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| U.S. spies learned in mid-June Prigozhin was planning armed action in Russia |
| 2023-06-26 |
| [WaPo] U.S. spy agencies picked up intelligence in mid-June indicating Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin was planning armed action against the Russian defense establishment — which he has long accused of bungling the war in Ukraine — and urgently informed the White House and other government agencies so they were not caught off guard, several U.S. officials said Saturday. The exact nature and timing of Prigozhin’s plans were not clear until shortly before his stunning takeover of a military command and tank run toward Moscow on Friday and Saturday, officials said. But "there were enough signals to be able to tell the leadership ... that something was up," said one U.S. official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. "So I think they were ready for it." Over the past two weeks there was "high concern" about what might transpire — whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain in power and what any instability might mean for control of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, the official said. "There were lots of questions along those lines," this person said. The instability that might result from a Russian "civil war" was the key fear, officials said. In addition to the White House, senior officials at the Pentagon, State Department and in Congress were briefed within the past two weeks on the intelligence, officials said. CNN earlier reported that officials had briefed congressional leaders this past week. A key trigger for Prigozhin, officials said, was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government. Though the order did not mention Wagner Group by name, the implication was clear: a takeover of Prigozhin’s mercenary troops, who have proved essential to Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine and have helped secure some of its most notable tactical victories. Ukrainian military officials also were watching Prigozhin after the June 10 announcement and increasingly believed that he might mobilize his forces against Moscow, said a senior Ukrainian official. Prigozhin had publicly protested the Defense Ministry’s order, and Ukrainian officials took seriously the possibility that he might move against Russian positions, this person said. But the timing of a move was unclear, the Ukrainian official said, adding that he was not aware of the U.S. sharing its intelligence with Kyiv on a possible march by Prigozhin and his forces. Seems the only officials surprised were in the Kremlin. |
| Posted by:Enver Slager8035 |
| #8 The coup was believed wholeheartedly by lots of the same people who think the Moon landings were faked. |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2023-06-26 18:38 |
| #7 the US intel community has lost its credibility... ... not to mention missing the fall of the Soviet Union and that sign reading "Chinese Embassy" out in front of a soon to be bombed Chinese Embassy. For the sake of argument, let's stipulate that our spooks did pick up word that Prigozhin was planning hijinks. Maybe they got competent, maybe they got lucky. Maybe they were being played... From a screenplay standpoint, the March on Moscow is brilliant storytelling. But if we lift the skirts and look at the military underpinnings, it was a pretty lame-ass coup. Not many men or vehicles involved. No air support. No radio or TV stations seized. Barely any fighting. And if there was fighting eventually, Wagners depend on the Russian Mod for bullets, beans and gas. Prigozhin is both a caterer and a war lord - two occupations that require a knack for logistics and planning. I have to believe that he could plan a successful coup and this was not it. So what's the point? The embarrassing Prigozhin vs the MoD soap opera comes to an end. Wagners gets rolled into the real military which makes sense from an organizational standpoint. Prigozhin gets "deported" to Belarus where he trains their forces and establishes a couple Wagner camps, for just in case. Some troops get moved around without anyone freaking out. And everyone stands with Putin, Hero of the Motherland. Which they already kinda sorta did, since most of dissatisfaction seems to be with the speed at which he is prosecuting the war. tl;dr: This coup is bullshit. But excellent theater. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2023-06-26 18:35 |
| #6 From the V Kontakte page of RUSSIAN SPRING (rusvesna.su) ‼🇷🇺🏴☠Prigozhin's statement about the rebellion ▪The formal reason was the "intrigue" that would lead to the "disbandment of the PMC" on July 1, said Prigozhin. ▪The purpose of the campaign was to prevent the destruction of the PMC "Wagner" and to bring to justice those persons who, through their unprofessional actions, made a huge number of mistakes during the SVO. ▪He assures that the PMC began its march to demonstrate protest, and not to overthrow the government. ▪"We covered 700 km in a day, not a single soldier on the ground was killed, we regret that we were forced to strike at air assets, but they threw bombs and struck." ▪When the 1st Assault Squad approached Moscow, it became obvious that a lot of blood would be shed, so we felt that a demonstration of what we wanted to do was sufficient (about why the PMC turned around). "Lukashenko extended his hand and offered to find solutions. ▪ The columns turned back and went to the field camps. ▪The march of justice showed many of the things that we talked about earlier: the most serious security problems in the country, we blocked all military units and airfields that were in our way, in 24 hours we covered the distance from the launch site of Russian troops on February 24 to Kiev, and from the same point to Uzhgorod. ▪If the operations on February 24 had been carried out by a trained unit like the Wagner PMC, the special operation might have lasted a day, it is clear that there were other problems, but we showed the level of organization that the Russian army must correspond to. |
| Posted by: badanov 2023-06-26 12:41 |
| #5 I'm sorry but the US intel community has lost it's credibility in the past two or so decades, certainly since the failure and debacle of 9/11 and also as its efforts to derail Donald Trump have been exposed. It's easy for them to claim after the fact that they knew what Prigozhin was thinking. Who among the proles would know if they knew or not? Besides, what difference did this knowledge they claim to have had make for our country? |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2023-06-26 12:27 |
| #4 I'd love to see the return of the sinktrap. |
| Posted by: Jan 2023-06-26 12:14 |
| #3 rest my case a BEAR YES A BEAR PICTURE see ya cutting your fingers off at SLOWES HOME UNIMPROVEMENT! |
| Posted by: Cholutle Thrans9751 2023-06-26 10:56 |
| #2 |
| Posted by: Cholutle Thrans9751 2023-06-26 08:46 |
| #1 FWIW Everyone who reads Rantburg had a pretty good idea Prigozhin was going to make a play.... |
| Posted by: The Walking Unvaxed 2023-06-26 00:34 |