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| Science & Technology |
| Global Cooling Alert - Hurricane Season To Be Ordinary |
| 2006-08-03 |
| The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season wonÂ’t be as bad as earlier predicted. ThatÂ’s according to the noted hurricane research team from Colorado State University which has revised its hurricane predictions. In May, the CSU team formed by pioneer forecaster William Gray had predicted the 2006 season would bring 17 storms and that nine would become hurricanes. The team has reduced the number of named storms from seventeen to fifteen. It also reduced the number of likely hurricanes from nine to seven and intense hurricanes from five to three. The CSU forecast is updated several times each year. The fact that there have only been two named storms in July is not the reason for the revision, Professor William Gray said. Several factors suggest less activity, he said. Atlantic sea surface temperatures are not quite as warm and surface pressure is not quite as low. Also, the eastern equatorial Pacific has warmed some and trade winds in the tropical Atlantic are slightly stronger. Gray and his team say hurricane activity will continue to be above average and will continue to be for another 15 to 20 years. Last year produced a record 28 tropical storms, topping the old mark of 21 set in 1933. Fifteen turned into hurricanes and four of those were Category 5, the most destructive type. |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #16 Here’s my take on it all. The Sun drives the weather on earth. If the Sun wasn’t there, this rock would look like Jupiter’s moon Europa. Now the buried info on the net shows that the Sun has been increasing in output for many years. That energy has to be absorbed within the environment to include the oceans and atmosphere. It just built up enough to unleash the great hurricane onslaught of ‘05. However, in doing so the natural balance of system dissipated a lot of latent energy., like a fault giving way or a volcano blowing. I suspect that the ‘predictors’ are going to have to continue to adjust their numbers even more this year. Of course, no one will question the word of the ‘experts’ even in the face of trouble with numbers. Now I’m not a qualified predictor, just another poster on Rantburg [and I slept at Holiday Inn last night]. |
| Posted by: Thung Snunter7363 2006-08-03 21:29 |
| #15 #14 BA - I'm actually in Richmond. We got our clocks cleaned by Isabel (worse than the coast), and Gaston - though it didn't cause enough wide-spread damage to have its name retired - dumped 10-14 inches of rain over Richmond in a few hours. Couldn't get home, cars and trucks floating, etc. (When I topped a small hill in my relentless search for a way to get home and saw a box delivery truck in the intersection ahead with the water ponding half-way up the box and rising, I gave up and went back to work.) I think we'll all settle for a quiet year this year. |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2006-08-03 20:57 |
| #14 Barbara: You on the coast of VA? I've gotta tell ya, after being to the gulf coast of Mississippi 3 times since Katrina, those people need NO MORE. Heck, one of my co-workers was just down there last weekend and even now (mind you we're almost a year since Katrina hit) he said there's only 1 house on 2 of the 3 gulf coast counties in Miss. that has even started reframing. Cleaned down to the slab most of them and even almost 1/2 mile inland. Now, N.O. on the other hand...I almost wish another would hit and just do her in (apologies to any N.O. RBers out there). |
| Posted by: BA 2006-08-03 20:07 |
| #13 My baby brother is involved in improving the weather predictions, at Oklahoma U @Norman. He set them up with massively parallel something-or-others, threw chaos theory into the mix, and has been quite pleased with the results thus far. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2006-08-03 19:23 |
| #12 Plywood futures plummet, FEMA announces lay offs. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2006-08-03 17:26 |
| #11 Yea it would be nice not have a year when the electric is not off for a week or two. |
| Posted by: djohn66 2006-08-03 16:20 |
| #10 Gray's team actually does a pretty good job overall at predicting the unpredictable. Remember the year of Hurricane Andrew? First hurricane of the year, didn't strike until August. I can do without a bad hurricane in Virginia this year - we've been hit pretty hard the last few years. (Yeah, yeah - I know it's lots worse in Florida and on the Gulf Coast, but I live here. I'm sure they can do without bad hurricanes there, too.) |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2006-08-03 16:10 |
| #9 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Center is in Boulder, right close by the University of Colorado. Don't diss the NOAA people - they've got at least two Cray-3s at work up there. The CSU team works hand in hand with NOAA, and with several other groups in the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins area. Of course, it could all be BS, too... |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2006-08-03 16:08 |
| #8 ...How inconveniant for my royalty check |
| Posted by: Al Gore 2006-08-03 15:54 |
| #7 I always question a team of scientists based in Colorado trying to predict stuff in the Gulf of Mexico or eastern seaboard. Now, the Nat'l Hurricane Center? After their increased accuracies of projections just the last 10 years or so, I'll listen to them. And, they're in the eye of the storm literally (Miami, FL). |
| Posted by: BA 2006-08-03 15:44 |
| #6 I predict there will be more inaccurate predictions. I'll go out on that limb with you. The team has reduced the number of named storms from seventeen to fifteen. It also reduced the number of likely hurricanes from nine to seven and intense hurricanes from five to three. Moving the goalposts? The fact that we're only on storm Chris well into the first week of August is a pretty good clue that the earlier prediction was off. /I realize climate forecasting is not an exact science - I just wish the MSM would admit as much. |
| Posted by: Xbalanke 2006-08-03 15:36 |
| #5 I predict there will be more inaccurate predictions. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2006-08-03 15:28 |
| #4 "Gray and his team say hurricane activity will continue to be above average and will continue to be for another 15 to 20 years." Have they ever been right, and if so, within what time frame? If they have a predictive system that works, i'd be interested..... |
| Posted by: Mark E. 2006-08-03 15:11 |
| #3 "And in other news: due to the downsizing of the hurricane prediction, there has been an increase in crude oil by all the major producers as well as rate increase by a majority of the insurance companies. While the reasons are complex, the underlying reason appears to be greed." |
| Posted by: USN, ret. 2006-08-03 14:36 |
| #2 Yes. The merger with the Soviet/Yakusa Woodpecker Grid hasn't worked out nearly as well as we thought it would... |
| Posted by: Halliburton: Earthquake/Tsunami Division 2006-08-03 14:32 |
| #1 "DAMNIT!" -the collected cry of Big Media |
| Posted by: eLarson 2006-08-03 14:26 |