Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin.
[ColonelCassad] 1. Mariupol.
Plant them. Ilyich is released. In addition to prisoners, trophies were taken. The plant was seriously damaged during the fighting, but it could well be restored. Fighting continues in the Azovmash area. Most of the Primorsky region has been liberated, but resistance still continues there.
The enemy concentrated the remaining forces on the defense of Azovstal, holding the very territory of Azovstal, as well as the houses of the Levoberezhny district adjacent to it, where forces are now concentrated to storm the plant. Azovstal is heavily bombed. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have not had the opportunity to release the remnants of the Mariupol group for a long time, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine refused these plans back in mid-March for military reasons.
2. Zaporozhye.
The front line Kamenskoye-Orekhov-Gulyaipole remains unchanged. Intensive hostilities are not conducted here, although the parties are actively using artillery and MLRS. The Russian Federation is actively engaged in the establishment of railway communication, which will facilitate the supply of the group in this direction.
To the east of Gulyaipole, there are sluggish battles for individual villages. Serious progress has not yet been noted. Ukrainian flags are being actively removed in the region and the work of new authorities is being established to the best of their ability.
3. Nikolaev.
The sides are not yet conducting active offensive operations, being mainly engaged in the exchange of strikes (artillery and MLRS). Attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to advance towards Kherson led to heavy losses, and here, for the time being, tendencies towards positionalism triumph.
The RF Armed Forces are methodically working on targets in Nikolaev itself, inflicting heavy damage on the enemy. Also, strikes were made in the direction of Krivoy Rog and Nikopol to stop the enemy's activity. The Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to advance in the Novorontsovka area, traditionally fired at Chernobaevka from the MLRS and OTRK. The grouping of forces on both sides has grown here in recent weeks. It is impossible to exclude the activation of this direction in the coming weeks.
4. Odessa.
No major changes. Landing operations or "breakthroughs" from Transnistria are not expected. Part of the forces of the Odessa Volkssturm and one of the brigades were transferred to the Nikolaev direction. The use of NATO-supported anti-ship missiles will make it more difficult for the Black Sea Fleet to carry out missions in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, but it is unlikely to affect the intensity of missile launches against targets in Ukraine.
5. LPR.
In Popasnaya, the troops are moving forward, controlling part of the city center, the enemy is stubbornly defending. The pace of progress is generally low. Heavy fighting continues in the southern part of Rubizhne.
6. Severodonetsk .
There is no big progress in these settlements yet.
7. Avdievka.
There are no changes in Avdievka itself. Ordinary positional battles in the prom. To the north of Avdievka, fighting took place in the area of ​​Novobakhmutovka, Novoselka-2, and Troitsky.
8. Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration.
The enemy is preparing for a long-term defense, being subjected to systematic missile, air and artillery strikes. The emphasis is on the tough defense of cities with the support of the reserve concentrated in the area of ​​Artemovsk, Soledar and Krasnoarmeysk.
9. Kharkov.
No big changes. Battles - to the north and east of the city. Settlements north of Kharkov, as well as the northern outskirts of Kharkov, are gradually turning into an analogue of Mariupol. The enemy is accumulating forces near Kharkov in order to interfere with possible operations of the RF Armed Forces to encircle the city. Chuguev's garrison is also reinforced.
10. Izyum.
The offensive of the RF Armed Forces continues in the direction of Slavyansk and Barvenkovo. The enemy throws here the main reserves, which are gradually crushed here in fierce battles. As before, the RF Armed Forces have three routes here - to Slavyansk, to Barvenkovo ​​and to Pavlograd through Lozovoye. The expected big offensive will show exactly where they are going to reach the Donetsk-Pavlograd highway.
In general, we can talk about the continuation of the operational pause in anticipation of the start of a large-scale offensive by the RF Armed Forces in the Donbass.
Plus according to Zelensky's statement about Ilovaisk.
"Yes, maybe Ilovaisk" (c) Zelensky
In fact, Ilovaisk has already happened.
Near Ilovaisk, according to Ukrainian data, the losses amounted to up to 1000 people killed + wounded + prisoners. And this was considered the biggest defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since 2014.
In Mariupol, according to Ukrainian data, up to 14,500 people were surrounded.
Of these, 3-3,500 are still defending. All the rest are killed, wounded, captured, missing, deserted or leaked in small groups to the Zaporozhye region.
Even now, the scale of the defeat of the Mariupol grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is several times greater than the scale of the defeat near Ilovaisk.
But no one officially recognizes this, since this would mean that even under Poroshenko, the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not suffer such a defeat as under Zelensky.