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| JFCOM/Mattis on Peak Oil |
| 2010-04-13 |
| Link to .pdf At present, investment in oil production is only beginning to pick up, with the result that production could reach a prolonged plateau. By 2030, the world will require production of 118 MBD, but energy producers may only be producing 100 MBD unless there are major changes in current investment and drilling capacity. By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD. A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India. At best, it would lead to periods of harsh economic adjustment. One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest. The Chinese are laying down approximately 1,000 kilometers of four-lane highway every year, a figure suggestive of how many more vehicles they expect to possess, with the concomitant rise in their demand for oil. The presence of Chinese "civilians" in the Sudan to guard oil pipelines underlines China's concern for protecting its oil supplies and could portend a future in which other states intervene in Africa to protect scarce resources. The implications for future conflict are ominous, if energy supplies cannot keep up with demand and should states see the need to militarily secure dwindling energy resources. Another potential effect of an energy crunch could be a prolonged U.S. recession which could lead to deep cuts in defense spending (as happened during the Great Depression). Joint Force commanders could then find their capabilities diminished at the moment they may have to undertake increasingly dangerous missions. Should that happen, adaptability would require more than preparations to fight the enemies of the United States, but also the willingness to recognize and acknowledge the limitations of America's military forces. The pooling of U.S. resources and capabilities with allies would then become even more critical. Coalition operations would become essential to protecting national interests. |
| Posted by:Nimble Spemble |
| #9 "I can assure you, only the highest specification of flyash has been extensively used...." |
| Posted by: Frank G 2010-04-13 21:55 |
| #8 The Chinese are laying down approximately 1,000 kilometers of four-lane highway every year, a figure suggestive of how many more vehicles they expect to possess Not mentioned: increasing the ability to move large numbers of military and paramilitary forces, provide landing strips for aircraft, etc. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2010-04-13 21:18 |
| #7 IOW, IMO what this Artic is tyring hard NOT to say is that America = Amerika, the Mighty OWG USSA = Weak OWG USRoA SSR, must find a way to expand and make NUCLEAR-BASED TECH AVAILABLE AND AFFORDABLE TO FREE MARKET MASS CONSUMERS. Clearly a job for FUTURAMA'S mad Mad MAD M-A-D MMMMMMAAAAAAAADDDDDD FRANKEN/ZILLA SCIENTISTS, + FRYE. * "Its almost like it wants us to have $5.0 gas" > wehell,IMO THEY DO. To wit, As times before, 9-11 + GWOT > AMONG OTHER, 'TIS ABOUT SETTING UP [Pro-US vs Anti-US]OWG-NWO INCLUDING NATIONAL-GLOBAL/UNIVERSAL SOCIALIST ORDER, EVEN IFF THE POLITICOS, ETAL. DON'T = WON'T WANT TO ADMIT SO AT THIS TIME. MSM-Net > PCorrectly-Deniably ascribed as "THE RISE OF THE REST" OF THE US-WORLD. "JUSTIFIED" = "LEGITIMATE" = "VALIDATED" = "CREDIBLE" = ..................@. D *** NG IT, TWASN'T OUR GOVT NICE ENOUGH TO NOT ASK MAINSTREAM AMERICA = AMERIKA TO VOTE ON WHETHER YOU WANTED SAID SAME OWG-NWO, US-GLOBAL SOCIALIST ORDER, .................@ USE YOUR $$$ TO PAY FOR DEV THE REST OF THE WORLD!? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2010-04-13 19:16 |
| #6 Drill here, drill now. What is the problem with the government, it is almost like it wants us to have $5 gas. |
| Posted by: bman 2010-04-13 15:14 |
| #5 Feb. trade deficit increases to $39.7 billion The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that the deficit for February increased 7.4 percent to $39.7 billion. That was larger than the $38.5 billion deficit economists had expected. Exports edged up 0.2 percent while imports jumped 1.7 percent. Imports rose a larger 1.7 percent to $182.9 billion as imports of consumer goods rose to the highest level since October 2008. Increases were recorded in shipments of computers, televisions and other electronic appliances, toys and games and clothing. Imports of all petroleum products rose 1.6 percent to $27.6 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis even though the number of barrels of crude oil imported fell in February to the lowest level in 11 years. |
| Posted by: ed 2010-04-13 12:46 |
| #4 -- Regardless of 'mandarin' theories, economic prosperity since the 1600's has hinged on abundant cheap energy of whatever source. One of the reasons England's economy outstripped France's starting around 1750 was the availability / cheapness of English coal vs. whatever energy sources France had, which both countries needed to make iron & steel. --- One could make the case that the current economic stagnation is exacerbated by or even due to the current high price of petroleum. Finding more petroleum won't help unless and until the price can be considered cheap! --- By 2030, the world will require production of 118 MBD I cannot make sense of statements like this. The world requires wetter water and an infinite supply of free beer, also. The world cannot use more than current production/stockpiles, whatever that happens to be. --- Enemies of the USA will also be constrained by decreasing availability of cheap energy. 9/11 wouldn't have happened without the ability to fly Islamofascists all over the world at discounted air fares. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2010-04-13 12:16 |
| #3 They write, with minor modifications, what the mandarins tell them to write, and the mandarins don't want local drilling. |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2010-04-13 11:09 |
| #2 During this Great Recession mil spending is going to drop less the cost of any active war operations. You can count on everyone else of any 'Coalition' are going to cut if not gut their military. They already are sucking effectiveness after the Cold War peace dividend they've spent buying time till the bill is due on unsustainable social programs. Given the inability of most of the existing Western nations to effectively inter operate with American mil now, it's going to be even worse then. There's not going to be a 'Coalition' beyond someone tacking the name on some piece of paper that has zero effective range beyond any room it's composed in given a decade or so down the road. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2010-04-13 09:39 |
| #1 Not a single mention of exploratory and production drilling in the US. I call BS. |
| Posted by: Beldar Threreling9726 2010-04-13 09:08 |