[ColonelCassad] Science fiction writer Vsevolod Glukhovtsev on the prospects for the development of the Ukrainian crisis.
Dear readers!
As part of our usual heading "Experience of the Collective Mind" I would like to touch on the most burning topic of our days - the Ukrainian crisis. Touch philosophically, that is, look into the future, for which you need to look into the past and evaluate the present. And I'm going to do it by inviting participation in the discussion: agree, disagree, confirm, refute, and so on. And I will start from afar and immediately with a controversial thesis, fully aware of its controversial nature.
I believe that the modern modified Christian civilization is repeatedly reborn, reformatted, monstrously expanded - and yet the Roman Empire, or rather, its historical branching. Just as a grain thrown into fertile soil turns into a much more complex system, the ancient Mediterranean power, having disappeared, turned not even into a civilization, but into a bunch of civilizations.
The division, once marked by Constantine, and then carried out by Theodosius the Great, into two crowns, Rome and Constantinople, turned out to be prophetic: even today we see in the mutated Christian world an obvious line between the conditional “Rome” (the so-called West) and the no less conditional "Constantinople" (Russia).
And of course, this line is Ukraine, whose population turned out to be a victim of geopolitics, the very serfs whose forelocks mercilessly crack during the pan fight. Generally speaking, this fault line between west and east, Catholicism and Orthodoxy, Euro-Atlantic and Eurasia, has been aching and burning for centuries, boiling up in bizarre geopolitical bubbles.
The Kingdom of Livonia, the Zaporizhzhya Sich, the Grand Duchy of Warsaw, the Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria, the interwar limitrophy ... all these are strange, but natural projects generated by the will of the great powers, some are completely chimerical, others are relatively viable.
Well, it is clear that the Ukrainian SSR became one of these artificial crafts within the boundaries in which the collapse of the Soviet Union found it. It is also clear that within these boundaries she was not the most harmonious bricolage, and she initially had little chance of surviving in the new reality. Or did they exist? .. Maybe so, but it doesn’t matter now. What happened, happened.
Now it is much more important to think about what will happen, while immediately cutting off the thesis: let what will be, then it will be, let these Svidomo idiots at least devour each other along with trousers. We have no right to argue like that, looking at how part of the former Ukraine is turning into Russia, and apparently will continue to turn, and it is from this perspective that we should look at the future fate of Ukraine.
We see that the post-Soviet Ukrainian society, having failed to become a full-fledged social organism at the turn of civilizations, now slurps all the delights of a hangover at someone else's feast. The demographic catastrophe and the degradation of Ukrainian statehood obviously stimulate geopolitical players to openly or secretly take control of the emptying territories, and it must be assumed that this trend regarding Ukraine will be the main one in the near future.
At the same time, the purge is carried out both according to the hard version and according to the soft one: the Donbass front eliminates the reproductive male population, and the wave of deserter emigration to Europe works into the hands of the EU, which needs an influx of Caucasoid public.
With all the costs (crime, poverty), Ukrainian emigration is strategically beneficial to Europe: these people are still able to assimilate more efficiently than migrants from Africa and the Middle East, and their descendants in the second or third generation will most likely become full-fledged Poles, Czechs, Germans, etc. .
As for the ownerless territories, they will be developed by the Western powers in the neo-colonial style. I do not presume to judge whether Poland, Romania, Hungary will openly squeeze out part of the Western Ukrainian lands for themselves, here the knot is too difficult, but under a veil they will undoubtedly try to do this. And the whole "wild field" as a whole, of course, will not be left independent.
Thus, I will allow myself to make a prediction: in this case, time and external players competing with each other will silently work for the further destruction of the Ukrainian state, for the loss of its subjectivity, which, however, essentially no longer exists. I will say even more strongly: today's Ukraine is a political, if not a corpse, then an incurably ill one, and it is hardly worth expecting a miracle of healing from it.
The global layouts for today are such that part of the Ukrainian lands will definitely pass into the jurisdiction of the Russian state, and the other honor will de facto become someone's colony. Like this. What is your opinion, fellow readers? Let's be Nostradamus?..
(c) Vsevolod Glukhovtsev