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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Iran to Israel: Don't Attack Lebanon
2007-05-25
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Iran's hard-line president warned Israel on Thursday that other nations in the region would "uproot" the Jewish state if it attacked Lebanon in the summer.
Don't worry Mahmoud, Olmert doesn't have the stones to go back into Lebanon.
"If you think that by bombing and assassinating Palestinian leaders you are preparing ground for new attacks on Lebanon in the summer, I am telling you that you are seriously wrong," President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told a rally in the city of Isfahan. "If this year you repeat the same mistake of the last year, the ocean of nations of the region will get angry and will uproot the Zionist regime."
Posted by:Steve White

#3  im not sure why it would be in Israels interest to go back into Leb right now. Seems the priority wrt Leb, is to get the Hariri trial going, and put more pressure on Syria that way. An Israeli invasion would be a diversion.

The main thing is to keep strengthenging the Leb Army to make it a useful tool against any attempt by Syria to divert things. Its not clear to me whats behind the Pal refugee camp thing - Syria trying to create a diversion - or a deliberate attempt to build up the Leb Armys abilities by going after folks whod been there for awhile? If it was Syria, they sure backed a pathetic horse.

Now IF Syria tries to create a diversion by another Hezbo attack on Israel, and assuming that the UN and Leb forces are no barrier to that (not an implausible assumption, by any means) THEN Israel would have to consider a response. Clearly another halfbaked invasion like last year would be a mistake. The alts would be a more or less pin prick air only response, or a full ground invasion from the get go. You are correct that Olmert probably wont do the latter - I think less from a lack of cojones, than from internal political weakness.

OTOH, why then, does not Syria-Iran-Hezbo strike NOW, with Israel in its maximal state of political weakness, sure not to last?

A. To attack again with no provocation would alienate world opinion, esp in Europe (nah, even I dont buy this one)
B. The UN force/Leb Army troops in the South really would get in the way (more possible than most here think, IMO, and certainly more plausible than A)
C. Cause they are too preoccupied elsewhere, in Iraq, Gaza, etc. But why then pick a fight with the Leb Army by backing Fatah Islam, if they are really behind that?
D. Cause Hezb is weaker than it looks, and even a "pin prick" attack could be very painful, and Hezb doesnt want to play that game
E. Internal divisions in the Iranian regime are paralyzing them?
Posted by: liberalhawk   2007-05-25 11:22  

#2  Israel to Iran: F*ck you.
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut   2007-05-25 00:30  

#1  Oh, I see... In Farsi, Israel's defence = Israel's attack.

Meaning that Hizbies are almost re-armed, so they'll try to pull some crap soon.
Posted by: twobyfour   2007-05-25 00:13  

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