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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Iran could go nuclear within 3 years |
| 2006-01-16 |
| Iranian scientists are expected to start work this week on the highly technical task of enriching tons of uranium to a level where it could be used in the production of atomic weapons, say the latest reports received by western intelligence agencies. The work is to be undertaken at the top-secret Natanz uranium enrichment facility 90 miles north-east of the capital, Teheran. The very existence of the plant was concealed from the outside world until two years ago, when an Iranian exile group produced details of its work. Intelligence sources say Iran will begin feeding converted uranium into 164 centrifuges at Natanz this week. That could enable it to create enriched uranium of sufficient quality for nuclear weapons production within three years. Previous estimates of the minimum time required had ranged from five to 10 years. Iran's unilateral decision to resume enrichment is by far the most critical development in its latest stand-off with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations-sponsored body responsible for enforcing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). As a signatory to the NPT, Iran is obliged to provide the IAEA with a comprehensive breakdown of all its nuclear activity, which Teheran insists is purely for the development of an indigenous nuclear power industry - despite Iran having one of the world's largest known oil reserves. But the discrepancies that have appeared in declarations to IAEA inspectors - which included concealing the existence of the Natanz complex - have increased suspicions that Iran is well advanced in its clandestine programme to build a nuclear weapon. Nuclear experts working for the intelligence agencies have concluded that it now has the resources necessary for developing a nuclear weapon. "Iran has spent the past 20 years scouring the world to acquire all the means of production and materials necessary for building nuclear weapons," a senior western intelligence officer told The Daily Telegraph. "The big intelligence debate now is not whether Iran can build a bomb, but how long it will take them to build it." Despite concerted attempts by western intelligence to prevent them acquiring nuclear equipment, the Iranians have managed to import key components. Latest reports suggest that Iran has at least 1,000 tons of uranium -"yellowcake", the oxide of uranium that can be enriched to create weapons-grade uranium. It was acquired from Niger and South Africa in the late 1990s. When processed, that quantity of yellowcake could provide enough material for five nuclear bombs. The Iranians have also obtained key components for processing the yellowcake and technical expertise from A Q Khan, the controversial scientist regarded as being the "father" of Pakistan's nuclear bomb. By far the most alarming acquisition from Pakistan, according to western intelligence assessments, is the P2 centrifuge, the highly sophisticated device necessary for enriching uranium to weapons grade. In order to reach the advanced stage needed for building an atomic weapon, it is necessary to connect a number of centrifuges so that they form a "cascade". When they were finally allowed to visit Natanz two years ago, IAEA inspectors were alarmed to discover that the Iranians had managed to construct a cascade. This comprises 164 centrifuges, which are based on Pakistan's P2 design. Any doubts about the effectiveness of the devices were banished when soil samples taken from the site by IAEA inspectors showed traces of weapons-grade uranium. If the nuclear programme were genuinely aimed at developing nuclear power, there would be no need to process weapons-grade uranium. Asked to explain the soil samples, the Iranians provided the rather lame excuse that the traces had inadvertently been imported from an unidentified foreign power - believed to be Pakistan - when the centrifuges were purchased. This is only one of the many glaring inconsistencies that have appeared in the Iranians' submissions to the IAEA, which has been powerless to prevent their relentless pursuit of nuclear technology. As a consequence Iran now has all the means of production and materials to proceed to the final weapons stage. That process will begin this week when scientists resume work on processing uranium to weapons grade at Natanz. Much of the preparatory work has already been done at the Isfahan nuclear conversion plant. Work resumed there last year when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered the removal of IAEA seals, unilaterally breaking the Paris Accord of November 2004. This was negotiated with the European Union as Iran promised to suspend its nuclear activities until IAEA inspectors had satisfied themselves that Teheran's nuclear intentions were purely peaceful. Isfahan has the capacity to process 300 tons of yellowcake a year, and before work was suspended in 2004 it was known that 37 tons had been developed to make uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas. UF6 is a key component in achieving weapons grade. Once the UF6 is produced, it is transferred to Natanz where it is fed into the centrifuges to enrich uranium to weapons grade. Exactly how much UF6 has been produced since the Isfahan seals were removed last August is unknown, although conservative intelligence estimates suggest there are sufficient stocks of UF6 for 30 kilos of enriched uranium. The warhead used at Hiroshima contained 25 kilos. The only question remaining for western intelligence is to assess exactly how long it will take the Iranians to complete the process. "We just don't know how efficient the Natanz plant is at enriching uranium," said an intelligence official. "This is a very complex and highly sophisticated process that requires a great deal of technical ability." IAEA officials have estimated that it will take Iran three years to produce weapons-grade uranium once the Natanz plant resumes work. Given that its Shahab-3 ballistic missile system has the range to hit southern Europe, it is clear that the threat posed by Teheran's hard-line regime is significant and urgent. |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #11 Crazi: No worries--Zenster used to sound EXACTLY like you, and now he's apparently done a 180. I don't believe it, but it would be great to hear his conversion process toward political sanity. How 'bout it Zen? |
| Posted by: ex-lib 2006-01-16 23:40 |
| #10 Zenster: Your Muslim pals do not crave your friendship. PEW polls prove that at every instance. |
| Posted by: CaziFarkus 2006-01-16 23:01 |
| #9 It's a simple message. Any attack on the US or it's allies with Nuclear Devices or other WMD will be met with instant and total retaliation. The Norks and Iran are first on the list. Preemption isn't a realistic option at this point. |
| Posted by: Sock Puppet O´ Doom 2006-01-16 21:17 |
| #8 Ergo: let's nuke Iran, and place Sunni Iraq, Syria and the Saud terrorist entity under nuclear blackmail, without giving a second thought to either the numbers of dead or sovereignty claims of those worthless primitives. For how disgusted I am with Muslims in general, I'm almost amazed that I have to do this but, you're still smoking waaaaay too much rope, CF. I try to remain unconcerned about making more enemies, especially in the Islamic world, yet your plan guarantees making the worst sort of foes. Namely, ones we didn't need to make. Iran's people are pretty well fed up with thier tyrannical government. While they may not all be pro-West, they are certainly sick of the Mullahcracy. WERE WE TO ATTACK IRAN WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS, WE WOULD RIGHTLY MAKE INCONTROVERTIBLE ENEMIES OUT OF NOT JUST ISLAMIC NATIONS, BUT MANY ALLIES AS WELL. You just don't seem to get this with all your "nuke 'em now" spewing. Your logic is on a par with the terrorists who want to attack America with nuclear weapons. More then anything, first use of nuclear weapons by America would justify nuclear terrorism against our nation. WHAT PART OF THAT EQUATION DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND? Fred: When did we forget that enemy life is cheap? While enemy life may be cheap, certainly cheaper than that of our own soldiers, making MILLIONS of new and utterly polarized enemies ALL AT ONCE is worse than stupid. It represents the most shortsighted and hateful thinking possible and places you on a par with Iran's own holocaust-denying president. I certainly hope that Fred has the time to respond to your lunacy as well. While I fully support placing all terrorist sponsors and proliferators on notice that a single nuclear attack on America will get ALL OF THEM glassed over like a museum display case, what you promote is sheer depravity and plays into the terrorists hands better than any other strategy. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-01-16 17:37 |
| #7 When we took a look at what those actions in WWII cost us, as well as what it gained us. |
| Posted by: lotp 2006-01-16 17:27 |
| #6 They already have dirty bomb capacity. And they have a leader who believes that angels are guiding him to final jihad against Western Civilization. And we are sandbagged by alien, suicidal "values" concerning respect for sham Muslim "democracy." Folks: Approximately 100,000,000 people died in the two World Wars. Most were civilians. Prior to Hiroshima, millions of Germans were slaughtered in the Allied bombings. In the magnesium bombing of Tokyo, 200,000 people were burned to death in one night. Annihilation of adversaries is the rule; peaceful co-existence is the exception. The Rainbow Coalition (Bush43) use of limited war in Afghanistan, Iraq and whatever monstrosity comes next, against a mortal enemy, is pure folly. Future generations will hold pilgrimages to spit on GWB's grave, if he doesn't terminate the Iran threat, by any means necessary. Ergo: let's nuke Iran, and place Sunni Iraq, Syria and the Saud terrorist entity under nuclear blackmail, without giving a second thought to either the numbers of dead or sovereignty claims of those worthless primitives. Fred: When did we forget that enemy life is cheap? |
| Posted by: CaziFarkus 2006-01-16 16:37 |
| #5 Due to the simple fact that Iran has continuously concealed nearly every aspect of their nuclear program, ALL ESTIMATES OF WHERE THEY STAND ON AN ATOMIC WEAPONS BUILDUP TIMELINE ARE MEANINGLESS. It is far better to go in and cripple them now than to find out we all were spectacularly wrong in another few months or years. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-01-16 14:29 |
| #4 Last week it was ten years. That's a productive weekend... |
| Posted by: tu3031 2006-01-16 09:43 |
| #3 don't forgits, cheese breath can be deadly. |
| Posted by: Red Dog 2006-01-16 08:35 |
| #2 Yes, but the French Missle Negoitiating Teams are planning to talk any launched nukes into to Med. Kind of a verbal "Missle Command". |
| Posted by: whitecollar redneck 2006-01-16 07:13 |
| #1 Given that its Shahab-3 ballistic missile system has the range to hit southern Europe Isn't France southern europe? |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2006-01-16 05:12 |