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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia | |
| Fog of War. What made Russia and ‘the West' engage in an unrelenting wrestling match on the edge of the abyss, with both sides eventually falling off the cliff? | |
| 2022-03-03 | |
Nobody knows at the time of writing how the war over Ukraine will end, and after what amount of bloodshed. What we can try to speculate about at this point is what the reasons may have been — and human actors have reasons, however crankish they may seem to others — for the uncompromising brinkmanship on the part of both the US and Russia. What a scene: escalating confrontation, rapidly dwindling possibilities for either side to save face short of total victory, ending with Russia’s murderous assault on a neighbouring country with which it once shared a common state. Here we find remarkable parallels, as well as the obvious asymmetries, since both Russia and the United States have long been facing the creeping decay of both their national social order and international position, apparently making them feel that they must halt it now or else it will continue forever. In the Russian case, what one sees is a regime both statist and oligarchic, confronting growing unrest among its citizens, rich in oil and corruption, unable to improve the lives of its ordinary people while its oligarchs are getting immeasurably rich, a regime increasingly turning towards the use of a heavy dictatorial hand against any organized protests. To sit more comfortably than one can on bayonets requires stability derived from economic prosperity and social progress, in turn dependent on global demand for the oil and gas Russia has to sell. For this, however, it needs access to financial markets and advanced technology, which the US had for some time begun to deny. | |
| Posted by:Omomolet Phutch9064 |
| #37 Heh. Gotta confess that I wondered once or twice whether Merrick might be Pozner... he still kicking? |
| Posted by: Spats Fillmore9008 2022-03-03 23:57 |
| #36 "The party line changes in real time, " But the direction does not. More more more howdya like it howdya like it Posted by Oscar Floque7650 2022-03-03 23:49|| 2022-03-03 23:49| Your age is showing... |
| Posted by: badanov 2022-03-03 23:51 |
| #35 "The party line changes in real time, " But the direction does not. More more more howdya like it howdya like it |
| Posted by: Oscar Floque7650 2022-03-03 23:49 |
| #34 Wha-wha-wha-wha-whaaaaaaaa.... Looks like the main cheerleader's team spirit is flagging... when that happens you know the End is Nigh RUSSIA GAINS GROUND IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE https://www.nytimes.com |
| Posted by: Spolung Untervehr5219 2022-03-03 23:34 |
| #33 /\ The 'Burg has certainly been attracting some unusual traffic lately. It's a fascinating phenomenon. As suspected, they've been here all the time. They've just recently become operational. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2022-03-03 23:28 |
| #32 The party line changes in real time, Tyranysaurus Dingle7068. Thanks for helping is all keep up. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2022-03-03 23:25 |
| #31 Did he say Russia China India Turkey Egypt? He meant Russia China India Turkey Egypt and South Africa https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/africa/russia-ukraine-eritrea-africa.html |
| Posted by: Tyranysaurus Dingle7068 2022-03-03 23:21 |
| #30 The 'Burg has certainly been attracting some unusual traffic lately. It's a fascinating phenomenon. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2022-03-03 23:03 |
| #29 BZZZZT! Timeclock punchout time comrades. Start again 12AM EST. Remember to anonymize your nyms so nobody can tell...not so fast, there, Omomulette |
| Posted by: Frank G 2022-03-03 21:06 |
| #28 @GLNoronha has all the details https://mobile.twitter.com/GLNoronha/status/1499018795926626305 |
| Posted by: Crinter Bumble1853 2022-03-03 19:32 |
| #27 Team Biden is buying millions of barrels of Russian oil. Team Biden (Rob Malley) is at this moment about to sign a new JCPOA in Vienna. They are literally asking Russia to help Iran build up its military -- and acquire nukes. And doing this behind your backs. While they pretend to bash Russia -- but not, of course, providing any meaningful assistance to Ukraine that will make any difference at all. Now do you see why Biden said helping ***IRANIANS*** instead of Ukrainians on Tuesday night? When will you little children stop being so fucking blind? |
| Posted by: Lionel B. Hayes6384 2022-03-03 19:31 |
| #26 You're hilarious. You sit here calling your friends "Ivan" and bleating "TROLL!!!" while your own leaders quietly sell yet another friend down the river. Normal people see yet another betrayal - par for the course for the Obama-Biden-Blinken team. Here's Michael P Pregent @MPPregent on twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/MPPregent/status/1499537327265390594?cxt=HHwWhIC98aLQts8pAAAA "While Putin's invasion of Ukraine is on every mind, the Biden team is courting Putin to make a deal with Iran while no one is looking. "A deal that will give Iran a bomb by 2024 and gives Iran sanctions relief now that frees up oil for cash to pay Putin for weapons & Syria. The Iran deal punishes Israel and Sunni allies" |
| Posted by: Glager Cleremble9701 2022-03-03 19:22 |
| #25 So now Ukraine is wrecked and thousands of Ukrainians are dead. For NOTHING. Because they trusted America. Translated from the Russian: "Look what you made me do!" The cry of sociopaths down through the ages.... |
| Posted by: Mercutio 2022-03-03 19:11 |
| #24 They can still buy sunflower seeds with those skinny rubles... |
| Posted by: Mercutio 2022-03-03 19:00 |
| #23 I think after they got kicked off of other platforms they came here to earn their depreciated rubles. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2022-03-03 17:46 |
| #22 Now the American Century's finished. *snort* 50 Cent Army and the Petersburg Trolls must be on overtime. |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2022-03-03 16:25 |
| #21 Iran has held out successfully against US pressure for decades - without a powerful ally. With such an ally, Israel has held out against international pressure for decades. Now Russia will simply adapt the lessons and techniques that these two nations have evolved, and create a way to get along, with the help of China and India and dozens of non-western trading partners, in opposition to a US that is rapidly becoming just one great power among several. |
| Posted by: Kofi Borgia7610 2022-03-03 15:01 |
| #20 Nobody can trust the US. American presidents That's been known for along while. Anyone who can get nukes should have gotten them yesterday. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2022-03-03 14:56 |
| #19 Britain and France prevailed in WWI - and their (and Europe's) hegemony over the world was destroyed forever. The US took over Britain's role and the American Century began. Now the American Century's finished. Yes, Russia will suffer, Ukraine is torn apart and will be even poorer and more miserable than it was before the war (they were even poorer than most of Africa), and the US post Cold War hegemony will have ended. History's ironic. So often "victory" = defeat. |
| Posted by: Betty Sloluque2258 2022-03-03 14:56 |
| #18 "Nobody can trust the US. American presidents kept on teasing the Ukrainians with NATO membership - and then pulling back the football " So why is Russia afraid Ukraine might join if this is never going to happen anyway? |
| Posted by: European Conservative 2022-03-03 14:54 |
| #17 To paraphrase Yogi Berra: "Everything is exactly the same, except when it's completely different..." |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2022-03-03 14:45 |
| #16 Substitute Ukraine for Vietnam and the US for the USSR: "Although the Also note the second-order effects: "The lessons of the war allowed |
| Posted by: Rupert Omoth4612 2022-03-03 14:26 |
| #15 Russia is doing now what Israel does repeatedly in southern Kabanin or Gaza and what the Chinese did to Vietnam in the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979. Punish the hostile neighbor by wrecking the country, and warn the greater power behind it -- Iran, or the USSR in Vietnam's case in 1979 -- that there is a severe price to pay for ducking with Israel's / China's security. Yes, the Chinese like the Israelis suffer setbacks and lose men and materiel. But the lesson is taught. And in China's case, the second order effects were extremely positive over the long term: "Although the Vietnamese remained pugnacious – a national trait – the war made clear that their Soviet patron would not fight to defend them. The USSR’s only contribution to the conflict was a supply airlift. Deng had bluffed and called, and the Soviets folded. "Obviously the PLA accomplished its mission, but the Vietnamese had taught the Chinese a lesson on the battlefield – one that Deng used for his own larger purpose. "The lessons of the war allowed Deng to sweep out the ossified Maoist old guard and embark on the modernization and professionalization of the PLA. "The result today is technologically advanced, operationally sound and strategically sophisticated Chinese armed forces to match the country’s emergence as an economic giant." |
| Posted by: Flerese Ebbaviper5206 2022-03-03 14:15 |
| #14 ^ Today's talking points. Issued from Russia |
| Posted by: Frank G 2022-03-03 14:11 |
| #13 Nobody can trust the US. American presidents kept on teasing the Ukrainians with NATO membership - and then pulling back the football while Ukrainian Charlie Brown leaped and fell on his head, again and again. So now Ukraine is wrecked and thousands of Ukrainians are dead. For NOTHING. Because they trusted America. Now do you understand why the Ukrainian government wants China to step in? |
| Posted by: Tiny Bluetooth4141 2022-03-03 14:09 |
| #12 Profit for the oil industry! Don't buy Russian gas, buy ours! Meanwhile, Putin literally floats on an ocean of money from the people who said "Unemploy people in America to benefit Russia!" and now want to pretend to be Brave Cold Warriors. |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2022-03-03 14:07 |
| #11 Despite some problems, we view our relationship with America as one of friends and allies. We'll have to do a bit more but we've just decided we will. Neutrality is not an option. Ukraine was a neutral country. And Finland is just wondering whethe rneutrality still is a good idea. Adenauer once said: "Wir wählen die Freiheit!" (We choose freedom). We still do. |
| Posted by: European Conservative 2022-03-03 14:05 |
| #10 "Nobody can trust China" eh? That must be why Ukraine is now asking CHINA, not the US or anyone in Europe, to step in and broker a cease-fire. We know none of you can read Chinese but for God's sake, at least try to step out of your little caves and just read your own non-yellow (pun intended) press. You people are so desperate to believe the garbage you've been force-fed, you can't even see reality when it hits you between the eyes. Go on, keep believing that China will not emerge the big winner from this crisis created by American stupidity and Russian desperation. |
| Posted by: Jinter Crereng8348 2022-03-03 14:05 |
| #9 Russia cannot trust China. Nobody, as we have discovered during the Wuhan flu shut down, can trust China. Trusting China is good way to become owned by China. Demand for oil is largely inelastic. As the price drops, demand increases. As the world economy heats up, demand increases. When the price goes up, demand decreases. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2022-03-03 13:40 |
| #8 Once again nobody has been able to refute any of the arguments made. Because there aren't any. The facts are here. Would an alliance between China and Russia be an unintended result of American incompetence, or on the contrary, an intended result of American global strategy? If Moscow were to team up with Beijing, there would be no prospect anymore for a Russian-European settlement à la francaise. Western Europe, in whatever political form, would more than ever function as the transatlantic wing of the United States in a new cold or, perhaps, hot war between the two global power blocs, the one declining, hoping to reverse the tide, the other hoping to rise. Wouldn't that be hilarious if this drove China into the arms of Russia? They're not natural allies. But let me tell you - their university students don't have 48 different genders and are not required to write diversity statements before commencing research. And Europeans just love kowtowing to America on every topic. Don't believe me, just ask them! |
| Posted by: Omomolet Phutch9064 2022-03-03 13:04 |
| #7 If you invade my house and pull a gun on me, I don't care about your lousy childhood and the fact that nobody loves you. |
| Posted by: Mercutio 2022-03-03 09:11 |
| #6 "Sorry I hit you Ukraine. It's just this war and that lying son of a bitch, Johnson!" |
| Posted by: Frank G 2022-03-03 08:59 |
| #5 Another desperate attempt to blame anyone but Putin. |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2022-03-03 08:31 |
| #4 Demand for oil is largely inelastic. |
| Posted by: Omomolet Phutch9064 2022-03-03 07:17 |
| #3 Profit for the oil industry! Don't buy Russian gas, buy ours! A good idea for America, even without war. And without war, Russia could have easily sold more of their oil and gas to other customers instead — like China, Japan, India, Europe, etc. The world is coming out of a Covid-caused economic slowdown, so demand for Russian oil will only increase... or would have, before countries started boycotting Russia over Ukraine. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2022-03-03 06:25 |
| #2 You didn't actually engage with any ideas or make any arguments. That's just a personal insult. People who answer with insults don't have any arguments. Otherwise they'd make them. How about addressing this point: "For the US, refusing Russian demands for security guarantees was a convenient way to shore up the unconditional allegiance of European countries to NATO, an alliance that had become shaky in recent years. This concerned especially France, whose president had not long ago diagnosed NATO to be as ’brain-dead’, but also Germany with its new government whose leading party, the SPD, was considered too Russian-friendly. There was also unfinished business regarding a gas pipeline, Nord Stream 2. Merkel, in tandem with Schröder, had invited Russia to build it, hoping to fill the gap in German energy supply expected to result from the FRG’s Sonderweg running out of coal and nuclear power. The US opposed the project, as did many others in Europe, including the German Greens. Among the reasons were fears that the pipeline would make Western Europe more dependent on Russia, and that it would be impossible for Ukraine and Poland to interrupt Russian gas deliveries should Moscow be found to misbehave. The confrontation over Ukraine, by restoring European allegiance to American leadership, solved this problem in no time." War, what is it good for? Profit for the oil industry! Don't buy Russian gas, buy ours! |
| Posted by: Omomolet Phutch9064 2022-03-03 03:00 |
| #1 Summary: a Marxist analyst from New Left Review tries to fit the current situation into a Gramscian frame, fails, spills 50,000 words spewing ironic scorn at all involved, ends up with "Time will tell" |
| Posted by: Kofi Shack1371 2022-03-03 01:16 |