[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- TALIBAN TRY TO SECURE IRAN BORDER — Minister for Refugees and Repatriations Khalil-ur-Haqqani has called for increased recruitment of Taliban security forces personnel to help secure the border with Iran. His intention is to reinforce the border with more troops in order to keep Afghans from illegally entering Iranian territory. A source in the palace says this is a top priority for Iran and is being used to threaten the regime in Kabul/Kandahar to get Afghanistan to honor the water treaty agreement.
- ZAKIR RUMORS BECOME CLEARER — Previous reporting about the wounding and/or death of the Taliban’s special military commander in Panjshir appears to be grounded in truth. A few of the journalism outlets covering Afghanistan are beginning to cover the story. We have confirmed the Taliban have set up heavy security around a hospital (location undisclosed) for the last two days, and a source in the Ministry of Defense has said that a Taliban VIP is undergoing treatment at the facility. Zakir’s death would strike a heavy blow, especially since the remaining Taliban troops in Panjshir are reportedly disorganized and some infighting between local commanders has been filmed.
- NRF FREE TALIBAN PRISONERS, DRAW IRE —The NRF released 8 Taliban prisoners that they captured in Panjshir, drawing condemnation from some NRF supporters. Some members claim that Taliban prisoners should be summarily executed since the Taliban are extrajudicially executing Resistance prisoners. This reaction appears to be directly related to the recent massacres of NRF prisoners, given that the NRF released 40 prisoners last month without drawing the same critique.
- KYRGYZ-TAJIK FIGHTING INTENSIFIES — Fighting between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the disputed border regions has increased over the last 24 hours with some observers claiming Tajikistan soldiers have occupied several towns on the Kyrgyz side of the border. The conflict has the potential to widen, and Russia is said to be sending a mediating group to both capitals to de-escalate the crisis. Russia has a military presence in both countries with established military bases and mechanized forces.
CONFLICT TRACKER
Kunar: 2 Talib intelligence officers were kaboomed when they vehicle passed an IED planted by the side of the road in the Suki district Friday night. The 2 officers are thought to be intelligence director Hidayatullah Haqyar and either his deputy or a bodyguard. No group has yet claimed responsibility.
Takhar: Sources reported a kaboom in the money changers section of the market in Taliqan city Saturday. Initial reports suggest a hand grenade was used to kill one and injure two. The target was unclear and no group has yet claimed responsibility.
NEXT 24 HOURS
- PANJSHIR WITHOUT ZAKIR — We are monitoring the situation in Panjshir closely. If Taliban forces in the region are leaderless and disorganized, it could provide an opportunity for the NRF to launch offensive strikes. While some rumors indicate that several Taliban convoys have been seen leaving the province, we do not assess that these movements are tied to the current situation but rather are previously reported moves to reinforce the border with Pakistan along the Durand line. We assess the potential for fighting as high during this particular phase.
- WATCH THE TAJIK-KYRGYZ CONFLICT — Regional observers are watching for escalations in the Tajik-Kyrgyz conflict. Should the fighting intensify, borders will almost certainly be closed and the bellicose relations between Tajikistan and the Taliban could see incidents along the joint border. There is also potential for domestic strife in the Gorno-Badakhshan region of Tajikistan. With Dushanbe focused on the situation with its neighbor to the North, Pamiri separatist and several other groups with grievances against the Tajik government may seek to exploit the situation.
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