It's been a rough year for Syrian President Bashar Assad, and it may get even rougher. With tensions high after another Lebanon bombing, Assad's regime could be shaken to its core if a U.N. probe points to Syrian involvement in the murder of a former Lebanese prime minister. | Ash heap of history, target date: 9-11-2006. |
With few friends left to turn to, Assad flew to Egypt on Sunday to enlist the help of Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak, a longtime U.S. ally, according to two officials familiar with their talks. Mubarak advised Assad to fully cooperate with the probe and surrender any Syrians U.N. investigators name as accomplices in the killing. The Egyptian leader also counseled Assad to order a halt to harshly anti-U.S. comments by Syrian officials and in the state-run media. But Mubarak's plea for cooperation is potentially difficult for Assad because the U.N. search for conspirators could lead them to senior Syrian security officials, members of Assad's inner circle or even relatives.
| Or to Bashir himself, if the story about the taped conversations is to be believed. I have this vision of him holed up in the Presidential Palace™, hollering "You'll never take me alive, coppers!" |
Syria's media, a mirror for government thinking, all but ignored Mehlis last week when he visited Syria to question officials in connection with Hariri's killing. Neither he nor Syria disclosed the names of those questioned, but Lebanese media said they included Syria's last intelligence chief in Lebanon, Brig. Gen. Rustum Ghazale, two aides and Syrian Interior Minister Ghazi Kenaan, who was intelligence chief in Lebanon until five years ago. The Syrian media's treatment of Mehlis' visit, says dissident Michel Kilo, showed the absence of a cohesive government strategy to deal with a potentially dangerous issue. "There has been confusion in the way we dealt with all major issues in the past two years," said Kilo, reached in Damascus by telephone. "If half of what we hear is true, then we are faced with a very dangerous situation and have reason to be very concerned."
Syria has denied involvement in the Hariri killing. On the issue of Iraq, it says it is doing everything it can to stop militants from using its territory to join insurgents there. It also says it has no intelligence operatives left in Lebanon after it completed a troop pullout under pressure last April. However, a series of bombings in Lebanon targeting anti-Syrian figures has raised questions about how much influence Syria retains there. Political talk show host May Chidiac was the latest victim. She had just started her car Sunday when a bomb exploded, ripping off an arm and a leg. Chidiac worked for the private Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation, which opposes a Syrian role in Lebanon.
The United States has not directly blamed Syria for Hariri's killing, but its impatience with Syria appears to be growing. The Bush administration accused Syria last week of meddling in its neighbors' affairs, blocking democracy and failing to stop insurgents from entering Iraq. The State Department also has called Syria a "destabilizing element" in the region, and President Bush has warned that Assad must understand that Washington "takes his lack of action (on Iraq) seriously." Yet the continuing mayhem in Iraq may give Washington pause about doing anything more drastic to bring about regime change in Syria, says one Western government official. One analyst loyal to Assad's regime says Washington will never be satisfied regardless of whether Syria cooperates or not. "The Americans are using the stick, but there is no sign of the carrot," said Imad Fawzi Shueibi. "It makes no sense for Syria to be told to do this, this and that - and get nothing in return." | Not killing you all is the carrot. Think hard on that. |