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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Putin seen as increasingly isolated |
| 2005-05-10 |
| As Russian troops high-stepped through Red Square to commemorate World War II, some observers couldn't help but wonder which legacy Vladimir Putin prefers - the democratic present or the authoritarian past. Many see a leader who is increasingly isolated, accumulating more power while relying on fewer people, and perhaps risking a loss of control over the vast, oil-rich, and nuclear-armed Russian Federation. "Russia is not a strong state, it's a brittle state," said Celeste Wallander, director of the Russia/Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington. Yet President Bush and his aides, while protesting what they call democratic setbacks in Russia, want to maintain their relationship with Putin, the main reason they accepted his invitation to Monday's ceremony on the 60th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany. Bush has said his Russian counterpart is forging democracy in the face of immense challenges after decades of communist repression. "There's a lot we can do together," he said before meeting privately with Putin on Sunday. And Putin himself has angrily disputed allegations that he has cracked down on the press and political opponents, saying democracy is growing at least as well in Russia as in the United States. "It is beyond doubt that the people have chosen democracy, that we have established the institutions of democracy, and that the philosophy of democracy has a place in people's minds," Putin said on CBS' ``60 Minutes'' program broadcast Sunday. Defenders of Putin note the enormous domestic pressures: aggressive business interests, organized crime, crushing poverty, and the internal politics that seem to have always characterized Russian government. The critics' bill of particulars against Putin is growing, however: television stations virtually annexed by the Putin government; political rivals arrested; governor's elections canceled; and the ongoing, brutal, tit-for-tat war with rebels in Chechnya. Yet Putin may also be creating vulnerabilities as well, analysts said, especially if his country is hit with another terrorist attack, as with the 2002 siege of a Moscow theater, or the horrific murders of schoolchildren in Beslan last year. "Putin has amassed so much power, he's making himself the guarantor of Russian safety," said Leon Aron, a Russian-born scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. "And that could fall apart if there's another attack." Russia also faces a ticking time bomb. Its population is expected to fall from 146 million to 104 million over the next half-century, thanks to low rates of fertility and high rates of alcoholism, illness and early death. When it comes to Russia's dodgy health care system, "the government's attitude seems to be pretty close to benign neglect," said Nicholas Eberstadt, an AEI scholar who has studied Russia's demographic trends. Then there are allegations of rampant corruption and oligarchy amid grinding poverty, causing some to pine for the old days of collectivization. Russia's troubles are a main reason the Bush administration wants stability with the Putin government, officials said. U.S. officials have enough on their plate without a Russian crisis, some said: trying to stabilize Iraq; seeking a peace deal between the Israelis and Palestinians; worrying about the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea. Besides, officials and analysts said, there's not a lot the administration could do to actually change Putin's behavior except raise U.S. concerns with the Russian leader. Bush has done so, both this week in Moscow and at a Feb. 24 meeting in the Slovak Republic. Bush and his aides said he is able to have challenging discussions with Putin because the two men have a good personal relationship. "I've got a relationship with President Putin that enables me to be able to have a frank discussion," Bush told Estonian television before his trip. Putin has also been frank, raising questions about the democratic nature of the U.S. Electoral College and the wisdom of the Iraq war. He has also questioned press freedom in the United States. Charles Kupchan, an international relations specialist at Georgetown University, said Bush needs to admonish his Russian friend, "but I don't think anybody expects Putin to run back to Moscow and reverse some of the more authoritarian steps he has taken in the last several years." "I suspect this will be the pattern of the next several years," Kupchan added. Anatol Lieven, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said many in the West are expecting too much from Putin too soon, as it will take at least a generation for Russia to build a strong democracy. Criticism "should be leavened with a recognition that on a number of vital issues, he is still pushing economic reform in the face of the entrenched opposition of public elites and public opinion," Lieven wrote in a recent edition of Foreign Policy. Putin's critics frequently focus on the case of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a former oil magnate who had contributed to Putin's political opponents. He is now awaiting sentencing on a contested tax fraud conviction, though Putin says the case reflects well on his country's independent judiciary. Critics also point to Putin's alleged efforts to influence the contested election in Ukraine. That nation's anti-Russian "Orange Revolution," coming on the heels of the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia, undermines Putin's political position at home. There is some evidence the Bush administration's conservative supporters in the United States may push them to get more aggressive with Putin. "There's been a dramatic, decided and quite dangerous decline of democracy in Russia," said Bruce Jackson, director of the conservative-leaning Project on Transitional Democracies. "They've got to start drawing red lines for Putin's government that haven't been there before." Some Republican members of Congress, meanwhile, have proposed forcing Russia out of the G-8 economic group. Putin plans to host the group's summit next year, and is expected to invest as much prestige in that event as in the 60th anniversary celebration of V-E Day. Bush administration officials said that in some ways Putin is getting a bad rap. While critics ripped Putin for calling the collapse of the Soviet Union the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century - as opposed to the two world wars, or the Holocaust - Bush noted that he devoted most of that speech to the topic of democracy. The questions surrounding Putin will come to a head in 2008, when his presidential term limits are supposed to kick in. Some wonder if he will try to change the rules instead and hold on to power. Meanwhile, supporters of democracy hold their breath about both Putin and the fate of his country. "Russia has nuclear weapons," Wallander said. "When you break something like that, it doesn't break neatly." |
| Posted by:Dan Darling |
| #3 And here's the question: What's the favorite Chechen treat? |
| Posted by: Shipman 2005-05-10 12:14 |
| #2 Putin on the Ritz. |
| Posted by: Deacon Blues 2005-05-10 07:19 |
| #1 And I doubt a'flyin dem dar Soviet-era Commie flags of Fascism is gonna help him become loved - yousa know the US Left, they absolutley and undeniably a'hate the USSR , dats why they a'want America to become the USSA!? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2005-05-10 04:03 |