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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| StrategyPage: China: Rearmament More Rapid Than Reported |
| 2005-02-28 |
| Reports, and digital photos, getting out of China via the Internet, indicate that the modernization of the Chinese armed forces is some two years ahead of the schedules cited by most Western experts. New aircraft, ships and tanks are showing up sooner than expected, and China is spending money on more training for pilots and ship crews. Not as much training as Western forces, but more than in the past for China. It appears that the Chinese defense budget will go up another 10-15 percent next year. This is only about half of what Japan spends, but the Japanese pay much more for personnel and equipment. This gives Japan a qualitative edge that the Chinese are trying to close. China also expects Europe to drop its arms embargo this Summer. This would enable China to more quickly, and cheaply, upgrade warplanes, ships and tanks with more modern, and effective, French and German electronics and weapons. European nations have been selling China hundreds of millions of dollars worth of dual use military equipment each year, but as long as the embargo is in force, explicitly military gear can only be sold under the table and smuggled in. American protests, that selling China weapons might mean the use of those weapons against American forces, has no effect on the French and Germans. Indeed, France was rather pleased when in 1986, a French Exocet anti-ship missile, fired by an Iraqi warplane, heavily damaged an American warship (by mistake, of course.) |
| Posted by:ed |
| #13 So I'm not answering vague questions like "so?" and your link requires registration. Do you want to discuss this, or just be cryptic? |
| Posted by: Tom 2005-02-28 5:00:32 PM |
| #12 China leverages no power over the U. S. If it wants to unload its securities, it makes them worthless. What good would it do to destroy its market? It's like any other creditor; borrow a little money, you've got a creditor, borrow a lot, you've got a partner. China's banking problem is a domestic problem, not international. China does have a lot of problems, but most are doemstic. In addition to the banking problem, we simply don't know what the distribution of incomes is and how much pressure is building up in the lower classes for a part of the pie. The Russian revolution lasted 70 years, almost a lifetime. That would give the Chicom regime until 2020, darn near Chuck's 10 year estimate. While China has dealt with pesky revolts, it has also had lots of melt downs. And it has done precious little evolving. Its long-run ideology reminds me of the long term view the Japanese had in the 1980's just before they started buying U. S. real estate at the peak. The long term Chinese will do the same. |
| Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2005-02-28 4:58:53 PM |
| #11 Umm ... so? (re: Tom) |
| Posted by: Edward Yee 2005-02-28 4:50:46 PM |
| #10 For loads and loads of links, intermixed with my commentary, please see my three part series: China: What the Future May Hold |
| Posted by: Chuck Simmins 2005-02-28 4:47:24 PM |
| #9 We can control how fast they can cash out if we have to. We can destroy their dams and bridges and paralize them if we have to. We can nuke them if we have to. But we don't have to. Isn't it just possible that they are doing logical things for a country that has Putin on their northwest, Kimmie on their northeast, Islamo-nuts to their west, and the need to protect oil shipments around the southeast? We're talking about a Chinese defense budget that's only half of Japan's -- let's not over-react. |
| Posted by: Tom 2005-02-28 4:36:02 PM |
| #8 Please link to these estimates, Chuck ... Tractor - "best of the West, worst of the East," then? (capitalism + authoritarianism) / Got a strategy for fixing this? What defines "Chinese identity" and what is this ideology? Andres Oppenheimer's take is pretty interesting: http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/columnists/andres_oppenheimer/11003398.htm?1c |
| Posted by: Edward Yee 2005-02-28 4:33:26 PM |
| #7 Chuck Simmons makes a good point. The more debt, the more worth (as we well know). China leverages huge power over the US with all it's foreign reserves, which - if cashed in - will throw the US economy in tatters (granted, that depreciation would lower the value so fast that it would be nill before it was all cashed in), and its position in APEC is only growing, demonstrated by recent economic ties with Indonesia and South Korea. Further, the Chinese Navy is building more classes of warships than the total amount of US warships in several of its smaller classes, adding to Chinese marine power and prestige. China's enormous political weight in East Asia, financial pull with the US, and growing oil consumption has pushed it to expand into markets in remote regions such as Brazil and South Africa, with solid investments in infrastructure. 3 thousand years of dealing with pesky revolts (some of which have succeeded) have not toppled the Chinese identity, that, and the long-run ideology, are things that the West has yet to learn. I don't see warlordism anytime soon any more than I see a failure in the US military hegemony |
| Posted by: Tractor 2005-02-28 4:00:25 PM |
| #6 China is about a decade away from collapse. It needs two things to stave that off, capital and resources. Taiwan means capital. Taiwan has the third largest foreign currency reserves, and a well established industrial base. Think of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan as the largest bank robbery in history. The Russian Far East means resources. Already the Chinese are the fourth largest ethnic group in russia, and they are the fastest growing. About 20% of the population of the RFE is Chinese. The RFE is going Chinese and the Russians can do little or nothing about it. The only question is whether or not China lasts long enough. They're broke, and only the trade surplus with the United States is keeping them going. Their banking system is verging on collapse, with recent estimates showing that nearly all of their loans are bad. 90+% bad! Various regions of the country, such as the Shanghai area, are all but independent. Breakdown into warlords is an economic hiccup away. |
| Posted by: Chuck Simmins 2005-02-28 3:32:23 PM |
| #5 thanks for your intelligent input trial tractor jurisegs button4u troll |
| Posted by: Frank G 2005-02-28 3:01:23 PM |
| #4 Stay alert neocons: China rises again. Listen to the tiger roar and shudder in your whimpy 2 hundred year history. |
| Posted by: trial 2005-02-28 2:54:10 PM |
| #3 I thought they wer going down the drain yesterday, Chuck. What's the story? |
| Posted by: Mrs. Davis 2005-02-28 2:51:41 PM |
| #2 Rearmament More Rapid Than Reported Isn't it usually the way? Are we surprised??? |
| Posted by: anonymous2u 2005-02-28 12:36:54 PM |
| #1 Japan is a long-term target. First up is Taiwan, then the Russina Far East. |
| Posted by: Chuck Simmins 2005-02-28 10:33:16 AM |