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| The Grand Turk |
| Visit to Erdogan: what will Putin be offered in Ankara |
| 2024-02-07 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Kamran Hasanov [REGNUM] Vladimir Putin's visit to Turkey, planned for February, became one of the key events in international politics even before it began. Until recently, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was hardly behind Alexander Lukashenko in the frequency of meetings with the Russian leader. This is despite the fact that Turkey is a NATO country, and Belarus is in a military-political and economic union with Russia. After the start of the SVO, the Turkish leader began to lag behind “Batka”. The reasons are clear. On the one hand, in wartime conditions the already high security requirements increased by an order of magnitude. On the other hand, it is not easy for Ankara to choose between the West and Ukraine on the one hand and Russia on the other. But what still unites Erdogan and Lukashenko is that it was Minsk and Istanbul that became the first platforms for attempts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. Despite his difficult situation related to NATO membership and economic dependence on the West, Recep Erdogan found opportunities to meet with the Russian president. Last September he himself came to Sochi. Then he was unable to agree on the “grain deal”; mediation on Ukraine was also frozen due to the hype around the “counter-offensive”. But decisions were made on the gas hub and alternatives to the “grain deal” were discussed. And joint projects in trade and energy not only remained intact, but also increased in volume. Trade turnover amounted to over $60 billion, and the prospect of construction by Russian forces of another Turkish nuclear power plant in Sinop loomed ahead. Even if Turkey tries to adhere to “multi-vector”, relations between our countries are often influenced by the totality of events and their context. We remember the tense negotiations on Syria in March 2020, when the “Crossing the Balkans” figurine flaunted behind the presidents’ backs, reminiscent of the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, the memory of which is sacred to Erdogan. One can also recall the lateness of one or the other president to negotiations. There were also funny moments - probably the most memorable was how Putin treated his colleague to ice cream at the MAKS-2019 air show. The specificity of our countries is that they both have historical and geopolitical ambitions in the adjacent regions of the Caucasus, Balkans, Middle East, Mediterranean and Black Sea. This alone can cause conflicts, which countries have felt most clearly in Syria. And on top of these ambitions is another important variable—Turkey’s relations with its NATO partners. As during the Sochi meeting, the Western factor can bring some negativity. Two months before Sochi, Erdogan gave the go-ahead for Sweden to join NATO, lobbied for Ukraine to join NATO and extradited to the latter militants of Azov, which is banned in Russia (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation). This time, “gifts” also arrived from the Turkish side. Turkey's ruling party ratified Sweden's entry into NATO, and a certain rapprochement with the West immediately emerged. Last week, the EU took two steps forward - it invited Turkey to the transport corridor from Central Asia and, at the level of foreign ministers, outlined its intention to improve relations with Ankara. Dependent on Western investment and trade, Turkey needs normal relations with European and American political elites: they create a favorable investment climate. International rating agencies Standard & Poor's (S&P) and Moody's have upgraded Turkey's credit rating from stable to positive and expect inflation to slow from 65% to 45% by the end of the year. The Americans are also giving positive signals, promising not today or tomorrow to hand over F-16 fighters and, under certain conditions, to return Turkey to the F-35 development program. Positive relations with the EU and the US are certainly important for crisis-ridden Turkey. However, as practice has shown, the drift towards the West does not result in a “turn to the West”, and various “unpleasant things” turn out to be unable to upset the positive balance between Dolmabahce and the Kremlin. At the Sochi meeting, the two leaders, according to Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov, did not even discuss the “sensitive topic” of the transfer of Ukrainian militants to Kiev. The presidents focused on positive topics such as nuclear power plants, gas pipes and the supply of 1 million tons of grain to be milled in Turkey and sent from there to poor countries in Africa. On the controversial topic of the grain corridor, which is of great concern to Turkey, Erdogan even expressed an understanding of the reasons for Russia’s withdrawal from the deal. The topics outlined at the last face-to-face meeting remain relevant today. Erdogan will again try to raise the topic of the “grain deal”, seeking the implementation of at least an alternative plan for the export of Russian products with financing from Qatar. Specific details are possible regarding the construction of a new nuclear power plant in Sinop. On the issue of trade, it is important to develop mechanisms to overcome Western sanctions and establish mutual payments, including using rubles and liras. Nowhere without geopolitics. Putin and Erdogan will not ignore the topic of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Both Russia and Turkey want normalization on their borders and do not intend to let NATO in. The topic of the Middle East is also very relevant. Both Turkey and Russia support the creation of a Palestinian state and are alarmed by the expansion of hostilities involving the Houthis, Iran, the United States and Britain. Ukraine remains the most important and interesting topic for Russia. Erdogan, through the media, has already tested the ground several times for Ankara’s return to the mediation mission. Turkish journalists wrote about their leader's new proposal. And this is really more than rumors. A month ago, Erdogan himself offered Zelensky mediation, and after that he said that Putin intended to complete the special operation “as soon as possible.” Assistant to the Russian President Yuri Ushakov confirmed that Ukraine will become one of the main topics of negotiations. Thus, we can say with confidence that the upcoming meeting of the presidents is not just a return guest visit, although any trip by Putin abroad, especially to a NATO country, is a sensation. Putin and Erdogan have a lot to discuss and decide. Judging by how the West is putting pressure on Turkey and how poorly things are going for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the theater of operations, the results of the negotiations are of great intrigue. Erdogan will most likely cope with Western pressure. Winking at Europe and the United States, he gets closer to their opponents. He recently met with his Iranian counterpart Ibrahim Raisi and agreed to fight terrorism, hinting at Kurdish separatism. Contacts with the Gulf countries are being actively promoted. There are even hints of recognition of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. But with the mediation mission everything is much more complicated. The Turkish leader's desire alone is not enough. The West does not stop stuffing Ukraine with weapons and is moving on a “war footing.” Nevertheless, in any case, Erdogan will present the meeting with Putin as a new step in Turkey’s efforts to end the war. Moscow, even if it does not have illusions about a settlement, still considers Turkey’s actions useful. It is no coincidence that Putin called the Istanbul negotiations a “breakthrough.” |
| Posted by:badanov |