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India-Pakistan

Iranian oil smuggling into Pakistan exposes official terrorist-ties

2024-05-17

[Jpost] Pakistan's intelligence agencies have disclosed in their joint report a notable surge in the smuggling of Iranian oil within the country.

The report, submitted to the Ministry of Petroleum on Thursday, sheds light on the alarming escalation of this illicit activity. “There was a significant reduction in this illegal trade during the caretaker government, but after the recent general elections (held in February 2024), illegitimate trade has now escalated by a staggering 67%,” the report stated.

A troubling connection between militant groups in the country’s southwestern Balochistan province and the profits generated from oil smuggling was also revealed in the report. It suggests that banned Baloch-armed organizations operating in the restive region, including the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), are directly involved in this unlawful oil trade.

According to the report, Balochistan’s thriving underground smuggling operation spans six land and sea routes across five districts. An estimated 90,000 liters of Iranian oil are smuggled daily, and around 70% of this oil makes its way to consumption hubs in Pakistan’s three other major provinces.

SMUGGLING AND THE ECONOMIC FALLOUT
The report states that “2.8 billion liters of Iranian oil, including diesel and petrol, are smuggled into Pakistan annually. This rampant smuggling has resulted in a staggering loss of at least 227 billion rupees [an estimated $816 million] to the national treasury.”

Not to mention the loss to the Iranian government, beleaguered as they are despite being the beloved of Allah, masters of the Master Religion.

Approximately 2.2 to 2.4 million people, constituting anywhere between 14% and 16% of Balochistan's population, rely on Iranian oil smuggling within the province, according to the report.

“Predominantly, individuals from terrorism-affected areas in southern Balochistan are engaged in this trade, primarily due to limited economic prospects in the region,” it further stated.

The 44-page report, prepared by intelligence operatives, exposes the involvement of numerous high-profile figures in this smuggling ring. Among those implicated are sitting members of the Balochistan Assembly, former provincial ministers, and influential politicians.

The report identified one hundred and five smugglers who play pivotal roles in facilitating the illegal trade, coming from 14 districts in Balochistan, including the provincial capital, Quetta. It also identified 100 corrupt officials across the country who are said to be involved in oil smuggling.

Additionally, the report highlights the complicity of 533 petrol pumps operating without proper licenses, actively participating in the sale of contraband Iranian oil.

Emphasized in the report is the urgent need for immediate, though non-specific, measures to combat the multiple threats the country faces because of this Iranian oil smuggling operation. These threats include revenue loss, depletion of foreign exchange reserves, and damage to the state's reputation.

The illicit trade of oil in Pakistan's Balochistan province is not new; it has existed for several decades already. Iranian oil smuggling predominantly occurs within the Baloch belt, characterized by challenging mountain ranges, uninhabited deserts, and a lack of industries or economic opportunities for its residents. The districts identified by intelligence agencies as prone to smuggling Iranian oil are situated within the same belt. Consequently, the sole source of employment for the local population revolves around the illegal oil trade.

According to official records, Mashkel, a desert expanse along the Pakistan-Iran border, is home to around 60,000 individuals. In this town, two to three people per household are involved in the oil smuggling trade. This makes a complete operation shutdown challenging, as the government lacks alternative solutions.

Despite repeated promises and assurances from the Pakistani government to crack down on this smuggling and illegal trade within the borders, the efforts thus far have proven ineffective in curbing this nefarious activity.

Malik Siraj Akbar, an ethnic Baloch and Washington-based expert on Balochistan issues, told The Media Line that “amid a backdrop of deprivation and underdevelopment in the Baloch regions, Baloch militants on both sides of the border have exploited these grievances to further their agendas. They attribute the backwardness of their areas and the creation of hostile environments to the central governments of both countries.”

Akbar highlighted the significant support garnered by insurgent groups among the local populace, noting that “this support often surpasses that received by the Iranian and Pakistani national armies.”

He pointed out that “both nations have responded by ramping up security measures and enhancing cooperation to combat the Baloch insurgents.” However, Akbar cautioned that such crackdowns might incentivize militants to seek alternative funding sources for their movements.

He also emphasized that the Baloch insurgency extends its impact far beyond the immediate border regions, “potentially destabilizing the broader geopolitical landscape. This situation creates opportunities for external actors to exploit vulnerabilities within the affected countries, thereby complicating efforts to establish lasting peace and security in the region.”

Expanding on this point, Akbar said that “the persistent insurgency in the Baloch regions poses significant challenges to regional security and stability. The ongoing unrest disrupts the socio-economic fabric of the affected areas and heightens tensions between neighboring countries.”

He elaborated that “the intricate interplay of socio-economic dynamics, political interests, and security concerns adds complexity to resolving the Baloch insurgency issue.”

Dr. Dost Barrech, a geostrategic analyst who teaches international relations at the University of Balochistan, told The Media Line, “The Iranian oil trade is a lifeline for 50% of the population in the Baloch belt. Enforcing a crackdown could plunge these individuals into uncertainty. With a lack of alternative skills or education, they would face the grim prospect of unemployment and financial hardship.”

He underscored the “necessity for comprehensive policymaking considering the region's complex economic and social dynamics. Investment in education and skills training programs could offer alternative avenues for livelihood, reducing dependence on a single industry.”

Barrech also said that if terrorists are involved in this illegal trade, “then this issue is a question mark for our security operatives.”

Emphasizing the importance of China's massive $400 billion investment in Iran,

*Blink* That’s a lot of money…

Barrech noted that a considerable amount is directed towards sectors beyond energy. Stressing the mutual need for a stable trade route between China and Iran, he said that Pakistan must seize this opportunity, advising the government to withstand American pressure.

Barrech proposed that the government “legitimize the trade of Iranian oil to bolster the economy and facilitate the development of underdeveloped regions.” He argued that this approach would foster economic growth and uplift disadvantaged areas.

“The trade of Iranian oil, often labeled as smuggling, has been a subject of prolonged discussion due to its detrimental effects on the Pakistani economy and its alleged support for Baloch armed resistance,” Hazar Khan Baloch, a Quetta-based political analyst who closely monitors border issues, told The Media Line.

“However, despite widespread acknowledgment of these issues, there has been a lack of concrete action plans to address the situation,” he added.

Baloch claimed that “the primary obstacle to implementing effective measures against this trade is the involvement of various stakeholders, including politicians and border guards. This complex web of interests often leads to a resumption of the smuggling process after temporary disruptions.”

He further asserted that the trade in Iranian oil is a significant source of employment, particularly for residents of Balochistan's border areas.

“The resurgence of Iranian oil smuggling poses significant challenges for law enforcement agencies in Pakistan. It undermines national security and fuels corruption and illicit financial flows,” he claimed.

"The involvement of government officials and politicians in this disgraceful business also contributes to a culture of impunity, where criminal elements thrive at the expense of law-abiding citizens,” Baloch added.

“As authorities grapple with this pressing issue, urgent measures are required to dismantle the intricate networks perpetuating this illegal trade and safeguarding the country's interests,” he concluded.

Qiamuddin Agha, president of the Balochistan Petroleum Dealers Association, expressed concerns about the impact of the Iranian petroleum smuggling on legal petrol pumps.

“While Iranian oil is undercutting our legitimate business, there's also a human aspect to consider. Despite the losses, we continue to operate. When the Iranian oil supply diminishes, our sales increase,” he told The Media Line, emphasizing “the need for government policies that preserve employment opportunities and do not harm legal petrol sellers, especially considering the limited business opportunities in Balochistan.”

To rejuvenate Pakistan’s national economy, leaders from both civil and military sectors came together in March to discuss and tackle the obstacles hindering financial growth in Pakistan, including smuggling, corruption, and criminal syndicates.

The civil and military leadership attended a high-level meeting chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, where strategies to address a range of illegal activities, such as the Iranian oil smuggling trade and criminal mafias, were carefully considered.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Several drones were shot down over Iranian Isfahan, media reports — IAF airstruck ‘em good

2024-04-19

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

More from the Jerusalem Post:

Syrian reports indicated ~~Arclight~~ airstrike
<del>Arclight</del> airstrike

...KABOOM!...
s targeted sites belonging to the Syrian Army in the As-Suwayda and Daraa Governorates of southern Syria.

An Israeli missile strike targeted a site in Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate ~~Jews~~ ~~Zionists~~ Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
early Friday morning, according to ABC News. The report came shortly after local sources reported explosions in Isfahan in central Iran, in the As-Suwayda Governorate of southern Syria, and in the Baghdad area and Babil Governorate of Iraq early Friday morning.

REPORTS OF STRIKES ON SITES BELONGING TO SYRIAN ARMY
Syrian reports on Friday morning indicated airstrikes had also targeted sites belonging to the Syrian Army in the As-Suwayda and Daraa Governorates of southern Syria.

According to the local news site As-Suwayda24, the airstrikes targeted radar sites belonging to the Syrian military between Qarda and Izraa in Daraa in southern Syria.

Residents in Erbil and djinn-infested Mosul
... the home of a particularly ferocious and hairy djinn...
in Iraq reported hearing the sounds of fighter jets as well early Friday morning.

Shortly after the alleged Israeli missile strikes were reported, Florida Senator Marco Rubio
...The diminutive 13-year-old Republican U.S. Senator from Florida...
published a post on X reading "Israel has the ability to conduct strikes against targets inside Iran without entering Iranian air space from aircraft over Syrian and Iraqi airspace."

Even more from the Jpost:

Iran evacuates Hezbollah, IRGC commanders from Syria amid fears of Israeli retaliation
APRIL 18, 2024 13:41

…ie. hours before the IAF bombing run…

Reports have claimed on Wednesday that Iran is currently preparing for a potential Israeli retaliation against its territory or proxies following Tehran's missile attack onto Israel on Sunday. As such, Iran has allegedly removed senior Hezbollah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from Syria.

This comes amid US and European pressure onto Israel to respond in a way that prevents further escalation following Tehran's missile and drone attack over the weekend.

Reports citing Iranian officials said Wednesday claimed that that Iran is currently preparing its air force for potential strikes, and its navy would commence escorting Iranian commercial ships in the Red Sea.

Additionally, Tehran has initiated the evacuation of personnel from sites in Syria with a significant presence of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to Syrian and Iranian officials and advisers.

IRGC, HEZBOLLAH MID-RANKING OFFICERS RELOCATING
IRGC and Hezbollah's mid-ranking officers are relocating from their original positions within the country to various undocumented locations, as reported by the Wall Street Journal citing Syrian security officials.

On April 8, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah affirmed Iran's support for Hezbollah's "resistance" and declared that the presence of the IRGC in Syria and Lebanon dates back to 1982, following Israel's aggression towards Lebanon.

Hezbollah was on heightened alert during the Iranian attack over the weekend, expecting potential Israeli retaliation targeting its positions. However, it has since reduced its threat level, as it believes Israel is unlikely to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon in response to Iran's attack. Instead, Hezbollah has been advised by Iran to take precautionary measures in Syria, where Israel could target IRGC bases, warehouses, and Hezbollah posts.

Check out the Ynet website for major stories in addition to Ynet’s Breaking News includes reports on this story, including:

00:16
Israeli security sources confirm Israel attacked Iran targets
Israeli security officials confirmed to the New York Times early on Friday that an attack was made on Iran. Earlier Iranian sources said an airbase in the area of Isfahan came under attack. (Ynet)

Link

Israel-Palestine-Jordan

How Israel will respond: The Middle East is one step closer to a big war

2024-04-16

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semenov

[REGNUM] Iran launched multiple drones and missiles at Israel on Saturday evening. The strike was in response to an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, which killed several Iranian officers, including a senior general in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC). This event pushed the Middle East one step further towards a full-scale regional war.

Iranian officials said the shelling of Israel was launched to defend the Islamic Republic's "sovereignty and territorial integrity" and that the attack, which involved "dozens" of missiles and drones, targeted Israeli military bases.

"MISSION COMPLETE"
The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency described the retaliatory strike on Israel as a "multi-layered attack from four directions" that involved "hundreds of drones and a large number of missiles of various types." According to the agency, the attack involved the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Islamic Resistance of Iraq and the Houthis from the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement. Hezbollah, in particular, said it fired dozens of rockets at Israeli barracks in the Golan Heights.

“The mission is accomplished, the operation is over, and we have no intention of going further,” said Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, thereby removing any questions about the possible continuation of the attacks.

But if Israel decides to “ commit any action against us, whether on our territory or at our facilities in Syria and other places, the next operation will be larger,” the Iranian general emphasized.

The strikes themselves were larger than might have been expected. Tehran probably hopes that if Israel again decides to attack any Iranian targets in Syria, it will now think twice.

It is obvious that the IDF attacked the Iranian consulate on April 1 not in order to involve the United States in the conflict or for other complex combinations, but simply because Tel Aviv ceased to be aware of the consequences of any of its actions, without noticing how it crossed the red line, every for a week, inflicting more and more attacks on Syria, believing that it can continue to do this with impunity.

As much as the Iranian attack may be viewed by skeptics in terms of its military objectives, politically it has unprecedented significance.

Finally, the Iranian leadership has overcome its own fear of direct attacks on Israel and lifted some of the restrictions that it had once imposed on itself. There were fears that any attack could escalate into a region-wide conflict and into a full-scale war between Iran and Israel and the United States. This time, Tehran was obviously ready for any consequences and began to play for higher stakes.

Of course, the circumstances against which this attack took place were also important.

On the one hand, this is the benevolent attitude towards Iran of its former regional opponents in the person of the same Saudi Arabia. Riyadh, obviously, will not support any retaliatory actions by the United States and Israel against Iran and has already called on all parties to show restraint, although a few years ago it itself would not have been averse to joining in retaliatory strikes. Most Arab states, including Egypt and Qatar, took a similar position.

On the other hand, events in Gaza are forcing Iran to act more harshly and assertively than before. The “Arab” and even “Islamic” street is now more likely to be on the side of Tehran than against it, and any retaliatory actions by Israel and the United States could cause waves of protests in Arab countries calling on their governments to support the Islamic Republic, the only Muslim country that dared to challenge the direct challenge Israel and the US and support Gaza.

It is now obvious that the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, in addition to fierce resistance from Hamas itself, was also due to the Israeli command’s fears for its northern borders, where attacks by pro-Iranian forces were also expected. Another question is that nothing prevents the Israelis from returning and resuming the offensive on the same Rafah, but it will be conducted in much more difficult conditions, after losing control over other areas of Gaza.

In a word, Tehran should have taken advantage of the window of opportunity provided, and it took advantage of it.

But what is also obvious is that Iran carried out the attack in such a way as to leave the possibility for Israel to refrain from responding, at least if it directly concerns attacks on Iranian territory.

IRAN PROBABLY WARNED ISRAEL
In this context, interesting are reports that Tehran notified neighboring countries about the upcoming attack on Israel 72 hours before it began.

This was stated by the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry. In turn, Israeli officials, in response to questions from Arab media, neither confirmed nor denied that Iran had informed Israel about the nature and timing of its attack.

An independent expert in the field of conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, Anton Mardasov, agrees with this, who told Regnum news agency : “ On the one hand, Iran provided the maximum, essentially a limited strike with “special effects” - wave launches of loitering ammunition, drone illumination, boosters on cruise missiles, etc. On the other hand, Israel's allies not only received time to prepare ground infrastructure, but, obviously, information about timing for organizing air duty. The system of such “warning” is not new - it is known that during Iran’s last attack on an American base after the liquidation of Soleimani, information about the nature and time of the attack was transmitted to the United States through Iraqi and Qatari intermediaries.”

On Friday, just a day before the Iranian strike, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant and senior military officers met with the head of US Central Command at an airbase in Israel, where they discussed plans to defend Israel, as if they already knew the attack was imminent and when it would begin.

And ahead of the attack late Saturday, the Israeli military announced restrictions on public gatherings and school closures, and ordered people in the occupied Golan Heights in the north and several areas in the south to stay close to shelters.

Also on Saturday, Britain sent RAF planes and tankers to the Middle East to help intercept drone attacks. The fact that British pilots shot down “several” Iranian drones was confirmed on Sunday by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

In turn, US President Joe Biden condemned the “unprecedented” attack and said that US aircraft and two US destroyers, one of which Washington deployed to the region last week, helped intercept the attack.

"Through the deployment and exceptional skill of our troops, we helped Israel destroy nearly all incoming drones and missiles," Biden said.

France also provided assistance to Israel in repelling the attack.

RECONNAISSANCE IN FORCE
Israeli officials confirmed that Iran fired more than 300 air delivery vehicles, 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles. Israel also confirmed that Iran's regional allies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen also launched missiles and drones at Israel.

Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israeli military, said that 99 percent of the missiles and drones were intercepted. A Bedouin girl was seriously wounded by shrapnel in the south and an air force base "sustained minor damage" but there were no other reports of serious damage, he said.

However, the data presented by Israel seems to be largely exaggerated, especially when it comes to ballistic missiles.

Thus, on April 13-14, some of the drones and missiles were shot down by the American Air Force and air defense systems over Iraq, another part was shot down over Jordan by local air defense systems, US and British aviation, another part was intercepted by the IDF Air Force over Syria, and only then did Israeli layered air defense and missile defense systems operate.

"Arrow" is a long-range system focused primarily on intercepting ballistic missiles, followed by "David's Sling" - a medium-range anti-missile system, and next in line is "Iron Dome", designed to intercept missiles, including MLRS shells, shorter range. In addition, the American Patriot air defense systems are also in service with Israel.

Israel's entire missile defense/air defense system was created with direct assistance from the United States, which has provided $3.4 billion in funding for Israeli missile defense since 2009.

According to Mardasov, it is noteworthy that several missiles still managed to break through the defenses and hit the Nevatim base without causing significant damage to it, which, by the way, raises the question of the nature of the missiles equipped with warheads.

At the same time, the expert emphasizes, “ the Iranians not only gained experience in a massive attack and assessed in practice the real mechanism for connecting the United States, Great Britain, and Jordan to repel an attack, but also worked out purely technical actions - timing, formation routes, targeted cyber attacks, etc. ”

Also, as Mardasov noted, it is possible that the attack by some UAVs and missiles that were fired by Iranian proxy forces from Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon was more of a spontaneous support rather than a coordinated action.

By striking from its territory, Iran not only demonstrated its determination to directly attack Israel, but also actually diverted its allies along the “axis of resistance” from a serious Israeli counterattack on their positions.

However, their participation, albeit small and uncoordinated, could also enable Israel to respond to this attack without resorting directly to an attack on Iranian territory, thereby keeping the escalation under control without abandoning retaliatory actions.

Although this will contradict the rules of Tel Aviv, which, even if it takes asymmetrical retaliatory actions, their asymmetry is manifested precisely in more massive retaliation than the reason itself.

REPLY TO REPLY
American publications note that the Israeli Prime Minister allegedly refused a retaliatory strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

However, despite further conclusions that the White House managed to persuade Tel Aviv from retaliating, the fact that the emphasis was placed specifically on nuclear facilities makes us assume that the Israeli leadership is still considering the possibility of launching a strike directly on Iranian territory. but for other, non-nuclear facilities.

In addition, there may be other asymmetric response scenarios.

Earlier in a statement on Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to signal that a military response was likely: “ We have established a clear principle: whoever harms us, we will harm them. We will protect ourselves from any threat."

Netanyahu added that any response "will be measured."

Moreover, hardliners in Israel have already demanded drastic measures, and if Netanyahu abstains, he may lose his last allies.

“ We need a crushing attack [on Iran],” Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s ultranationalist minister of national security, wrote on social media.

It is also interesting that Israeli statements also included accusations against Iran of a different kind, namely that Tehran supplies Russia with weapons. These statements indicate a strengthening of the axis between Israel and its European and American allies.

“Iran’s attack on Israel, its threats against the United States and the supply of weapons to Russia threaten world peace,” said Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Lior Hayat.

NEW REALITY
Until now, Iran and Israel have avoided direct confrontation. Despite their long history of rivalry, the two countries have never engaged in a confrontation involving strikes launched from their own territory on their own behalf.

Although Western sources indicate that once - in 2018 - Iranian forces based in Syria opened fire on Israel in response to IDF shelling of Syrian territory. But even here, questions remain about the affiliation of these units, which most likely were not Iranian after all, but belonged to the IRGC-backed Shiite jihadist groups.

Therefore, the Middle East finds itself in a new reality, where all lines of development of escalation are now difficult to predict and at each turn there is a risk of “falling into a tailspin,” that is, into an uncontrollable spiral.

Indeed, until recently, the very possibility of a direct attack by Iran on Israeli territory seemed unlikely. Thus, the escalation has already reached a new critical level.

If Israel decides to strike at Iranian territory, this is the riskiest scenario, which could lead to an even more massive response from Tehran.

Iran will then most likely act without warning and strike in such a way as to make interception of targets more difficult rather than easier.

This could provoke a new stage of the “sea war,” as Iran has already made clear by seizing another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz in anticipation of the attack. It is also possible that Hezbollah will increase its activity on the northern borders of Israel and the Islamic Resistance of Iraq on the Golan.

At the same time, Israel, in response to the Iranian attack, can itself inflict more massive attacks on the Lebanese Hezbollah forces than before, avoiding an attack on Iranian territory.

In addition, Tel Aviv here may not limit itself to just air attacks, but launch a full-scale ground operation against Iranian allies, for which it has everything ready. This is what could have prompted Netanyahu to withdraw his troops from Gaza in order to use them in operations against Hezbollah.

NETANYAHU'S TWO TASKS
The specter of the October 7th attacks will continue to loom over Israel, and Hezbollah's military capabilities now appear to be a permanent sword raised over the Jewish state, ready to repeat October 7th on a larger scale.

Here Netanyahu solves two problems at once.

Namely, the prolongation of the activities of the military government, with which the very future of the Israeli prime minister is connected, seeking to avoid criminal prosecution and resignation, and a shift in emphasis from Gaza, where IDF operations have reached a dead end.

Now, in order to abandon plans for the complete destruction of Hamas, a weighty argument may arise in the form of the need to respond to Iranian attacks. Naturally, this option could lead to a new round of escalation and force Iran to more actively support its ally. And this already risks drawing Israel’s European and American allies into the conflict.

In addition, the issue of the attack on Rafah has not been removed from the agenda, despite the IDF’s withdrawal from Gaza.

Finally, another scenario could involve attacks on Iranian allies without the use of ground forces.

In themselves, limited strikes on Iranian proxies in the region are no longer something new, but this will avoid a new Iranian response if the Iranians themselves do not come under attack. But even the more massive nature of these attacks is unlikely to suit Tel Aviv as an “act of retaliation,” although it will avoid escalation, and, apparently, this is the response that the Americans and Europeans will try to persuade the Israelis to respond to.

***

In any case, it should be considered that from Iran's perspective, the question is whether the equation of escalation and de-escalation has fundamentally changed.

If the Iranians truly implement a new policy whereby from now on any Israeli strike against Iranian personnel and assets will be met with a significant direct response aimed at Israeli territory, perhaps a new formula for containing Israel is now being born, which, however, could lead the entire region to a full-scale conflict.

But in any case, the United States will likely encourage Israel to respond with restraint and make efforts to prevent an escalating regional war.

Link

Israel-Palestine-Jordan

Russian Delusion Watch: Russian news roundup on the Iranian attack on Israel

2024-04-15

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
Military experts explained the success of Iran's attack

Are they considered good military experts?

[Regnum] The attack on Israeli targets was successful due to the fact that Iran was able to competently break through the air defense system of this country. Military expert Mikhail Onufrienko expressed this opinion to a Regnum correspondent on April 14.

“Iran launched several hundred Shahed unmanned aerial vehicles in different directions, which overloaded the Israeli air defense system and forced it to expend most of its missiles on them. The second echelon was already moving ballistic missiles with multiple warheads. These are not hypersonic missiles, which Iran does not have in service. The Israeli “Iron Dome” turned out to be unsuitable for intercepting ballistic missiles with multiple warheads under conditions of great physical stress,” the military expert noted.

He added that this "dome" was created to protect against primitive missiles that were used in launches from the Gaza Strip. However, for more modern missiles its permeability has become obvious. This was clear several decades ago, when American Patriot systems tried to shoot down rather primitive Iranian missiles. Then the effectiveness of these systems was estimated at 43%. The Americans tried to interpret these figures, bringing them to 62%, but even in their interpretation, a third of the missiles passed through the air defense system.

Now the situation has changed. It became obvious that cheap drones are able to overload almost any air defense system. There is no air defense system that could completely ensure 100% impenetrability of any zone. Therefore, Israel, which is surrounded by opponents on all sides, should negotiate with them. Otherwise, even with US support, it can be destroyed or damaged to such an extent that it will not be able to function as a militarized state.

In turn, captain 1st rank reserve, military expert Vasily Dandykin pointed out that there were conflicting reports about the course of events. The Israeli side claims that 99% of Iranian missiles and drones were shot down, which is similar to the rhetoric of the Kyiv regime, which also claimed the almost complete destruction of Russian missiles by Ukrainian air defenses, despite the fact that the Russian Armed Forces are effectively hitting Ukrainian targets. The Iranian side claims that there were successful hits on the target.

“Most likely, the ballistic missiles were indeed successful, bypassing Israeli air defenses, which are considered one of the best in the world. The Iranian attack was massive, more than 300 products were used, and not all of them were intercepted by Israel. Even the most modern air defense system can miss the target during a massive attack. Perhaps because of Israeli air defense, Iran's strikes were not as effective as he had hoped. Ballistic missiles had a chance of breaking through Israel’s Iron Dome, since they move at high speed,” explained the military expert.

As Regnum reported, Middle East expert Mais Kurbanov noted that with its massive attack, Iran dispelled the myth about the invincibility of Israel's air defense system.

Fascinating. Do go on.

He stressed that the strikes against Israel were Iran's legitimate right to self-defense. On April 1, Israel destroyed the Iranian consulate in Damascus with its missile attack. Among the dead were two generals of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Mohammad Hadi Haji, and five more representatives of this military formation were also killed in the attack.

As Kurbanov noted, Israel believed that it had the most advanced air defense system in the world. However, Iran achieved its goals; it did not attack civilians. Iran's target was a military base, and it hit it. According to Israeli experts, the Iranian attack cost the Israeli economy about $1.5 billion, and this despite the fact that Iran used less than one percent of its arsenal.

That’s two percent, if the 50% failure rate is consistent across Iran’s entire supply.

Iran launched a massive attack on Israel using more than 200 missiles and attack drones. It lasted at least five hours and was a response to an Israeli military strike on the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. The Israeli army, in turn, attacked targets of the Shiite organization Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said that Tehran informed neighboring states about the upcoming attack on Israel three days before it began.

The head of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, noted that Iran’s operation against Israel has been completed, but the Armed Forces of the republic are ready to act in the future if necessary.

The Russian Foreign Ministry, in a statement after Iran’s attack on Israel, expressed concern about the dangerous escalation of the situation in the Middle East and called on all parties to show restraint. The agency recalled that the Iranian authorities called the attack an exercise of the right to self-defense and a response to the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Russia strongly condemned the attack on the consulate, but because of the position of the West, the UN Security Council did not do so, the Foreign Ministry emphasized.

NATO calls for restraint after Iran's attack on Israel. Iran's Foreign Ministry has summoned the ambassadors of Britain, Germany and France following a massive attack on Israel.

The American television channel CNN reported that Israel will respond to a massive attack by Iran, but the scale and parameters of the response have not yet been determined.

White House adviser John Kirby said the United States does not want to expand the escalation in the Middle East after Iran's massive strikes on Israel.

Minister without portfolio in the narrow military cabinet Benny Gantz said Israel intends to create a regional coalition against the Iranian threat and respond to the attack at the appropriate time and in an appropriate manner.

More from regnum.ru
Orientalist Kurbanov: Iran has dispelled the myth of the invincibility of Israeli air defense
With its massive attack, Iran dispelled the myth of the invincibility of Israel's air defense system. This opinion was expressed to a Regnum correspondent on April 14 by an expert on the Middle East, Mais Kurbanov.

He stressed that the strikes against Israel were Iran's legitimate right to self-defense.

On April 1, Israel destroyed the Iranian consulate in Damascus with its missile attack. Among the dead were two generals of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Mohammad Hadi Haji, and five more representatives of this military formation were also killed in the attack.

“Many thought that Iran would not respond to an attack by Israel, since the latter has nuclear arsenals and is backed by the United States and Europe. But Iran saw how the Americans left Afghanistan and Iraq. It became clear that they were no longer a force. The Iranian leadership is well aware that if it does not respond to aggression, Israel may take further steps. Iran warned Israel in advance about the response to the attack, thereby giving it the opportunity to prepare for it. As a result of the night operation, Iran checked the operation of its drones, assessed their vulnerability and accuracy of hitting the target,” the orientalist noted.

As the expert noted, Israel believed that it had the most advanced air defense system in the world. However, Iran achieved its goals; it did not attack civilians. Iran's target was a military base, and it hit it. According to Israeli experts, the Iranian attack cost the Israeli economy about $1.5 billion, and this despite the fact that Iran used less than one percent of its arsenal.

Iran has dispelled the myth of the invincibility of Israel's air defense system. Despite the fact that American and European fighter jets were scrambled to counter the drones, the Iranian drones reached their target. Iran has shown that it can give an answer to everyone. Together with Russia, he is taking big steps to create a multipolar world, Kurbanov added.

As Regnum reported, Iran launched a massive attack on Israel using more than 200 missiles and attack drones. It lasted at least five hours and was a response to an Israeli military strike on the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. The Israeli army, in turn, attacked targets of the Shiite organization Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The head of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, noted that Iran’s operation against Israel has been completed, but the Armed Forces of the republic are ready to act in the future if necessary.

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that Washington is holding back the Middle East conflict, unlike the Ukrainian one, due to possible damage to its own interests. According to him, the death of people in Gaza worsens the prospects of US President Joe Biden in the upcoming elections, and due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, uncertainty is growing.

The Russian Foreign Ministry, in a statement after Iran’s attack on Israel, expressed concern about the dangerous escalation of the situation in the Middle East and called on all parties to show restraint. The agency recalled that the Iranian authorities called the attack an exercise of the right to self-defense and a response to the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Russia strongly condemned the attack on the consulate, but because of the position of the West, the UN Security Council did not do so, the Foreign Ministry emphasized.

NATO calls for restraint after Iran's attack on Israel. Iran's Foreign Ministry has summoned the ambassadors of Britain, Germany and France following a massive attack on Israel.

The American television channel CNN reported that Israel will respond to a massive attack by Iran, but the scale and parameters of the response have not yet been determined.

Russian political scientist, historian, expert on the problems of the Middle East and Central Asia, Semyon Bagdasarov, noted that if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decides to retaliate against Iran’s nuclear facilities, Tehran may take more powerful actions against Israel. Iran has significantly more powerful weapons, such as the Kheibar Shekan missiles with a range of 1,450 kilometers and warheads weighing 550 kilograms, he added.

More from regnum.ru
Head of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces: if Israel responds, the next attack will be larger
Iran will respond with redoubled force if Israel takes any action on Iranian soil. The head of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, announced thisto the Tasnim agency on April 14.

According to him, if Israel responds to the operation that Iran carried out on the night of April 14, then the next response will be much broader and larger-scale.

As noted by the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, Iran's operation against Israel was more successful than expected.

“Our reaction to any aggression from Israel will be more severe,” the Iranian Press TV channel reports his words.

As reported by Regnum news agency, Bagheri previously said that Iran’s operation against Israel has been completed, but the Armed Forces of the republic are ready to act in the future if necessary.

On the night of April 14, Iran launched a massive attack on Israel using more than 200 missiles and attack drones. It lasted at least five hours and was a response to an Israeli military strike on the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. The Israeli army, in turn, attacked targets of the Shiite organization Hezbollah in Lebanon.

On April 1, the Israeli Air Force launched a missile attack on the Iranian Consulate General in Damascus. The building was completely destroyed. Several people died on the spot, among whom were two generals of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

Related from regnum.ru
Syria declares Iran's right to self-defense if it attacks Israel
Iran attacked Israel as part of its right to self-defense. This was stated on April 14 in a statement by the Syrian Foreign Ministry, which was published by the SANA agency.

“The Iranian strikes on Israeli military targets took place within the framework of Iran’s exercise of the right of self-defense and in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter,” the Syrian Foreign Ministry said.

It is noted that Syria expresses solidarity with Iran.
Duh!
As Regnum reported, on April 14, the country's President Ibrahim Raisi said that the strikes on Israel were Iran's legitimate right to self-defense. He stressed that the operation was prepared and executed in response to Israeli aggressive actions against Iranian targets and interests, and especially in response to the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus.

Iran's Permanent Mission to the UN stated that the strike against Israel was carried out in accordance with Article 51 of the Charter of the world organization on the right to self-defense.

On the night of April 14, Iran launched a massive attack on Israel using several hundred missiles and attack drones. It was a response to an Israeli military strike on the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus and lasted, according to US authorities, at least five hours.

The head of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, noted that Iran’s operation against Israel has been completed, but the armed forces of the republic are ready to act in the future if necessary.

More from regnum.ru
Iraq called Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel legitimate
Iran's attack on Israel is a natural right and a response guaranteed by international law. This was announced on April 14 by the acting speaker of the Iraqi House of Representatives, Mohsen al-Mandalawi.

“The response of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the attack on its consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus is its natural and legitimate right, guaranteed by international law and laws,” al-Mandalawi said.

According to him, Israel has crossed all red lines, violating the sovereignty of several countries, which is reflected in the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

As Regnum reported, on April 14, the country's President Ibrahim Raisi said that the strikes on Israel were Iran's legitimate right to self-defense. He stressed that the operation was prepared and executed in response to Israeli aggressive actions against Iranian targets and interests, and especially in response to the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus.

Iran's Permanent Mission to the UN stated that the strike against Israel was carried out in accordance with Article 51 of the Charter of the world organization on the right to self-defense.

Iran attacked Israel within the framework of the right of self-defense and in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, the Syrian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

On the night of April 14, Iran launched a massive attack on Israel using several hundred missiles and attack drones. It was a response to an Israeli military strike on the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus and lasted, according to US authorities, at least five hours.

Link

Israel-Palestine-Jordan

IDF: Israeli Air Force is on alert, dozens of aircraft are in the sky

2024-04-14

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] Rear Admiral and head of the press service of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Daniel Hagari said on April 13 that the defense and attack systems of the country's Air Force are on alert - dozens of aircraft are in the sky. He told reporters about this at a briefing.

According to Hagari, the IDF assessed the situation and agreed on plans to prepare for an attack from Iran.

“We are assessing the situation with our strategic partners, primarily the United States, and maintaining close coordination with them,” Hagari assured.

As Regnum reported, the United States assumes that Iran may attack Israeli territory in response to the attack on its consulate in Syrian Damascus in the early morning of April 14, Al Jazeera warned, citing a representative of the American administration.

On April 13, US President Joseph Biden interrupted his day off and returned from his residence in Delaware to the White House due to the worsening situation in the Middle East. He intends to hold consultations with his national security aides, the American leader noted in the pool.

On the evening of April 1, the Syrian Ministry of Defense announced an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate building in Damascus. According to a source in the Iranian publication Tasnim, at least five people were killed and 12 more were injured in the attack. One of the dead was a commander from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi promised on April 2 to respond to Israel's attack on the consulate. He condemned the actions of the Israeli military and called them an “inhumane” attack, as well as a clear violation of international law.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

ISNA: Nine types of Iranian missiles are capable of reaching targets in Israel

2024-04-08

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

[Regnum] Iran produces nine types of missiles with a range sufficient to reach targets in Israel, ISNA reported.

"After the crime of the Zionist regime, which was the attack on the Iranian consulate building in Damascus, Iran’s response to this crime will cast a shadow on Israel," the journalists said.
Iran is the place where embassies are liable to be "occupied" or otherwise by government street gangs.
The publication provided an infographic depicting nine missiles produced in Iran. The list includes ballistic missiles "Sajil", "Kheibar", "Emad", "Shahab-3", "Ghadr", "Pave", "Fattah-2", "Kheibar Shekan" and "Haj Qassem".

As Regnum reported, on the evening of April 1, the Israeli Air Force launched a missile attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. One of the leaders of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, was among those killed in the strike. Tasnim news agency reported that five people were killed and 12 injured in an Israeli airstrike on the consulate.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry warned that Tehran reserves the right to take countermeasures and respond to the attack. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressed Israel in Hebrew, threatening retaliation for the attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria.

The Russian Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. First Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN, Dmitry Polyansky, said on April 2 that Russia requested an open meeting of the UN Security Council after the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov, in turn, said that the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus is a violation of international law and an act of aggression. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that it would be interesting to see what would happen if Iran hypothetically attacked the American embassy in Israel.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Tasnim: Iranian court confiscates oil from Advantage Sweet tanker en route to US

2024-03-07

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] The International Court of Tehran ruled to confiscate the cargo from the American tanker Advantage Sweet, detained by Iran in April 2023, at the request of patients with epidermolysis bullosa, the Iranian Tasnim agency reported.

According to journalists, the court considered the claim of those suffering from a rare hereditary skin disease against the United States.

…8.2 cases per million live births in America, What does that have to do with Iran?

Due to American sanctions prohibiting the import of medicines into Iran, they lost the opportunity to receive special bandages and medicines from Sweden. The court, having considered the complaint, issued a warrant for the confiscation of American oil transported by the tanker. The ship was arrested by court order.

American oil cannot possibly be an alternative treatment.

As Regnum reported, in April 2023, the US Central Command announced the detention of the Advantage Sweet tanker in the Gulf of Oman by the Iranian navy. Tehran confirmed the detention of the vessel, saying it crashed into an Iranian ship, killing two crew members.

In January 2024, the Iranian Navy detained the tanker St. Nikolas. The ship was previously named Suez Rajan. In 2023, he was detained by the US Navy and seized a million barrels of Iranian oil transported in circumvention of US sanctions.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Syrian Ministry of Defense: Israeli airstrikes killed civilians

2024-01-30

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] As a result of airstrikes carried out by the Israeli Air Force on a number of positions south of the Syrian capital Damascus, several civilians were killed, the Syrian Defense Ministry announced on January 29.

It is noted that on January 29, Israel committed “air aggression from the occupied Syrian Golan Heights,” striking a number of points south of Damascus.

“As a result, several civilians were killed and injured, and some property damage was caused,” the statement said.

As Regnum reported, on January 20, the Al Hadath TV channel, citing medical sources in Damascus, reported that at least ten civilians were killed when the Israeli Air Force struck a residential area in the west of the Syrian capital Damascus. It was noted that the attack hit one of the houses on Mezze Avenue, which is located near the Iranian Embassy.

On January 2, the Syrian Ministry of Defense announced an Israeli air strike on Damascus. The defense department then clarified that the strikes were carried out early in the morning from the Golan Heights on “a number of positions in the suburbs of Damascus”, causing material damage.

The Times of Israel adds:

Iranian media describes site as an IRGC military advisory facility on outskirts of Syrian capital; war monitor puts toll at seven; no comment from IDF

Syrian state media said on Monday that "a number of Iranian advisers" were killed in an alleged Israeli attack south of the capital, in a rare acknowledgment by Damascus of Iranian casualties in strikes on Syrian territory attributed to Israel.

It also said non-combatants were killed but did not give a figure for either set of fatalities. Iran’s ambassador to Syria had earlier said there were no Iranian casualties in the strike.

The pro-government Dama Post said the strike hit the area of Sayida Zeinab without providing further details.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britannia-based opposition-linked war monitor, put the corpse count at seven; however, its figures have sometimes proved unreliable.

"Israeli strikes targeted a base belonging to Hezbollah and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, killing seven people" including pro-Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate ~~Jews~~ ~~Zionists~~ Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
fighters, said Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the SOHR, raising an earlier toll of six.

According to SOHR, among those killed were four Syrians, one of whom was the bodyguard of a member of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. It did not give the nationalities of the others and noted that it was unclear whether civilians were among the dead.

A source in Iran’s regional alliance also told Rooters that the strike hit a location used by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. The semi-official Tasnim news agency described the site as an Iranian military advisory center in Syria.

An official with one of the Iranian-backed groups, speaking on condition of anonymity
... for fear of being murdered...
because he was not authorized to discuss military activities, told the News Agency that Dare Not be Named that two Syrian citizens were killed in Monday’s strike. No Hezbollah members were hurt, the official said.

An Israeli military spokesperson declined to comment on the earth-shattering kabooms. The IDF rarely comments on alleged strikes in Syria.

The strike is the third in two months blamed on Israel and targeting Iranian infrastructure and officers in Damascus.

On January 20 an alleged Israeli strike on Damascus killed the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence chief for Syria and his deputy as well as two other Guards members.

In December, senior IRGC officer Brig. Gen. Razi Mousavi was killed in an alleged Israeli ~~Arclight~~ airstrike
<del>Arclight</del> airstrike

...KABOOM!...
in Damascus, drawing Iranian threats of retaliatory action.

Recent weeks have also seen several alleged sorties carried out against sites in Syria as part of Israel’s ongoing efforts to prevent Iran from supplying arms to its proxy Hezbollah, which has stepped up attacks on northern Israel over the past several months amid the ongoing war in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with an iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Shiite troops attack a US military base in al-Shaddadi in southern Syria, IDF bombs sites around Damascus

2024-01-30

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] Shiite detachments, which are part of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq movement, fired at a US military base in al-Shaddadi in southern Syria. Al Jazeera TV channel reports this

It is noted that several missiles were fired at an American base in the Syrian province of Hasakah.

At the same time, the Tasnim agency reports that the Israeli Air Force attacked a suburb of the Syrian city of Seyida Zeinab. According to the publication, the headquarters of Iranian advisers Al-Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is located there. Previously, Israel launched three missile attacks on a military facility. In addition, the Israeli military attacked a Shiite camp in the Aqraba area near Damascus, Tasnim added.

Local media also reported explosions that were heard in the Syrian capital. The capital's Sham FM radio informed about the work of Syria's air defense systems.

As Regnum reported, on the same day the SAR Ministry of Defense announced that as a result of airstrikes carried out by the Israeli Air Force on a number of positions south of the Syrian capital of Damascus, several civilians were killed.

The department then noted that on January 29, Israel committed “air aggression from the occupied Syrian Golan Heights,” striking a number of points south of Damascus.

Earlier, on January 20, the Al Hadath television channel, citing medical sources in Damascus, reported that at least ten civilians were killed when the Israeli Air Force struck a residential area in the west of the Syrian capital Damascus. It was noted that the attack hit one of the houses on Mezze Avenue, which is located near the Iranian Embassy.

Prior to this, on January 2, the Syrian Ministry of Defense announced an air strike on Damascus by Israel. The defense department then clarified that the strikes were carried out early in the morning from the Golan Heights on “a number of positions in the suburbs of Damascus”, causing material damage.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

IRGC seizes foreign tanker carrying 2 million liters of fuel

2024-01-29

[Jpost] Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it had seized an oil tanker carrying two million liters of fuel in the Persian Gulf off the coast of southwestern Iran, Iranian media reported on Sunday.

According to the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, the vessel was carrying the flag of a country in Oceania, although it did not clarify which country's flag this was.

The vessel, which was staffed by 14 foreign crew members from two Asian countries, was seized by the IRGC about 60 miles off the coast of Bushehr, a port city in southwestern Iran.

The IRGC claimed that the fuel was being smuggled illegally. The fuel was transferred to the National Petroleum Refining and Distribution Company of Bushehr province after it was seized by the IRGC.

RECENT TANKER SEIZURES BY IRAN
Earlier this month, the Iranian Navy said that it had seized an oil tanker that had been seized last year by the US. The oil tanker, called the Suez Rajan by Iran and the St Nikolas by the US, was seized by Iran in the Gulf of Oman.

In December, the IRGC seized two oil tankers carrying about 4.5 million liters of fuel, claiming that the tankers were smuggling fuel.

Link

India-Pakistan

Iran and Pakistan exchanged missile strikes. What to expect next

2024-01-19

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semeno

[REGNUM] On January 18, Islamabad said its forces had launched "a series of well-coordinated and targeted precision military strikes" against Iran's southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan province in an operation called Marg Bar Sarmachar. This broadly translates to “death to the partisans.”

"Several" militants were killed during the operation, Pakistan's foreign ministry added.

Islamabad also noted that in recent years it has expressed concern to Tehran about “shelters and shelters” in Iran for Pakistani Baloch separatists, whom Pakistan calls “Sarmachar.” The Pakistani authorities, as they themselves claim, wanted the Iranian side to share data regarding the presence and activities of these militants.

“Sarmachar” refers to two groups, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), that are fighting for greater regional autonomy for Pakistani Balochistan, even to the point of granting it independence from Pakistan. At the same time, their militants often commit terrorist acts and kill journalists.

ISLAMABAD'S "MIRROR RESPONSE"
Pakistan's actions are a "mirror response" to Iran's attacks on Pakistani soil two days earlier.

On Tuesday evening, January 16, Iran's IRGC forces allegedly attacked the headquarters of the Jaysh al-Adl movement in Pakistan. This group conducts its anti-government activities in the province of Sistan and Baluchistan in Iran, seeking to transform this region into an independent Islamic emirate.

The Pakistani government strongly condemned Tehran's actions and said the strikes killed two children and wounded three others.

“ What is even more alarming is that this illegal act occurred despite the existence of multiple channels of communication between Pakistan and Iran, ” the Pakistan Foreign Ministry said. “ Pakistan has always said that terrorism is a common threat to all countries in the region, which requires coordinated action.”

The Pakistani Foreign Ministry recalled the ambassador from Iran, and Islamabad stated that it reserves the right to retaliate. And, as you can see, these measures did not take long to arrive.

In turn, Tehran has now expressed protest against Pakistan’s “anti-terrorist operation” on its own territory. According to the Iranian Tasnim agency, Pakistan's charge d'affaires in Tehran was summoned to the Iranian Foreign Ministry after a missile strike on the territory of the Islamic Republic.

“A Pakistani diplomat was summoned to the ministry in the absence of the ambassador (as the ambassador was recalled for consultations after the Iranian attacks) to give an explanation regarding several explosions in areas near the city of Serawan in the province of Sistan and Baluchistan that occurred earlier today,” the report said.

Thus, we can say that Tehran, with its great-power ambitions, has finally met with an equally ambitious regional player in the person of Islamabad, and at the same time possessing nuclear weapons.

Pakistan, unlike many neighboring countries that have suffered to one degree or another from Iran’s actions, did not wait to respond and was not afraid of a possible escalation.

Another question is that such Pakistani-Iranian disagreements can, if the parties wish, be resolved quickly enough, since both countries are China’s closest partners, with which they are closely connected not only economically, but also military-politically. Islamabad, however, is larger, Tehran somewhat smaller.

In general, it cannot be ruled out that Pakistan’s retaliatory actions were carried out under the control of Beijing and could even be coordinated with Tehran. But we will know about this only by how Iran ultimately responds to Pakistani attacks.

In addition, both Pakistan and Iran are members of the SCO and the Organization has a good reason to remind itself and its security dimension in the form of the SCO anti-terrorist center in Tashkent. The SCO could invite both countries to develop a certain algorithm for joint actions against terrorist and separatist Baloch groups that use the territories of Pakistan and Iran for attacks from both sides of the border.

HOT BALOCHISTAN
The territory of Baluchistan, a geographical region inhabited by the Baluchis, one of the Indo-European peoples, is divided between Pakistan and Iran. In these territories there are various groups seeking independence from Islamabad and Tehran, respectively. Moreover, these movements are often sponsored by external forces.

Thus, Iran previously, before normalizing relations with Riyadh, accused Saudi Arabia of supporting Sunni jihadist groups present in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan.

At the moment, a whole mosaic of various Sunni formations is still active there. Most of them arose from the foundations of the leading rebel faction of Iranian Balochistan, Jundallah, which was never able to recover from the defeat in 2010-2011.

It should be noted that the leader of Jundallah himself, Abdulmalik Rigi, rejected accusations that Jundallah is a radical Salafi organization.

“We’re not radical,” he said. “We’re correct. It’s just that everyone else is lax or straight-up heretical. Dunno why they all call us taqfiris.”

Its closest analogue before the split was the Afghan Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation), which adheres to Hanafi jurisprudence and Maturidi theology, traditional for the region.

Nowadays, Jaysh al-Adl, close to Jundallah and founded by its former members, is among the most active Sunni jihadist groups in Iranian Balochistan.

There are also other anti-government groups operating in Iranian Balochistan. Such as “Harakat Ansar al Iran”, renamed “Harakat al Ansar” - also a “splinter” of “Jundallah”, part of which merged with another independent Islamist Baloch faction “Hizb al Furqan” into a new structure - “Ansar al Furqan”. However, the activity of this group began to decline after the death of its leader Hisham Azizi in 2015.

It’s been a while since we used the Toad the Wet Sprocket analogy.

In turn, secular nationalist groups of Baloch separatists with a left-wing Marxist bias, such as the Balochistan Liberation Front and the Baluchistan Liberation Army, are active in Pakistan. They also, according to the Pakistani authorities, enjoy the protection of external forces, primarily India.

Pakistan would say that.

During their first stage of activity in the 70s of the last century, they fought not only against Pakistan, but also against Iran. And only in the 2000s did they completely refocus on the confrontation with Islamabad. It is likely that the FOB and AOB were able to maintain their secret bases on Iranian territory, ceasing the fight with Tehran, so as not to further irritate the Iranian authorities.

On the other hand, it is obvious that the attacks on the secret cells of Jaysh al-Adl by Iran were largely in the nature of a PR campaign and were not aimed at suppressing terrorist activity.

They were supposed to demonstrate that Iran has become a full-fledged regional power that is capable of suppressing any threats in neighboring states. And thereby putting it on a par with the United States or Israel, which also act against any hostile forces outside their territory.

*Snicker*

ECHO OF GAZA
But in any case, it should be borne in mind that the current Iran-Pakistan escalation is associated with Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip.

“Doze Juices made us do it!”

The events of October 7 thus became a trigger for regional escalation, which is already extending beyond the Middle East.

It is unlikely that Iran would launch strikes on the territory of Pakistan, where, according to Tehran, Jaish al-Adl terrorists are hiding, if it were not for the need to respond to the actions of the United States and Israel, which killed IRGC officers in Damascus and the leaders of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq.

So they killed a couple of Pakistani tribals? How does that punish The Two Satans?

Also, according to Iran, they directed the actions of the terrorist group ISIS (banned in the Russian Federation) during the terrorist attack in Kerman. All this was a consequence of growing tensions between Iran, on the one hand, and the United States and Israel, on the other, due to the events in Gaza.

Oy.

But against this background, Iran had to somehow demonstrate its readiness to suppress threats from another direction, namely from Pakistani Baluchistan, from where jihadist militants infiltrated into the country and committed terrorist attacks. In this case, an Iranian strike on “friendly” Iraq while ignoring the response in the direction of Pakistan could cause even greater misunderstanding in Baghdad.

It must be really interesting inside their heads...

Iraq, despite its close ties with the Islamic Republic, filed a complaint against the actions of its neighbor to the UN Security Council.

Client kitten bares claws?

However, it is unlikely that Iran's actions will lead to anything more serious. Of course, tensions in the region will increase, but Tehran’s actions themselves are more likely aimed at the domestic Iranian audience. It should have no doubt that the Islamic Republic is ready to destroy its opponents along the perimeter of the country's borders and is not afraid to do this by striking American and Israeli targets.

Did they find their targets by tracking the spy squirrels?

Another question is, are the places where the Iranian missiles fell really the CIA and Mossad bases from where attacks on Iran were coordinated, or were they simply declared so by the IRGC itself?

To ask the question is to answer it.

The same applies to Jaysh al-Adl cells in Pakistan.

The bottom line is that the result of the Iranian attacks on Iraq was the murder of the Kurdish tycoon Peshrav Zeya, who, if the Iranians are to be believed again, was a Mossad agent, but it is not possible to verify or refute this.

Thus, Tehran’s algorithm of actions is as follows:

First, blame the terrorist attack in Kerman on the United States and Israel, which allegedly manage and direct ISIS terrorists. Then take revenge for this terrorist attack by targeting some CIA and Mossad bases in Iraq, which, by the way, neither the United States nor Israel consider their targets. Iran itself declared them as such, and therefore the United States will not take retaliatory actions. Which is exactly what Tehran needed.

All this fits well within the framework of a resonant response that would not lead to a regional war that Iran does not need.

Ouch.

At the same time, the initial story about the alleged complete destruction of the American consulate in Erbil as a result of an Iranian strike with the corresponding footage was most likely made deliberately. For many in the Middle East, this fake story began to take on a life of its own as evidence that it is not only the Houthis who are capable of challenging the United States.

Even though the destruction never happened, those perfidious Yanks being entirely too facile with their anti-drone technology. But reality is not really a factor in that part of the world, poor darlings.

Resonance was all Tehran needed in this situation.

But it is obvious that in the case of Pakistan, Iran did not calculate the reaction. Pakistan has never been afraid to escalate with the much stronger India, and certainly will not retreat in front of Iran.

But at the same time, Tehran itself is by no means eager to enter into confrontation with Islamabad, opening up another front for itself. Therefore, the question is whether Iran will be able not to “follow the principle” and not respond with blows to blows, taking the escalation to a new level.

Interesting times. Especially for the Mad Mullahs, who aren’t getting any of the wars they want.

Link

Iraq

Drone attacked an American base in Iraqi Kurdistan, media reports.

2024-01-19

Direct Translation via Google Translate.
[Regnum] The American base, which is located near the Erbil air harbor in Iraqi Kurdistan, was attacked using a drone, Al Arabiya TV channel reported on January 18.

At the US Consulate, due to the drone attack, sirens went off, and near the airport, local residents heard the sounds of explosions, the material notes.

As reported by Regnum news agency, a series of explosions occurred in the Iraqi city of Erbil on the night of January 15-16. The explosions occurred near the US consulate and international airport in northern Iraq.

The IRGC later reported that Iran had fired 24 ballistic missiles at targets in Iraq and Syria. Four Khyber Breaker missiles were fired from Khuzestan province at ISIS positions in the Idlib region. The Iranian military launched another nine missiles at positions of “terrorist groups” in other areas of Syria.

In addition, four missiles from the west and seven missiles from the north-west of Iran were fired at the Mossad headquarters in Iraqi Kurdistan, the IRGC added. Iraqi authorities complained about aggression from Iran in an appeal to the UN Security Council.

The Tasnim agency previously reported that after the IRGC strikes on Erbil, the Chairman of the Security Council of the Democratic Party of Iraqi Kurdistan, Suleiman Amin Nader, could have been killed. The material states that Nader was one of the key figures in Iraqi Kurdistan, collaborated with Israeli intelligence, and also participated in organizing the terrorist attack that killed Iranian physicist and researcher at the Iranian Ministry of Defense Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

Link

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