile conflicting trends of Islamic fundamentalist thought. He is fluent in Pashto and has strong ties with the Afghans, not to mention with other members of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad group who also fled Egypt for Afghanistan.

The news that Sheikh Said is a pseudonym for Mustafa Abu Al Yazid is important because Sheikh Said is reportedly responsible for financing the 9/11 attacks in the United States. His pseudonym is included in the US congress investigation into the attack as the man responsible for funding the operation via accounts based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Sheikh Said travelled to Qatar then to the UAE as part of his role in financing the 9/11 attacks. Mohamed Atta, who led the 9/11 hijackers, returned a surplus amount of US $26,000 to Sheikh Said two days before the attacks took place.

It is interesting that Sheikh Said agreed to help finance the 9/11 attacks since he and a number of other high ranking Al Qaeda members, including Mullah Omar, opposed the attacks. Despite his objection the Sheikh acceded to the wishes of Osama Bin Laden, and transferred the funds. Sheikh Said was named Commander of Operations for Al Qaeda in Afghanistan in June 2007, taking over the role of Abdel Hadi al Iraqi who was arrested in Turkey and handed over to the US forces in Iraq. He was then transferred to Guantanamo Bay in Cuba.

But what of Sheikh Said? Islamists in Britain claim that he is a spiritual figure, rather than a military commander. Sayyed Imam al Sharif, known as Dr Fadl, the founder of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad movement to which Sheikh Said belonged, objected to his appointment as a military commander. Dr Fadl, who is currently imprisoned in Tora Prison in Egypt and who recently recanted the theological basis for Jihad and renounced violence, says Sheikh Said’s appointment as Commander of Operations for Al Qaeda in Afghanistan signals an end to Al Qaeda’s cadres due to imprisonment or death. Sources close to Dr Fadl in Europe attribute his opposition to Sheikh Said’s new position to the latter’s lack of experience in military command.

Muntassir al Zayat, an Islamist lawyer, told Asharq Al-Awsat that he personally met Sheikh Said on more than one occasion in Egypt and knew him personally as a member of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad movement. He described him as a ‘popular figure, a spiritual leader and a theologian, but he does not have military expertise or command. Therefore we can understand Dr Fadl’s objection to him being given the position of a military commander in Al Qaeda.’

In his last public appearance Sheikh Said appeared in a rare television interview with journalist Najeeb Ahmed from a secret location in Afghanistan that was broadcast on the Pakistani Geo TV channel in July 2008. Sheikh Said revealed in this interview that he was angered by the publication of the Danish cartoons that depicted Prophet Mohammed in 2005. He confessed that the 9/11 attacks were indeed carried out by Al Qaeda, and criticized former Pakistani President Musharraf’s pledge to stand shoulder to shoulder with the United States. He also expressed his confidence that Al Qaeda would triumph in Afghanistan.

This interview preceded the broadcast of a video by Al Qaeda’s production house, As Sahab, and only a few days before Sheikh Said appeared in a video in which he elegized the Al Qaeda commander Abu Hussein Al Saidi and commended him for his courage. Abu Hussein Al Saidi was also a member of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad movement and fled to Afghanistan to join Al Qaeda. In the video, Sheikh Said also spoke about the merits of suicide bombing operations as a military tactic.

The US Congressional 9/11 Report revealed that Bin Laden’s main objective was to attack the USA, but others within the Al Qaeda organization held different viewpoints. The Taliban command was focusing military attacks on the Northern Alliance. The Taliban believed that any attack on America would result in a negative reaction and would drag the Americans into war just when the Taliban was within reach of a decisive victory over Ahmed Shah Massoud’s forces.

There is evidence that Mullah Omar, the leader of the Taliban, objected to any Al Qaeda operations against the USA in 2001. There were disputes between the leaders of Al Qaeda who wanted the attack on the USA to go ahead and others who supported Mullah Omar’s position opposing an attack on the USA at that time. Mullah Omar attributed his objection to ideological reasons, rather than due to fear of America’s response; he wanted Al Qaeda to attack “Jews”. Mullah Omar was also facing increasing amounts of pressure from the Pakistani government to prevent Al Qaeda from carrying out operations on foreign land.

Despite helping to finance the operation, Al Qaeda’s banker, Sheikh Said also adopted the same opinion as Mullah Omar due to his apprehension of America’s response to any attack. Abu Hafs al Mauritani, one of the more prominent members of Al Qaeda also opposed the attacks, which he outlined in a letter to Osama Bin Laden. Even after the Al Qaeda Shura Council had convened to discuss the matter, and the majority of its members objected to any planned attacks, Bin Laden remained insistent that the 9/11 attacks would go ahead as planned.

The full story about the disputes within the Al Qaeda organization regarding the 9/11 attacks is unknown and perhaps will never be fully discovered as the sources from which information can be derived are far from reliable. Yet there is no doubt that Sheikh Said played a part in preparation for the attacks.
Link


Europe
Belgium: Internet jihadist collects $1,100 a month in unemployment benefits
2008-07-13
Ms. El Aroud began her rise to prominence after her husband, two days before the attacks on September 11, 2001, carried out a bombing in Afghanistan that killed the anti-Taliban resistance leader Ahmed Shah Massoud at the behest of Osama bin Laden. Her husband was killed, and she took to the Internet as the widow of a martyr.

She remarried, and in 2007 she and her new husband were convicted in Switzerland for operating pro-Qaeda Web sites. Now, according to the Belgium authorities, she is a suspect in what the authorities say they believe is a plot to carry out attacks in Belgium.

Ms. El Aroud collects more than $1,100 a month in government unemployment benefits. "Her jihad is not to lead an operation but to inspire other people to wage jihad," said Glenn Audenaert, the director of Belgium's federal police force, in an interview. "She enjoys the protection that Belgium offers. At the same time, she is a potential threat'"
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Europe
Belgian Internet Warrior Rallies Women to Support Al Qaeda
2008-05-28
Malika El Aroud has become one of the most prominent Internet jihadists in Europe. In her living room, Ms. El Aroud, a 48-year-old Belgian, wears the ordinary look of middle age: a plain black T-shirt and pants and curly brown hair. The only adornment is a pair of powder-blue slippers monogrammed in gold with the letters SEXY. But it is on the Internet where Ms. El Aroud has distinguished herself. Writing in French under the name “Oum Obeyda,” she has transformed herself into one of the most prominent Internet jihadists in Europe.

She calls herself a female holy warrior for Al Qaeda. She insists that she does not disseminate instructions on bomb-making and has no intention of taking up arms herself. Rather, she browbeats Muslim men to go and fight and rallies women to join the cause. “It’s not my role to set off bombs — that’s ridiculous,” she said in a rare interview. “I have a weapon. It’s to write. It’s to speak out. That’s my jihad. You can do many things with words. Writing is also a bomb.”

Ms. El Aroud has not only made a name for herself among devotees of radical forums where she broadcasts her message of hatred toward the West. She also is well known to intelligence officials throughout Europe as simply “Malika” — an Islamist who is at the forefront of the movement by women to take a larger role in the male-dominated global jihad. The authorities have noted an increase in suicide bombings carried out by women — the American military reports that 18 women have conducted suicide missions in Iraq so far this year, compared with 8 all of last year — but they say there is also a less violent yet potentially more insidious army of women organizers, proselytizers, teachers, translators and fund-raisers, who either join their husbands in the fight or step into the breach as men are jailed or killed. “Women are coming of age in jihad and are entering a world once reserved for men,” said Claude Moniquet, president of the Brussels-based European Strategic Intelligence and Security Center. “Malika is a role model, an icon who is bold enough to use her own name. She plays a very important strategic role as a source of inspiration. She’s very clever — and extremely dangerous.”

Ms. El Aroud began her rise to prominence because of a man in her life. Two days before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, her husband carried out a bombing in Afghanistan that killed the anti-Taliban resistance leader Ahmed Shah Massoud at the behest of Osama bin Laden. Her husband was killed, and she took to the Internet as the widow of a martyr.

She remarried, and she and her new husband were convicted in Switzerland for operating pro-Qaeda Web sites. Now, according to the Belgium authorities, she is a suspect in what the authorities say they believe is a plot to carry out attacks in Belgium. “Vietnam is nothing compared to what awaits you our lands,” she wrote to a supposed Western audience in March about wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. “Ask your mothers, your wives to order your coffins.” To her followers she added: “Victory is appearing on the horizon my brothers and sisters. Let’s intensify our prayers.”

Her prolific writing and presence in chat rooms, coupled with her background, makes her a magnet for praise and sympathy. “Sister Oum Obeyda is virtuous among the virtuous; her life is dedicated to the good on this earth,” a man named Juba wrote late last year.
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