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| India-Pakistan |
| Pakistan aims for nuclear acceptance |
| 2008-08-27 |
| The recent turmoil in Pakistan has only heightened western anxiety over the country’s nuclear weapons programme. Yet, thanks to security measures put in place during the nine-year rule of President Pervez Musharraf, who was recently forced to resign, controls over the country’s nuclear activity have never been firmer, according to both Pakistani and western officials. This may provide some reassurance to the west, but paradoxically could dent Islamabad’s hopes of following the faltering path on which India has embarked to international acceptance of its own nuclear energy programme. The Nuclear Suppliers Group, the global cartel of nuclear material suppliers, is to resume consideration of India’s agreement to buy US nuclear technology this week . “The Pakistani military has taken full control of the nuclear programme and now hold the keys to this project. They have gone out of their way to demonstrate to all of us that they are firmly in charge,” says a senior western diplomat in Islamabad who tracks Pakistan’s nuclear developments. Mr Musharraf focused on improving nuclear controls after revelations in 2004 that Abdul Qadeer Khan, the founder of the country’s nuclear programme, had traded know-how and technology with Iran, Libya and North Korea. Mr Khan has remained virtually under house arrest since then, with Pakistan denying repeated requests for western investigators to interview him. “Please understand our sensitivity. As the president of Pakistan, I would be foolish if I accepted any foreigners intruding into our nuclear [assets]; we guard them very jealously,” Mr Musharraf declared earlier this year. Amid the disclosures about Mr Khan, Mr Musharraf strengthened the military-run Strategic Plans Division (SPD), responsible for securing the 60 to 70 uranium bombs and three to five plutonium bombs that western intelligence believes have been produced. The SPD set up a human reliability initiative to track the activities of up to 2,000 technical experts at the heart of the nuclear facilities, with knowledge that could assist with nuclear weapons production. Other new safeguards included establishing a clear chain of command within the military under a three-star general who oversees the bombs in storage. The government, through agencies such as the SPD and the Nuclear Command Authority headed by the president, receives regular updates on frequent checks carried out to certify the safety of the nuclear weapons. Mr Musharraf’s downfall, say analysts, has had no impact on control of Pakistan’s nuclear programme, which remains firmly with the military. “There is no indication that the military does not exercise full control over Pakistan’s nuclear assets,” says Tanvir Ahmed Khan, a former Pakistani diplomat and head of the government-run Islamabad Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS). While the arrangement falls short of the civilian control generally held up by western states as best practice, Mr Khan says: “Responsibility is with an institution, which is reassuring.” Western diplomats warn that the military must help with the creation of oversight mechanisms involving elected politicians to improve future prospects in areas such as securing civilian reactors from the western world. Pakistan is keen to seek a deal with the US similar to India’s ambitious initiative to secure a supply of US nuclear reactors. So far, US officials have denied Islamabad’s requests, citing the risk of technology leakages to other countries. “Even if the military is firmly in charge of Pakistan’s nuclear programme, where is the civilian component in decision-making?” asks one senior US official. “Ultimately, there will have to be evidence of a strong civilian oversight for the world to accept that we are moving in to a new and more reassuring phase. Maybe after President Musharraf, politicians gain enough clout in time that they become full partners in managing and securing the nuclear programme,” the official added. |
| Posted by:john frum |