JPost - Reg req'd so I'm posting it all..
It was a telling sign when senior commanders in the Central Command recently started counting the number of Palestinian stone-throwing incidents in the West Bank. For the past four years of the latest conflict, called by the Palestinians the "Aksa Intifada," the army counted mainly suicide bombings, shootings and petrol bomb attacks. Stonings weren't even mentioned. Looking at the dry statistics, the level of terror has been reduced drastically in the past few months to what appears to be on par with that before September 2000. There could be a suicide bombing tomorrow, but then again there were suicide bombings before this latest round of conflict, too.
| Amazing, what a few deaths will do for regional peace and stability... |
The Aksa Intifada is over. No one in the IDF would be foolish enough to make such a far-reaching statement, but the statistics speak for themselves. From the IDF's perspective, the relative calm Israel is experiencing now is not connected to the death of Yasser Arafat or other changes in the Palestinian nation, but is rather the direct result of the aggressive action against terrorists by the IDF, aided by the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) and Border Police. The army said it has arrested six suicide bombers since Arafat died a month ago. This shows the motivation is still there, but the capabilities are steadily deteriorating.
| Prob'ly the action started dropping off when Yassin and Rantissi departed this vale of tears in rapid succession... |
For the moment, the Central Command can mark for itself an impressive achievement. "Our rate of catching terrorists is now quicker than their rate of replacing themselves," said a senior officer.
| I think even the Paleos might see an end in sight, unless they take the opportunity to miss an opportunity again... |
This means that the arrests and targeting of key terrorist cell leaders happen about as often as they take up command. They are nabbed before they gain sufficient expertise. In many cases, lower-level activists find themselves at the head of a cell, and even then spend most of their time avoiding arrest. Just in the past two months, security forces have arrested some 800 suspects, including nearly 300 wanted fugitives, in hundreds of raids. Families have also turned in 20 suspected suicide bombers since September. That said, the Central Command recently published a booklet with the names and photos of more than 500 new suspected terrorists, drawn from a bottomless well. "These guys are young, very young," said an intelligence officer. "They don't survive long."
| Youth brings enthusiasm, leading to a bullet. Age brings a bit of wisdom, leading to a rocket. Works for me. |
Perspective is needed here. By the army's count, there are 2,075,000 Palestinians living in the West Bank and 229,000 Jewish settlers in 123 settlements. The State of Israel deploys about 10,000 soldiers to protect the country from Palestinian terrorism. There are roughly 40 terrorist cells operating throughout the territories, mostly inside the large Arab cities. There is no longer any organizational discipline among terrorist groups. The groups themselves are more or less cocktails of Hamas, Fatah Tanzim, Islamic Jihad and PFLP members. IDF sources described them as "less ideological and more territorial," employing gang-type extortion to survive.
| I think of them as gangs with poltical faces... |
The Palestinians are said to be in a state of anarchy, accumulated fatigue and suffering from a loss of a sense of internal security from increasing crime, murder and burglary. Only 10 percent of crimes ever reach court, and there is a return to the clan justice of old. IDF intelligence holds that nationalist terror is on the decline and global terrorism is taking its place. This can be seen in the increasing involvement of Hizbullah in Palestinian terror. The army maintains that about 75% of all West Bank terrorist cells are funded, directed and even armed by Hizbullah. It is also expected that Hizbullah will try to infiltrate agents into the territories and terrorists may adopt some of its public-relations tactics like filming attacks.
| Hezbollah will probably provide the incident leading to war with Iran and/or Syria... |
Much has been written about the IDF tactics developed to wage this low-intensity conflict. Technology such as sensors and surveillance tools, together with an overhauled doctrine, have allowed the army to reduce its battle-order significantly in the past year. That means fewer soldiers are performing more missions. Also, operations that once took a few days can now be implemented with three or hours' notice, and sometimes even less. Tanks have not been used in the West Bank for more than two years. The IDF is proud of its record. It feels it has met its goals of providing Israel with an acceptable level of security, preventing internationalization of the conflict, blocking Palestinian achievements through violence and providing the government with an environment suitable for negotiations. |