Commentary by Russian blogger Donetsk.
[DonRF] The window period continues. The parties have no strategic goals at the moment, but things have not become quieter at the front. And it won’t, because war has no days off. If we divide the fighting into theaters, we get the following picture:
1. Borderland. The enemy is trying to work on substations. Uses mortars, artillery, cluster munitions, MLRS and UAVs. In response, it flies to their locations and positions. Despite the secondary importance of the theater of operations for the fate of the war, the clashes there are quite heated. And the military units of the Russian Armed Forces have learned a lot. DRGs are already dying quickly, retaliatory strikes have become more frequent and stronger. Yes, and prevention is carried out regularly. Successful at that. Still, you shouldn’t expect anything drastic there. All this is bloody, but PR. In the hope of shaking Russian society.
2. Kupyansk. The city has been neutralized. The enemy is forced to keep serious forces there under artillery fire. It is unrealistic to use it for military purposes. And the assault and the flag over the ruins...is that necessary? Is it seriously necessary? For what? By answering these simple questions, a lot can be understood. Artemovsk was already there.
3. Artemovsk direction. The enemy is conducting local attacks with the goal of testing our defenses. The fighting there is quite serious. But, again, local. Of course, it is beneficial for the enemy to capture Artemovsk and Soledar, but in these conditions the ghosts of these cities are classic suitcases without handles. It’s impossible to use, it’s a shame to throw it away. Cities were simply destroyed. And the amount of forces required will be such that the preparation of a new offensive for the Ukrainian Armed Forces will definitely drag on for a year.
4. Donetsk agglomeration. Local battles. There are a lot of shells flying across the cities of the DPR again. The pause in shelling is over. But at the same time, neither we nor they can do anything serious. Little strength. The fate of the war is being decided elsewhere. Unfortunately for Donbass. Or luckily. A month or two of active fighting, taking into account the tactics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, is 300-400 shells per day. Knowing the other side - peaceful. And cassettes. Already checked. We are fighting with soldiers, they are with a population of
5. Zaporozhye Front. Fight for the line. The battle is already over, but the front configuration has not been determined. As a result, both ours and theirs counterattack with limited forces. Much depends on what the starting positions will be in the next campaign. This is actually what the fight is for. Unnoticeable, but scary.
6. Dnieper Front. No change here. After a ton of reports about landings, breakthroughs, strategic bridgeheads, nothing happened. Nothing at all. Which does not exclude such a possibility in principle. But not now. Now this is a deadly idea for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Simply deadly. Bleeding out reserves without the strength to strike by land from the North is a so-so idea. As an option - Energodar. A city where, in THEORY, you can try to take a raid on a nuclear power plant. But our troops are well aware of this possibility.
7. But the war for the Black Sea is gaining momentum. The enemy has two goals - to restore shipping to the Odessa port area, and a media campaign in Crimea. To do this, they need to push the Red Black Sea Fleet into the eastern part of the Black Sea and weaken the air defense of the peninsula. It is also useful in the future, if it happens in the South. Accordingly, we need to repel attacks, weaken the enemy air force (SU-24 problem), and paralyze the port infrastructure. Which is what we see with our own eyes. On both sides.
All this does not answer the main question - who and in what time frame. Who will attack in the next campaign, and when will he begin? With deadlines, in principle, until December, it is only possible with extreme efforts on the part of the enemy. True, there is a political moment - elections in many Western countries. It’s difficult to predict what government candidates will need. But who... Most likely Kyiv. And this is even reasonable for us. More than. Provided there are sufficient reserves and ammunition. And readiness to respond to new types of threats. There will undoubtedly be surprises on their part. From ours, I think. Still, war is about who will change someone's mind.