by Alexander Kots
[KP] WILL THE APU WILL RETRACT TO THE NEW LINE OR WILL "DRAP TO THE DNEPR"?
Informationally , the situation around Artemovsk today resembles an episode from the "Ordinary Miracle." Remember the princess gives the hero Abudlov: “For three days I chased you to say how indifferent you are to me!” Same with Bakhmut. Even at the beginning of the year, both the Western media and the Kyiv authorities vied with each other about the importance of the city-fortress, which Ukraine would by no means surrender.
Zelensky on February 2, I remember, said so.
And a month later, when the prospects for the defense of Artemovsk became obvious, he assured that the Armed Forces of Ukraine would not defend the city at any cost and to the last soldier (although what is happening there now reminds me of this). The Pentagon with him, that's a surprise, in solidarity - no strategic importance, according to US generals, the city does not play. And even if it is lost, nothing terrible will happen to Kyiv.
True, not all overseas military analysts are so optimistic.
The former adviser to the head of the US Department of Defense, Colonel Douglas McGregor, for example, believes that with the fall of Artemovsk , a chain reaction will begin that will lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian defense.
“The story with Bakhmut is coming to an end, and this will be the beginning of a new phase of the conflict, during which the southern front will completely collapse,” McGregor said. - The Ukrainian army found itself in a difficult situation, it is experiencing an acute shortage of food, medicine and ammunition. And the command left its soldiers to the mercy of fate.
Bloomberg believes that by losing control over Bakhmut, Kyiv risks losing the entire territory of the DPR.
And the former American intelligence officer Tony Shaffer, in an interview with journalist Stephen Gardner, even believes that the retreat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine right up to the Dnieper will be a consequence of the transfer of the settlement under the control of Russian troops.
What is really going on in the city right now? What are the real consequences of the capture of Artemovsk? And when will it take place?
FOUR RESERVES OF GENERAL SYRSKY FOR A BREAKTHROUGH TO BAKHMUTH
According to the latest data, units of PMC "Wagner" control about 70% of Bakhmut. To date, we have completely liberated the eastern and northern parts of the city. The main battles are now unfolding in the north-west and south-west around Artemovsk, where the “pincers” of the environment are tightening more and more tightly. “Above” we are fighting for the Khromovo settlement and the village of Bogdanovka standing on the road to Chasov Yar, “below” for Ivanovskoye, also located on the road. The resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is inhuman, knowing full well that with the loss of these settlements, the lid of the boiler on the Bakhmut garrison will actually slam shut.
The commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Syrsky , with maniacal persistence, continues to assure that the defense of Bakhmut will continue, and he is not going to withdraw the troops. You can be so self-confident only in one case - if there is a real plan to de-blockade the city. And this is possible only by hitting the flanks of the “musicians”.
As Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner, stated , “in late March-early April, Ukraine plans to launch a large-scale offensive and deliver flank cut-off strikes in order to “cut off” PMCs from the main forces of the RF Armed Forces.” According to intelligence, several strike groups have been created for this at once. One - in Slavyansk, the second - in Seversk, the third - in Chasov Yar, the fourth - in Konstantinovka. Dozens of pieces of equipment and mobilized reinforcements are uninterruptedly approaching there. Part of the "road of life" is immediately sent to the "Artyomovskaya meat grinder" to replenish shabby connections, part remains to form reserves.
The most dangerous situation is to the north of Bakhmut, from where the enemy will most likely try to strike. That is why the PMC seeks to close the ring around the city as soon as possible, so that some of the fighters can turn around to the outside of the "cauldron" to repel a possible breakthrough. And they hope that units of the Russian army will cover the flanks.
The intended direction of attack is from Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. It is vitally important for Kyiv to break through the front line in this direction, because here behind Bakhmut passes the outer defense contour of the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration - along the watershed of the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal. It is located on a hill, which descends to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
SLICED "PIE"
At the same time, the very course of hostilities outlines the prospect of our hypothetical offensive. Which, however, will take place only if the "musicians" will actively and harmoniously interact with the units of the Russian army.
Now dense battles are being fought by our troops to the north of Soledar along the Vasyukovka-Razdolovka line, on which it is possible to create a bridgehead for an attack on Seversk. In the case of the development of advancement from the south to the settlement of Ray-Aleksandrovka, and from the north to Yampol, there is a prospect of encircling Seversk and the collapse of this entire defense line that goes from here to Toretsk. Thus, we get a perspective on one side of approaching Slavyansk, and on the other, an exit to Konstantinovka.
This is the next line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine , which runs from south to north from Avdiivka to the city-symbol of the Russian spring. Considering the activity around Avdiivka, a sliced pie with several “cauldrons” emerges around Druzhkovka, Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.
This does not mean that tomorrow we will wake up in a new reality, when the liberation of Donbass is already tangible. This is wrong. I worked in Artemovsk, there are no easy breakthroughs for kilometers ahead. The enemy fights literally for every stone. However, these battles tie down the huge resources of Kyiv in the Bakhmut direction. Ukraine is forced to transfer the most combat-ready units here in order to contain our offensive and allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to mobilize on new lines of defense.
And on the approach is also the spring offensive of the enemy, which can focus simultaneously on two directions - Svatovsky and Zaporozhye. Nevertheless, there is every chance that in the coming months the front will gradually move away from Donetsk, whose inhabitants, tortured by the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, will finally be able to breathe easier.